Survival Of The Fittest

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:10 am**

If no one replaces Cactus he will be mod killed at the end of Night One and marked as such.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:51 am**

I'll do another effortpost in the morning, and respond to your guys' responses then as well.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:57 am**

Zetsu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:42 am
MW wrote:Instead, we've got a claimed VT under heavy suspicion dictating to town what they should do if he gets NKed and like... that is never going to happen (or at least, scum isn't gonna do it). Why on earth would scum shoot someone loudly drawing focus with no worthwhile role to remove?
Can you point me at where he does this, perchance? I'm definitely seeing attempts to shape the narrative, but not in this particular way. Also, dictating to town what they should do if he gets NK'd feels like a pretty neutral move at worst? Maybe even town-ish? I do that all the time as town: if I get NK'd, this is who you should be suspicious of (and then NK analysis turns into a big WIFOM clusterfuck anyways, but eh).

Jace wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:22 pmIf Dodd turns out to be scum, that's gonna set off some scum-alarms in me toward Slam. If I get sniped during the night phase, I would find that very incriminating towards him and possibly a few others so if that happens, please don't waste the chance it'll provide you guys to scumread some of the people here.
^This is what I was referring to--there's some vagueness but a specific contingent drive against Jack that doesn't sit great with me for reasons explained above.

Zetsu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:49 am @MW

If I'm following Paige correctly, I think the policy lynch is one because it feels like we're forcing the mod's hand, and that feels...wrong? Nobody's going to be placing into Dodd's slot with such a train on his head, so it feels kinda like we've gamed the system by forcing the modkill of cactus's slot, while also getting a second lynch. Effectively, it's like we get a double lynch on day 1 since cactus is mainly not going to be replaced because he'd be lynched anyways. Feels a little rough on Dea to have to balance around that, if that makes sense. Like, we'd be gunning for Dodd if he were still in the game, so it feels kinda shady to gun for another lynch instead, and then let Dodd get modkilled in a pseudo-second-lynch.
I don't 100% agree with this...

but where I'm sitting is this: Jace is being cooperative in replying (mostly--I want my gut hunch reads dangit!) and giving us stuff to work from and I certainly don't object to the empty slot elimination. I'm willing to take his playing ball as constructive and give a little time to see what happens, but do want to caution that we're gonna see a more coordinated scum team next phase and while Jace has by virtue of his claim proven eminently expendable even if he is telling the truth, the risk about that position is letting someone walk it down until the numbers are such that they're actually not expendable simply by virtue of being a warm "town" body and then suddenly they have a perfect reason never to get shot and force town to roll the dice every time because calling their bluff could mean ending the game. So let's not let that happen if the evidence of dubious allegiance mounts.

Also obligatory warning: in ~five minutes I turn back into a pumpkin until after work tomorrow (about when I started going on a tear tonight) so like for practicality reasons I also can't advocate super hard for going on a big chase when I know I'm not gonna be around to contribute in material fashion for a large chunk of it leading up to the deadline. I am very set on not having this splat into going to bed without dinner, to bring the metaphor back, but if we are going that way it'd be super lovely if we made the most of the time left in the phase by having everyone who can/cares to dump whatever reads they have (however slight)--I'll do the same when I get back after work so like please nobody randomly hammer for no reason before then or I'll cut you, yes?

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:58 am**

Oh phooey. Pretend I said this:

Zetsu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:42 am
MW wrote:Instead, we've got a claimed VT under heavy suspicion dictating to town what they should do if he gets NKed and like... that is never going to happen (or at least, scum isn't gonna do it). Why on earth would scum shoot someone loudly drawing focus with no worthwhile role to remove?
Can you point me at where he does this, perchance? I'm definitely seeing attempts to shape the narrative, but not in this particular way. Also, dictating to town what they should do if he gets NK'd feels like a pretty neutral move at worst? Maybe even town-ish? I do that all the time as town: if I get NK'd, this is who you should be suspicious of (and then NK analysis turns into a big WIFOM clusterfuck anyways, but eh).

Jace wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:22 pmIf Dodd turns out to be scum, that's gonna set off some scum-alarms in me toward Slam. If I get sniped during the night phase, I would find that very incriminating towards him and possibly a few others so if that happens, please don't waste the chance it'll provide you guys to scumread some of the people here.

^This is what I was referring to--there's some vagueness but a specific contingent drive against Jack that doesn't sit great with me for reasons explained above.

Zetsu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:49 am @MW

If I'm following Paige correctly, I think the policy lynch is one because it feels like we're forcing the mod's hand, and that feels...wrong? Nobody's going to be placing into Dodd's slot with such a train on his head, so it feels kinda like we've gamed the system by forcing the modkill of cactus's slot, while also getting a second lynch. Effectively, it's like we get a double lynch on day 1 since cactus is mainly not going to be replaced because he'd be lynched anyways. Feels a little rough on Dea to have to balance around that, if that makes sense. Like, we'd be gunning for Dodd if he were still in the game, so it feels kinda shady to gun for another lynch instead, and then let Dodd get modkilled in a pseudo-second-lynch.

