Survival Of The Fittest

oh and yeah the "nothing to gain by bussing ricky that early" remark is also kinda suspect for the reason fen said

i just checked and blizz actually hasn't been online since before the phase started, so i'm guessing there's some irl business she's taking care of

ah rip

im gonna do a post analysis of blizz in the am just to see if i can piece her thoughts together. might also look at some dead people idk. trying to work thru all available data

want to state for the record that i like the small game format because going thru literally everything anyone has said all game is like, Possible, even if its kind of tedious

good Night

Yeah, as established last round, looking at Blizz is behavior deemed suspicious due to the positive read from Jimmy. If I were mafia I’d not go down this attention-grabbing route that was previously established to immediately draw suspicion. I realiZed it would do that before I posted it but I still did because I still find you and Fen to be less suspicious just in terms of mafia content, disregarding the read

You = Boogie, it is late

It is 4 am and I have been struck by clarity because mafia tortured me BUT, I’m 90% certain Boogie is town and I can back it up with more explanation at not 4 am.

Alright, alright, first of all fuck me for not being here for the lynch, it's Thanksgiving weekend up in Canada. As for my dismissing a bussing strategy, my reasoning was mainly that the mafia was 2 people. However, I am not that knowledgeable on mafia strategy, so I could be wrong. And true, accusing another mafia and getting them to flip mafia looks a lot better on you than getting your lynch wagon on a townie, even if the mafia is smaller.

Oh yeah, here's my read on Boogie going through post history.

Their first introduction post is just a statement of what the game is. Not much to glean here, unless it's some crazy backhanded confession of being mafia, which is really probably isn't. Their reaction to being voted by Kermit is rather minimal, which kind of makes sense since it's a joke vote. Though, is it true that the way one reacts to a joke vote can say a lot about them? The thing is, this isn't a reaction, at least not one we can get a lot of information from. It could be a smart move for scum, but it could just be a townie who's not worried. Later, I believe, is when people started getting suspicious due to their quietness, but DM defended themselves by saying they could stop being quiet whenever they wanted. Now, I'm fairly certain this is a joke/not terribly serious, since Boogie has stated their reasons for being quiet. After Kermit is nightkilled, they also expressed remorse. Seems everyone expressed remorse. Though in this post, DM named MW and Rugga as people they thought were town. After being asked for reads, it appeared DM stalled for time, perhaps to go over the posts up until this point again. The method of stalling is a bit more bizarre than 'I need time to gather my thoughts' and I still have no idea what it's supposed to mean. Maybe it's not supposed to mean anything. In a post I somehow missed analyzing more in-depth from Rugga, she votes for him based on his low activity apparently being characteristic of Mafia!DM, and that less engaged players are more likely to be the mafia that killed kermit (though honestly a mafia that wants to get stuff done stalling killing a target because they're fun is a bit ehhh, but I suppose it's a lead. But, the fact that Rugga, another person big on flavour, is casting suspicion on less flavourful players is a squinty thing I somehow missed in my read of her. Not the biggest thing, but something to remember, I suppose.) Once again, DM says they feel hurt that they are accused of killing Kermit, and stalls for time to get their reads up in a more conventional way. Now, we finally get to our reads. Since most of the players are listed here, and a good number of them have had their allegiances revealed. Looks like Boogie was right about MW and Jimmy, at least. Notably, there aren't any real scum-reads from boogie, which I guess is forgivable given the point of the game we were in. Afterwards, Skraal states the reads aren't helpful and votes for DM on that regard. We know now that we really shouldn't have lynched the guy, so I suppose she's a bit more trustworthy than most, but they were still a townie who's just as in the dark as everyone else. In return, Boogie voted for Skraal, for reasons that aren't explained in that post, but presumably because Skraal's accusation didn't sit well, then asks for thoughts from MW, Fen, and Ricky. MW I assume Dm trusts, Fen and Ricky seemed to be people who they wanted more solid reads on. When we were one vote away from lynching Boogie, they claimed vanilla townie, and then some shenanigans with card games, for... reasons? Of course, they have said they are stressed a bit, so perhaps it's their alternative to playing with flavor. So, maybe the derailing Skraal described was unintentional, but of course scum wouldn't say they were intentionally derailing the conversation- both are possibilities. And now I am reminded I hammered our Doctor, which still hurts my soul. This is when DM asks for the cop to give their results probably regretting the lynch as much as most people did- which is exactly what happens. Bless Jimmy. Another reads post, in which DM states they will be voting for Ricky, who did in fact, turn out to be mafia. Notably names Rugga as someone who they think is town, and seems to be suspicious of anyone who brings up the godfather theory. I suppose that since in a two-person mafia, we already know they had a roleblocker, the chance of there being a godfather is quite a bit less. Finally votes Ricky, after the claim of being a roleblocker, and some discussion from others. Seems pretty darn final on it. Turns out to be right. Perhaps bussing, as others have suggested. Plus, giving townpoints to rugga for voting for ricky before the claim gave us massive push forward is a bit ehhhh but I can see where they're coming from, I guess. One of their last big acts is saying that they're suspicious of Fen, though they later award them townpoints.

