Survival Of The Fittest

also uh friendly reminder due to things getting heated that mafia is a Fun Game and we should all maybe take a collective deep breath

Adrenaline shock + mislynch record > Homework, right?

>_<

And yeah, I'm not mad in any way, shape, or form if that's in doubt. Kermit's cool and I think this was actually freaking amazing. I look forward to chatting about it after the game.

I'm just giving in to my snarky/sarcastic sense of humor in the meantime. I'm actually kinda thrilled that something is happening at the moment and having fun. I've felt useless this whole game. Now something interesting is happening.

But since you posted wondering why - again, look at my math. I *could* be lying about my role, I suppose, but you don't need to believe me to see that Kermit's case has to be false.

I will agree about Cactus though.

Shiola and I go for drinks one night - one night, and shit gets real? My goodness.

Preface - I am drunk.

I'm operating under the assumption that everyone probably has a clone. That'd make flavour sense.

Kermit makes some very bold assertions.

Vyse makes some very interesting counterpoints.

Fenris is doing a very good job of supportive arguments without getting in the middle or choosing a side in Vyse/Kermit.

Who is shade. Who is Jimmy. But who was phone?

I'd very much like to see if Fen pings dead or loses a clone after the orange alert. If not, I'd guess that means someone took a shot at me.

Maybe more thoughts when the shots wear off.

its funny cause dodd took shots both bullet and alcohol-wise

jimmy needs to talk more. shade needs to talk... at all. id be wanting to policy lynch shade for inactivity if there weren't things going on but like, there are things going on.

at this point the possibilities are basically

1. vyse is scum
2. kermit is scum
3. theyre both town, neither of them is lying and theres some bastard element in play here convincing kermit of vyse's guilt

... but once again if we keep using the "well its a bastard game" argument we will never get anywhere.

i'm kind of suspect on vyse's insistence on keeping a part of his role to himself at this point. normally i could speculate on what kind of role he could have thats both important enough to not be revealed but doesnt perform a night action, but in a game like this one it could be basically anything that came out of toben's head, so that seems like a bit of a fool's errand anyhow. i have a guess, but guesses aren't worth much.

... i actually have a very out-there scenario in mind that seems possible but would also go against how the tracker role usually works. it's technically possible, its just a little out there and idk if i should speculate so baselessly. >_>

I would like to see your speculations.

I would also like a Vyse role claim - which I know, aggressive ask, but I think it would help me put all the pieces swirling around in my booze-addled brain.

i mean i can ask an easy question to start with @ you, dodd

do you have a night action role? for the time being i have no reason to doubt that if you do it isn't a town role, but if you don't have one then my theory is irrelevant.

Yes I do. I do not want to elaborate yet until Vyse claims for reasons that I think will become very clear.

cool. i'll spit out my theory then.

my theory is that vyse is some kind of. idk what this role is called in common parlance but i come from epicmafia so i know it as the grandma, lmao. basically a role that attacks anyone who targets him by any method. so my theory is that you targetted him with whatever your night action is, he shot you, and that registered to kermit as vyse targetting you.

that would be a bit of an unusual result for a tracker, since from my knowledge trackers dont usually detect reflexive roles like that. they usually only target people who intentionally target others with night actions. but it's possible that toben either didn't know that or did know that but decided to say fuck it and report results like that anyway.

so yeah, that's my theory. it would account for both vyse and kermit's sides of the story without necessarily involving any bastard mechanics, unless you count results being reported that way as bastard.

its also more or less the only explanation i can think of for vyse not wanting to claim while being town and also not having a night action

this is up to post #152. if there's stuff after that, I haven't read it.

i assumed people would, like, look at the quoted stuff in-context and also that everyone who isn't you, me, or fenris, is gonna be reading this all at once. (and also I'm not gonna bloat the page with quotes of quotes)

this is back-and-forth between the old and new posts

Vyse, Fenris, what do you shot Adam last night? Why are the two of you so deadset on Adam being town?

Commie frog wrote:I think we all know the what deal with this game is

also commie frog wrote:actually I do believe there's four!!!!!!!!

I'm interested in why you didn't mention me saying either of the above^ in your response (YOU TOO, FENRIS.)

secretly Dick Cheney wrote:Oh look. Suddenly, I'm not an idiot going 'alphalul no way ur in bastard game!!2!"

hey stop doing that thing you're yelling at me for (strawmanning, twisting words, etc etc). The point I was making was that if the game has known bastard elements then you take those into account. I'm not saying "LITERALLY ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE". I'm saying if the game isn't a vanilla game you shouldn't treat it like a vanilla game. To me, that's common sense, but I get that common sense is subjective GOD THAT SOUNDED PASSIVE-AGGRESSIVE AS FUCK BUT IT WASN'T MEANT TO BE
Let's go over the bastard mechanics that we know of:

• Everyone flips "TRAITOR".

