Survival Of The Fittest

I wouldn't quit your day job, Nostradamus.

I'm still at work and didn't have time to do anything in-depth before I left for work this morning (and checking in to chat is something I can do in between doing stuff whereas providing my reads is not). I'm working from home tomorrow though so I'll try to get up my analysis tonight.

Ruggahissy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:12 am I'm still at work and didn't have time to do anything in-depth before I left for work this morning (and checking in to chat is something I can do in between doing stuff whereas providing my reads is not). I'm working from home tomorrow though so I'll try to get up my analysis tonight.

oh yeah, no worries on that front, i wasnt trying to do a dumb "HMMMM.... YOU SAID READS.... BUT NO READS..................NO ONE HAS EVER BEEN BUSY IN THEIR LIFE" thing

im just conscious about the ticking clock

Oh yeah, but I feel like I've been like " READs SOON™ " a few times and didn't want it to seem like I was trying to push READS SOON™ into infinity until the timer ran out. Tonight I promise, and I'll be home all day tomorrow so expect me to post a lot.

literally writing the blizz read post as we speak but i also want to point out the strongest evidence i have in rugga's favor which is that she introduced me to some of the best music ever written

ok blizz read and then i actually shut up until theres more information! i'll state before i get into the read proper that i read blizz early on as feeling more like new town than anything else mostly based on her bringing up complex but unlikely strategic ideas and things like breadcrumbs. kermit stated before he died that he was reading blizz as town though that was based off of four posts, only two of which were really substantial, so eh. and obvs jimmy cleared her, so she's basically definitely town. even so for completion's sake Here's A Read:

blizz: only has 15 posts, which is already a red flag, though some of those posts are very effortful and substantial (for the record only toben and skraal have fewer posts). her four posts on day one were her confirming she got her PM, saying she thought kermit seemed like he was trying to be lynched, doubled down on the possibility of kermit being a jester, and then said she was being quiet because she didn't have much to contribute flavor-wise. which, fair, that's why i didn't talk much day one either lmao. i don't think blizz was super serious about kermit being a jester and was just putting all possibilities on the table, and this also struck me as a new town move bc there are very few circumstances where you might actually expect a jester in a mafia game and like a 9-man basic setup like this one is not one of them

enter day 2. blizz talks about kermit's untimely death enough that it feels a little like gloating tho honestly thats another thing new town does pretty often. then she does some reads. she first agrees with others who had said that kermit wasn't a particularly low-profile pick for a nightkill, then kind of equivocates on whether rugga would have killed kermit, neither of which is new ideas really. onto boogie, this is where she mentions breadcrumbs which is a very new town thing to bring up, and says boogie has been kind of sketchy and votes for him. this comes directly after boogie voted for her to get her to talk and also after he had already posted his reads and Also brings boogie to one vote from lynching, all of which are things that make me uncomfortable about that vote at that moment. i also am not really parsing why she found boogie suspect at this point. she also mentions skraal and being surprised he didn't get heat for basically missing day one, though immediately after this post he immediately does get heat from boogie taking his vote off blizz and onto him. she doesn't unvote until several others already have (though thats probably more her not being around than maliciousness) and says she was suspicious of boogie because of the delay on his reads post, something i've been making the biggest : | face at toward everyone who jumped on that wagon since it happened, though she does say that now that she's had to delay reads herself she better understands. she does still say boogie is her biggest suspicion in her next post but still switches her vote onto the skraal bandwagon. or actually i think she's saying skraal is more suspicious than boogie now because he was scapegoating boogie? it's not super clear. she also notes that boogie is pushing for activity tho she doesn't actually judge that as a pro- or anti- town move, she just notes it.