Overall: Leaning town on DM, unless the mafia agreed that throwing one of them under the bus was a good idea. I suppose you could afford to lose your roleblocker, since by that point both town powerroles were confirmed dead anyhow. Still, overall townish.

BOOGIE IS TOWN. THIS MAKES ME EXTRA SUSPECT OF BLIZ

Ok I'm here with a more coherent less shouty and insane explains. This isn't airtight, but I think it's fairly good and it also relies on you trusting my word for lore, which you may not want to do and I understand that because paranoia all the time everywhere in this game.

OK

So it's clear based on the claims and the people who have died so far that Brackie has pulled one character from each city. There's no repeats on cities at all and he said he would do as much before the game started. Ricky's fake claim was from the same city as his real role, Potomac (which I never watched and is less well known that some of the other cities). That follows that even if we haven't been truthful about our roles, we have all be truthful about what city we are repping, and we have to be or we would have risked overlap.


Boogie is someone from New York, I'm someone from Orange County, Fen is someone from Beverly Hills and Bliz is someone from Atlanta.

The thing about that is that the most evil people I can think of from New York can't hold a candle to the most evil people from Orange County, Beverly Hills and Atlanta. For some reason that city is generally more chilled out and I can't imagine that Brackie would choose one of them over one of the other three of us for mafia.

Based on what I read about Karen who is our one revealed mafia, she is quite evil and not very entertaining so I'm making the assumption that that is indeed the metric we're using for mafia. To be at least some level of evil.

The most evil people from New York are probably Jill Zarin, Aviva Drescher and Bethenney Frankel, but really the most their behavior rises to is "jerk." Jill was mad that Bethenney got successful and told people not to film with her in an effort to push her off the show and made up bad excuses to be mad at her and then lied about things to get out of doing work/ going to events. However.......


I'll be fair and include myself as a suspect. The most evil person fro Orange County is Vicki Gunvalson, who is the only person in the entire franchise to be there from the very beginning. Her sins include cheating on her husband, divorcing him to be with her boyfriend Brooks who tried to show her daughter his penis and told her daughter's husband to start beating her. A recording of this was presented to Vicki which she dismissed and continuing dating the guy. She then acted as an accomplice to his FAKING CANCER for an entire season until that whole thing was toppled and when she was caught out doing that, tried to make a distraction by falsely telling people one girl's husband was gay and the other girl's husband beats her. For all of these things and more, she never showed a shred of remorse. Vicki is also, though, tragically stupid along with being an awful narcissist.

In Beverley Hills (Fen) we have Lisa Vanderpump. She is a puppet master who has completely ruined a least one life and attempted to push the fact that another cast member was faking her illness for attention in an attempt to destroy them. She casually asks people horrible things about themselves in an attempt to undermine them via concern troll. I've only watched a little of Beverly Hills so this isn't as comprehensive as Vicki who I watched all of, but she is bad.

And in Atlanta we have quite a few to choose from. I'd guess Pheadra, the lawyer/ mortician (yes, she is both) who lied about being 9 months pregnant and said it was a premature baby to hide that she'd had premarital sex with her ex-con husband. She's a fairly frequent slut shamer that deals in lies and betrayals fairly frequently. Was recently fired from the show after lying and telling people that a cast member named Kandi had drugged and raped another girl from their cast in her sex dungeon basement.


This is super circumstantial I know, but I just feel like Brackie wouldn't pass up these spectacularly horrible people for the mafia above the mearly unpleasant people Boogie's would be.

nice

on one hand that all makes good sense but on the other hand that basically runs down to me being mafia which i obviously can't accept so i don't actually know how to respond

I have more thoughts and such so I'm not saying for us to do anything specifically at the moment. I'm down to you and Bliz. I mean there's me as well, but if I'm scum there's little benefit to me clearing Boogie besides trying to get him to vote my way.

let me consume food and then i will think harder because i'm kind of lost

To simplify my argument essentially comes down to the fact that we're each from a franchise and Boogie is less likely to be a mafia member because the people from his franchise are overall less evil than the other remaining franchises represented.

This is very unfortunate because I wish I had another person familiar with the flavor to back me up here like Jimmy.

This also doesn't account for all possible scenarios like Brackie just choosing someone from New York anyway, but having Boogie be Dorinda who is as far from evil as possible as a safe claim and then having him be a New York mafia person who would be fairly benign next to some of the truly spectacular monsters in this show seems like.......unlikely. I don't feel it in my guts. My guts are at peak squishy intuitiveness due to the month of October.