I don't 100% agree with this...

but where I'm sitting is this: Jace is being cooperative in replying (mostly--I want my gut hunch reads dangit!) and giving us stuff to work from and I certainly don't object to the empty slot elimination. I'm willing to take his playing ball as constructive and give a little time to see what happens, but do want to caution that we're gonna see a more coordinated scum team next phase and while Jace has by virtue of his claim proven eminently expendable even if he is telling the truth, the risk about that position is letting someone walk it down until the numbers are such that they're actually not expendable simply by virtue of being a warm "town" body and then suddenly they have a perfect reason never to get shot and force town to roll the dice every time because calling their bluff could mean ending the game. So let's not let that happen if the evidence of dubious allegiance mounts.

Also obligatory warning: in ~five minutes I turn back into a pumpkin until after work tomorrow (about when I started going on a tear tonight) so like for practicality reasons I also can't advocate super hard for going on a big chase when I know I'm not gonna be around to contribute in material fashion for a large chunk of it leading up to the deadline. I am very set on not having this splat into going to bed without dinner, to bring the metaphor back, but if we are going that way it'd be super lovely if we made the most of the time left in the phase by having everyone who can/cares to dump whatever reads they have (however slight)--I'll do the same when I get back after work so like please nobody randomly hammer for no reason before then or I'll cut you, yes?

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:13 am**

Why are FOSes a bad thing, necessarily? Not that I really use them myself, but I find them useful as a way of like, spotting key moments if I'm way behind and need to skim or something.

Also yes I get zetsu's point re: feeling like we're gaming the system a bit, but not 100% sure I agree. I feel we'd be gaming it more if, like, we treated it as a free extra lynch owing to the NK. Like, I think it's good to treat it as an active slot for now.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:12 am**

Jace wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:56 pm
Slam wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:44 pm Right but if Dodd was scum and I was scum then I have less reason to be chill with whoever replaces Dodd being killed because they'd still be scum and hence my comrade. I'm assuming Dea isn't going to be shuffling around roles in light of Dodd being replaced.
That's fair, but to also be fair whoever would've replaced Dodd would have been dealt a bad hand to start, so if hypothetically you were scum, I don't see how distancing yourself from the replacement wouldn't still be the only logical way to go to keep suspicion off of you.

Suspicion wasn't on me in the first place.

As an alternative to a Dodd lynch, who else would people like to see flipped? I'm still not against a Jace vote and that's still because he's been at the centre of conversation this phase with some people already side-eyeing, but no-one else is sititng on my radar right this second outside of that, and a Dodd lynch would put some context into Jace anyway.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:55 am**

I think boogie looks pretty scummy if dodd flips scum, since he pushed against that train initially and then hopped on board when it looked inevitable. Looks slightly townie if the other way around, but not by much. I wouldn't lynch him as of yet since he's good for a scumhunt when he's town, and since he hasn't actually talked much yet. I'd like to give him time to implicate himself and his scumbuddies if he's scum

Irina continues to set off all my scum alarms, though just as with Ricky I'm second-guessing the hell out of that read. Speaking of Ricky, about 50% of his content pertains to Irina. Which is just? ??? I don't know what to make of that if Irina flips town, and I don't know what to make of it if Irina flips scum. Someone else please dissect this for me, I am t i r e d.

@MW I know you're pumpkin, but who are you voting for when you turn human again, assuming we don't need your vote on the cactus train?

Jace is probably the most informative lynch if y'all can argue me off of a policy lynch, but I'm not sure on voting him out today in that case given how much I feel like a Cactus flip would inform my view of Jace. A Cactus flip provides info on just about everybody, but that's especially true of Jace I feel. Also on the table (heh) for me are the assorted lurkers. Of those, I'm tending towards Irina, on the basis that we're never gonna get a proper read on her without a cop result, and I'd really kinda prefer for the investigations to go towards loud, influential voices (and if cop doesn't investigate her, then we'll just be wondering to the end of time whether we should lynch her or not, and then suddenly it's LyLo).

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:32 pm**

I think a Dodd lynch would get us for info, but a Jace lynch would probably be just as fine as well. If Dodd's spot flips scum I would dare say Jace gets cleared considering how hard line both of them were on lynchs, and even so, call me swayed by Jace but I don't think even if Dodd is town it would impliacate him, I don't know

Also, to Zetsu: I'm apparentely so scummy that even the gm though I was scum, so yeah, that explains Ricky. Needless to say, if I flip scum, he's probably town. I get a townread from him-ish in general since I feel like keeping me around would probably benefit scum, no joke, since I seem to ooze human scum blood for reasons even though I'm town, obviously

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:04 pm**

Sure are a lot of people who want attention literally anywhere but Cactus's spot huh

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:02 pm**

Zetsu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:42 am
Jace wrote:Also I'm not trying to shape the narrative, I'm just really really wanting to see if Dodd is town or not bc I've never been right before in mafia and led the conversation toward a successful vote, and that excites me bc I wanna be right
Hackles raised over this as it feels inaccurate. You feel more fixated on the possibility of your being wrong than anything else.