• No role info other than flavour is provided in flips.

• Faction flavour name not provided in flips (I dunno if it's bastard but it's sure as hell noteworthy)

• Everyone is a one-shot bulletproof.

• Strongman not confirmed. It's unlikely that there's a strongman in this game for reasons im about to get into woah waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaoooooooooooooooooooooooo

Ok now combine that with this list of important shit that's happened thusfar during the game:

• Irena Ivanov is lynched, with votes from (in order) Fenris, Kermit, Boogie, Adam, and Jimmy. Irena flips "TRAITOR".

• Boogie is nightkilled. He flips "TRAITOR". Assuming he too was a one-shot bulletproof, he was either targeted by a strongman or more than one killing faction

• Adam gets shot in the night, leaving him with one life remaining. He was either targeted by a vig, Friend Computer, or one killing faction.

• Kermit claims to have tracked Vyse during the night, and to have seen that Vyse targeted Adam with a night ability. Vyse denies all allegations and claims Kermit is full of shit.

Ok so for the nightkills, here are the possible scenarios:
-At least two groups killed boogie. One group (Vyse) shot Adam. Kermit is telling truth.
-At least two groups killed boogie. One group (not Vyse) shot Adam. Kermit is full of shit.
-Strongman from sole mafia group killed boogie. Vig (Vyse) shot Adam. Kermit is telling truth.
-Strongman from sole mafia group killed boogie. Vig (not Vyse) shot Adam. Kermit is full of shit.
-Strongman vig killed boogie. Sole mafia group (Vyse) shot Adam. Kermit is telling truth.
-Strongman vig killed boogie. Vig (not Vyse) shot Adam. Kermit is full of shit.
-Strongman of some kind killed boogie. Adam shot by computer. Kermit is full of shit.

OK so my train of thought is as follows: Why include a strongman killing role in a game where everyone is a one-shot bulletproof. Surely, everyone's a bulletproof for a reason(!!!hinthinthint!!!), and including a strongman would throw everything out of whack. Using good old Occam's Razor, we (or at least I) can deduce that instead of MW being like "Ahahaha. I know what will make those darn handlers cry! Making everyone oneshot bulletproof, one group a strongman, and another not a strongman, thereby making the strongman incredibly overpowered! [insert Tom Waits impression here]", he in reality was like "Ahahaha. Making everyone a oneshot bulletproof will balance there being shitloads of killing roles!".

also I find it much more likely that MW was like "Ahahaha what if I make a shitload of killing factions but keep everyone in the dark as to which dead person is on what team so that everyone gets ~paranoid~ about what exactly is going on." than him being like "Boy I sure hate everyone on this site! I will show them my wrath by making a game of mafia where it's literally impossible to know if people are/were mafia or town while making the game look like it has multiple scum factions! I'll sure show those people who like playing the game of mafia who's boss!"

Therefore, common sense (as defined by me because literally everyone thinks they have common sense COMMON SENSE IS FAKE AND SUBJECTIVE *FROG SCREECHES*) dictates that A. There are no strongmen, and B. that there are a shitload of killing roles.

^all that shit will be relevant in a second

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Commonsense dictates you are scum.

Does it though? What I'm asking right here (along with three times with more sass in the first big ol post) is for you to actually outline the reasoning that led you to that conclusion. You say common sense dictates that there are less than three scum factions (thereby necessitating that a strongman killed boogie), and because of that, I, Kermit am a big ol liar. I say common sense dictates the exact opposite. I just want you to outline your thought process in detail. Restate shit if you have to. Just dodging is a bad look. The reason why I said stuff in your first post didn't make sense is because apparently we came to wildly different conclusions based on roughly the same information except we both know one which of us is full of crap. It'll be easier for people to figure out which of us is lying if we just lay out our "thought processes" because it'll become readily apparent which one is made up.

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Yeah, darn. That definitely sounds like "Watch out for Vyse!!!2!22!!!"

though THAT'S NOT WHAT I MEANT :C I will concede that it sure as hell looks like that's what I said boogie meant. When I read the boogie quote, my brain skipped over the "lover or lyncher" part so I interpreted the "watch out" as meaning the role PM told them that the team leader was a scary man.
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The reason why I didn't immediately yell out "hey that vyse guy visited adam" at the beginning of the dayphase was because until Adam said he'd been shot, I didn't have a clue as to what your role actually was. Like, if Adam hadn't announced that he'd been shot I'd probably just have assumed you were some investigative role and kept quiet about it.
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Really convenient how you have a guilty result you trust so much in a bastard game, the very first phase it's possible to claim such.