ITS AMAZING HOW LONG I CAN MAKE THIS WITH THIS FEW POSTS ISN'T IT? day 3, blizz flavor claims. she says "if boogie and rugga are telling the truth the mafia is fen and ricky" which is the kind of jump that always makes me kind of uncomfortable. most of her posts here on out are big long reads like this one and if i dissect those i will break the fucking character limit on this post so i'll try to summarize. she reads rugga first. her read is that "she's either scum doing what it takes to avoid the lynch, even throwing other scum under the bus or a slightly erratic townie" which honestly comes out to "either she's scum or she's town", though she does say she thinks town is more likely. her read on ricky is much shorter and comes down to a null read which is basically how i felt about him up until he claimed.

day 4, blizz says she missed the lynch bc of canadian thanksgiving which is fair enough. her only post this phase has been a big long read on boogie that again i won't dissect right now because it would be So much but i might tomorrow or something because i hate myself. she's leaning town on him. i assume she's going to read me next since i'm the only one she hasn't read yet. also uh this face : | again at the fact she hasn't posted anything since that post when we're solidly past thanksgiving now tho i just checked and she hasn't been online since monday so i guess it is still irl stuff and not stalling. unless she's Really dedicated to stalling and hasn't logged onto the site just to be SUPER SNEAKY. but like probably not that

final thoughts: hhhhhhhhh. if jimmy hadn't cleared blizz she would be who my suspicions were on right now for sure but as it is the probability is still just so low that im just making this face : | : | : | over and over into infinity

oh i lied one more thing before i stop talking: voting history wheeeee

day 1:
blizzard- n/a
boogie- n/a
fen- skraal (vote 3/3)
rugga- ricky (vote 1/1)

day 2:
blizzard- skraal (vote 5/5)
boogie- skraal (vote 1/5)
fen- skraal (vote 4/5)
rugga- skraal (vote 2/5)

day 3:
blizzard- n/a
boogie- ricky (vote 2/4)
fen- ricky (vote 3/4)
rugga- ricky (vote 1/4)

And when I said tonight I meant tomorrow morning but I will be home all day the whole day so I will ;~; I

We’ll have a whole 24 hours still to decide

Yo I'm here. Strap in fuckers, this is gonna be 90% reads and 10% wine throws

I guess we'll start with Boogie.

BOOGIE



Quiet first day, short spazz the second due to RL stressors. Gives good reads and then gets annoyed at getting beat up a bit despite them. I think I'm better at kind of expressing the feeling I get from the way people write things so instead of a point by point I'll do that unless something sticks out.

He seems exasperated, but earnest on day 2, particularly in his flavor claim and his post asking what more people want of him. There's some lamentation over Kermit but I'm not gonna read into it because I honestly think the idea of looking for "gloats" is stupid because anything people say following a death can be read as that so there's no good thing to do but say nothing and that sucks. Reads Fen and I as town on day three with a null on Ricky and a green given to Bliz just on the strength of Jimmy's investigate, but at that point it's a fine assumption to make. Dislikes Ricky's claim a lot, which also makes sense given the makeup of town.

Day 4 gives me points for my suspicions on Ricky, but doesn't like my pushing on the godfather theory. I disagree, but that's ok and I know why the idea makes him and others nervous. He gets more suspect of me, but now due to thinking it's possible I bussed Ricky to gain points for myself. I obviously object to that as me, but taking myself out of my shoes, I don't think that's mafia behavior. The reason I think this is because scum would try to turn things on me as an agenda and Boogie's seem reactionary to what I say. It's not coming from him, it's a response, which is a town quality.

Fen, Boogie and I discuss and extension and are granted one. Then he votes for me based on a dream. To be honest, I bristle, but I step away for a bit to calm down and recognize it's a tactic to get me to speak and a response to anxiety as the timer runs down. We're also not in danger because one vote won't allow for a hammer. I don't love it, because for a less calm/ even keeled person it might result in lashing out even if they were town.

I believe Boogie to be town. Besides the circumstantial flavor evidence I outlined that lays that out (I don't believe Brackie would give up the chance to showcase truly vile people just to make things more difficult, he loves vile people too much) Boogie isn't playing like mafia. In the past when I've seen him as mafia he lies low and tries to get to the end that way, though granted it was a much larger game so it was easier to do that. But besides that, he's not driving the car right now, he's a passenger. His posts are reactionary where if he was mafia I believe he'd be trying to push specific ideas rather than just exploring whatever turns up.