Well yeah that does worry me obviously because as I made clear before anyone else started saying so (IF I RECALL CORRECTLY OK PAIGE), if Dodd flips town, that means i was wrong and it's going to guarantee I get lynched. So being wrong is a perfectly valid fear to have in this situation.

MurderWeasel wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:58 am
Jace wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:22 pmIf Dodd turns out to be scum, that's gonna set off some scum-alarms in me toward Slam. If I get sniped during the night phase, I would find that very incriminating towards him and possibly a few others so if that happens, please don't waste the chance it'll provide you guys to scumread some of the people here.
^This is what I was referring to--there's some vagueness but a specific contingent drive against Jack that doesn't sit great with me for reasons explained above.

Understandable, but like I said before, it never occurred to me that VT were expendable, and would never get night-killed. My logic, as I stated before, is that if I make my intention clear to investigate Slam and Yugi next day phase and am right or leaning in the right direction, I'd be targeted so I can't do so (though maybe not now that I've made that abundantly clear). I'm just trying to make all my feelings and suspicions clear because as I said before, I KNOW i'm going to get lynched eventually, and no matter what suspicions you guys have, I am town, so I'd rather occupy myself with getting as much info to give you guys to work with as possible before then, than furiously defending myself.

MurderWeasel wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:58 am
but where I'm sitting is this: Jace is being cooperative in replying (mostly--I want my gut hunch reads dangit!)

I know I keep rain checking this lol but I will be at work all day today and should have plenty of time to spend some time on this rather than do it hastily, but I leave for work in 15 minutes so it will have to wait until I have more time. I will post about this today tho, promise.

Slam wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:12 am
Suspicion wasn't on me in the first place.

Suspicion isn't on anybody until it is, and I honestly don't understand what point you're trying to make. I'm not deflecting suspicion from myself but being inundated with suspicion isn't gonna stop me from getting as much info as I can to lay out before I get killed.

Zetsu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:55 am Jace is probably the most informative lynch if y'all can argue me off of a policy lynch, but I'm not sure on voting him out today in that case given how much I feel like a Cactus flip would inform my view of Jace.

Can someone actually fr explain this to me because I don't see what legit info we get from killing me if I flipped scum (which I wouldn't). Maybe I just don't pay close enough attention to that but the only people it seems to give any real info about is me, and MAYBE Paige? Everyone else that followed my logic did it for reasons clearly explained, and I don't see how turning either way would reflect on the rest of you at all.

Anyway like Isaid I'll post those hunches MW keeps asking for sometime today, next time I get a chance to type unbothered.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:54 pm**

Jace wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:02 pm Suspicion isn't on anybody until it is, and I honestly don't understand what point you're trying to make. I'm not deflecting suspicion from myself but being inundated with suspicion isn't gonna stop me from getting as much info as I can to lay out before I get killed.

Your point was, and I quote:

so if hypothetically you were scum, I don't see how distancing yourself from the replacement wouldn't still be the only logical way to go to keep suspicion off of you.

This makes no sense when I have no reason to worry about keeping suspicion that wasn't on me in the first place off of me. Rather than distancing myself the correct strategy would've been to just interact with Dodd the same way anyone else would.

You say I'm suspicious like Yugi, but the only reason for that seems to be because I was suggesting we lynch you.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:17 pm**

You seem to be overreacting to what isn't anything more than a suspicion that is too little to even justify an FOS. I'm just trying to let everyone know where my heads at. The fierce defense against my logic is why it's escalating. I said before I want to look into this stuff later, but your attitude is alot more consistent with a misinformed lynch vote than a hunch that could be wrong.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:20 pm**

Jace wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:17 pmI said before I want to look into this stuff later, but your attitude is alot more consistent with a misinformed lynch vote than a hunch that could be wrong.

That is to say, nobody else is getting this offended or defensive (except me obviously) over being suspected. I was under the impression it's reasonable to suspect everyone, which I do. You're just one of the only people I have any form of reason for said suspicion. It's alot more normal than your reaction suggests and that isn't making me more suspicious - it really isn't, but it is striking me as a little too defensive for me to not point out.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:26 pm**

You seem to be implying a tone that I'm not using. I'm pointing out the holes in your reasoning.

Posted: **Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:30 pm**

Timekeeping stuff: we have 1 day, 4 minutes, and 5 seconds left.

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