I trust the result because while it's a bastard game, there's nothing to me pointing towards the results I get being wacky.

As for convenience: yup, sure is! It's also convenient how at least two killing roles targeted boogie. Convenient evidence doesn't equal fake evidence. It just means I got lucky. Too illustrate my point, here is a vaguely relevant excerpt from the thread that I reached my artistic pique in:

I can't believe this is a thing I wrote wrote:Michael jumped back a bit at Beryl's sudden movements, stopping himself just close of the ctenetank. Okay so Beryl was also feeling spooky today because Jesus F. Christ what. She did some talking about like, how you could never really be sure what you were seeing or whatever, some post-modernist thing. Michael got that. How like, those ctenophores in the tank really were spaceships, or that the universe started existing last Thursday, or that the earth was flat. The thing was, though, you could discount a lot of that stuff based on evidence and likelyhood and how many assumptions you make to get there. Not discount it entirely, because, well, it could be true, but use your observations about the world to classify the chance that the idea was true. Like for example, 9/11 being this whole big government conspiracy. There was a common talking point of the conspiracy theorists about how one of the hijacker's passports was found on the ground after the collision, about how unlikely it would be for a passport to survive a plane crashing into a building, and the fact that it would've been "physically impossible" for the passport to have traveled the distance it had (according to a guy who probably wasn't a physicist). In Michael's belief, that proved that the government didn't do 9/11. The theory assumed that the government was both competent enough to crash fucking airplanes/holograms/missiles/?????—it depended on the theory—into the twin towers, and keep everyone involved quiet about it, but be incompetent enough for like, some CIA intern get distracted during his coffee break and remember that he was supposed to be planting the passport at ground zero, but then one of the towers collapsed before he could plant it (because of the coffee break) so then he was just like "fuck it" and threw the passport some dumb place. What really happened that day was a bunch of shitheads hijacked airplanes and committed mass-murder, and the government (which had received information that something like this might have happened) was just like "Oh fuck we didn't think they'd actually do it" and that was that.


Michael hadn't taken his ADHD meds that morning.

"You know I'm famous for my excited vibration abilities, Beryl." He responded.

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I probably forgot something but it's almost 1 AM and i like sleeping!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So i sleep now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I AM PHONE

FENRIS IS PERSPHONE

I AM ALSO SLEEP GOODBYE

Oh frick Kermit posted a huge wall of text I'm not reading in preview. I'll update this afterwards.

I'm Team Leader. I can use orange text because I have orange clearance. I don't know if there's any significance to that. I tried it earlier this phase to see if something would happen. I can't tell yet. My role is announced in the game. (But we knew that). I have a clone. (Bulletproof) I may have some hidden triggers. I was told my vote might carry more weight but it appears to be normal based on early experimentation - it's possible this either has a condition or may just be a misreading of my role PM...?

(Actually maybe a vote in orange text? Let's try.)

VOTE: Kermit

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@Fen - Nope. You're reading way too much into this. I strongly believe in not revealing my role unless I have to, with the idea that it makes it harder for Mafia to NK optimally. They have to risk killing me and finding out I'm not that valuable - or not killing me and finding out that I am. It's a good policy. I don't stick to it religiously, but it's a good rule of thumb.

Unfortunately, this became the focus instead of my math.

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RE: Kermit Read: Taking too long on this. Updated and shortened my read.

Kermit was suspicious for hanging around the edges of the game bantering. It was trivial, but as decent an early lead as any. The thing is, bantering is a very safe thing for scum to do, and Kermit was noticeable in that he also threw light shade at the inactives, while his activity was actually content free. This is complicated by that being a very Kermit thing to do, apparently.

The second part was his rush to vote me based on flimsy speculation from Dodd. It's phrased as serious joke. Best of both worlds approach. Good if it goes somewhere, meaningless and safe if not.

Is this an airtight case? Heck no. There's a reason why I didn't push him hard until just now. It's just me saying that I don't think this is Town Kermit With A Bastard Role :/

But couple that with his response to my refutation of his case, which really just tried to distract from the issue without saying anything - Townies can have bad responses, but they tend to double down on their arguments, not actively try to obfuscate them. Look back at my posts, I spelled out where he did this. It reads like him setting up a bad case and panicking once he realized it.