FENRIS



Fen has the most posts after me so well done, please report to the Real Housewives Institute in Connecticut to claim your sugar daddy and botox. Despite this dubious honor, Fen is quite the first day but that's because they aren't in to the flavor shenans and that's acceptable.

They aren't too jazzed on Toben's town read of me, but it comes off as not wanting to put me int he 100% category based on his circumstantial evidence of my love of flavor. At the top of day 2 reads Jimmy as being suspicious which is something to note given we know he's town now. Lightscum read on Boogie too. Null on Ricky.

On day 3 doesn't like my blurting out that they and Ricky would be the mafia based on Jimmy the cop's findings. To be fair, IRL I will just say things when trying to solve stuff without thinking things through enough and I treat mafia as just saying whatever comes to mind first (see all my typos). Some speculation about the build of mafia in response to Ricky saying it's weird Fenris says mafia wouldn't have power roles. Uhhhhhhh, not sure what to say about this interaction. I think it would be weird for two mafia members to go against each other like this when there is no obvious goal besides taking up time.

Interlude for a dance party. Fenris says "I love myself" which gives me shades of really reinforcing to us they're Erika when it might be a safe claim. It's just as likely it's Fen having fun with the dance party though.

More discussion and then Fen and I fall ill around the same time last week which Fen claims in chat that I infected them due to me licking all over the mafia, which I can neither confirm nor deny. More reads coming into today which are well-thought out and there is a general sense of paranoia and afraid of being hoodwinked left and right which rings true the farther and farther we go. It's becoming more precarious and Fen is nervously eyeing every person. This is also not super characteristic of someone who is mafia. Fen is unwilling to totally rule out anyone and if they were mafia they'd really want to zero in on someone by now, though it could also be a run down the clock tactic.

They do also take hold of the conversation more than Boogie does to posit certain ideas about certain people (the admittedly bad read on Jimmy as scum early on) but it's not like the reads are based on faulty logic.

I gotta do some work and eat but then the conclusion with Bliz read.

for the record I am Even Sicker Than Before so I dont think i can actually blame it on rugga anymore unless ur germs increase in strength over time

Well shit, there's one more read to go for me isn't there? Shitshitshitshit, I almost forgot. Yeah Fenris. For completion since I trust absolutely nothing after Umeniko traumatized me. Honestly these are probably more recap posts than anything, aren't they? Pretty much all this one is useful for right now. Though Rugga has made bighuge post on Fen already. Do I even do the read anymore? I have no clue actually.

Basic thoughts is I think when it comes right down to it, Fen and Rugga are the two lynch choices. Rugga, as has been stated before, might be a very crafty flavour player, and Fen could also be another one of the more crafty players. Of course, we could all be ignoring the masterful scheme DM is laying out under our noses, but I'm not terribly suspicious of Boogie at this point. Basic read on Fen is mildly suspicious, but about equal to Rugga- most of the suspicious stuff has other explanations for it, which really, really isn't helpful at this stage, and it's probably best to lynch someone today and have a 1/4-1/3 chance of ending the game with a town win.

Alright I did some work and ate a bag of baked, low-cal Flaming Hot Cheetos which is not technically a meal, but it's close enough for now.

I am completely recovered from my illness by this point in time, I don't know if my germs increase over time but my immune system took this one like a champ.

BLIZZARD

I mean, thank Jesus I saved her last because only 15 posts but we'll get to that means eventually



Pretty much nothing to say about the day 1 posts here. Not much to work with. Suggests that Kermit is behaving in a jestery way which is like shrug.jpg and also welcome to Kermit. First meaty post comes day 2. Says that me being upset over Kermit's death seems like true sads but I could also still be mafia but also maybe not.

Blizzard wrote:