This ties in with him being a possible lyncher or incredibly bold scum. It pushes me away from Bastard Town.

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Real talk -

I don't know if you remember Aperture Science, but there was a point where a scum member was caught out by a Townie for claiming something impossible. Said Townie called them out on their obvious lie and....The rest of Town ignored them and focused on semantics. Scum went on to win the game.

I feel like I'm in a similar situation right now. I've posted my math. (which is that, if Boogie had a clone like the rest of us, he must have been targeted twice. Meaning it would take three different killers for Kermit to be correct. This is unrealistic. One Town killer is plausible given the BP mechanic. More is broken.) Do you think I'm wrong here? Because if I'm right, this seems fairly straightforward. The only part I can't prove is that I didn't take a night action, but you don't need to believe that to see the rest.

Fenris, I'd legitimately appreciate this. It kinda feels like your last post weighs down in the middle without addressing what I'd argue is a relatively airtight case - Kermit cannot be right unless there are three killers, and/or a Town strongman EVEN IF I"M LYING. (As to me lying, you could argue that, but do you think it's actually the most likely answer in this scenario? Even if I'm lying KERMIT IS STILL PROVEN TO BE LYING/WRONG Seriously, don't even listen to me for a few. Take a bit to put aside paranoia and think about whether it actually holds up.)

me paris

im tired. cannot long post. i think dodd is town bc gut read mostly. it is an onion i am willing to revisit after we straighten the rest of this mess out.

also because i would not trust myself to post drunk if i was mafia lmao

(that part is not serious!!!)

UGH VYSE JUST POSTED A LONG THING ILL RESPOND TO THAT SEPARATELY

im So tired. okay theory most likely disproven THOUGH if dodd did target vyse last night im gonna consider the possibility of it being a hidden bastard mechanic vyse has because that seems possible and would be a hell of a coincidence otherwise. not to say it cant be a coincidence, cause it could be.

i do not have the spoons to be as serious and go post by post and shit like i did in real housewives (I WAS MAFIA IN THAT ONE ANYWAY SO ALL MY DEEP INTRICATE READS WERE REALLY JUST ME FUCKING WITH YALL) so im mostly just posting what sticks out and what comes to mind. i genuinely just. don't have the processing capability atm to grok a lot of this.

what i will say is that having a minimum of three nightkills scans, though I would be interested to know if anyone else got shot, bc if no one else did that can't be proven. it basically comes down to whether or not a strongman exists.

right now i am mildly leaning toward trusting vyse over kermit and that comes down at least in part to roleclaims. kermit's claim is pretty standard, vyse's is... weird, and would be a bit harder to make up. at the very least we've seen that he is in fact allowed to write in orange.

i know yall want me to Make Up My Goddamn Mind but i should probably revisit this when im less groggy sorry

It's also possible that Cactus targeted a PGO, I suppose, while we're baselessly speculating. Feels like it'd be in line with the tone of the game.

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I feel like my math got lost in this wall, so let me repost it for convenience: (And by Kermit's request)

I believe this is a legitimate game at it's core: That is to say, there's a Town and a Mafia. (I know the former.) I know from talking with Murder (especially after Turtle's Bastard Mafia) that he enjoys trolling and playing with the structure of the game without undercutting the game mechanics or concept entirely. (Like say, Yugi or Naft) (Not his exact words, but it's been years so I'm paraphrasing really, really hard based on memory. I'm not inclined to dig throiugh Discord and Tapatalk to figure)

It's Bastard as all get-out, but I don't think it's like Yugi's game, where we weren't actually playing a Mafia game. (It was actually kinda amusing, but I feel like there was too much pent up emotion for that twist to work :/)

So unless this game is completely Bastard, there literally can't be three killing roles, even with the BP mechanic - not without entirely destroying the game. That gives us potentially two phases of play, if it were true. I don't believe that But we have near-certain confirmation that Boogie was targeted twice during the night, because of the BP mechanic. This indicates that Boogie was targeted by scum.

Then add on my claim, and Kermit goes from wrong to suspicious. If I were scum, I didn't have to pick a fight with him btw. I guess that's not too major in this fake-flip game, but still worth nothing.

It's not absolutely airtight, but it seems to track beyond a reasonable doubt. If it doesn't, this game is hopeless to the point where we might as well just enjoy the ride. I have factored in the Bastard game, but as has been said, if it's so bad as this, there's literally nothing we can do about this stuff. We can't stop playing the game. My .02.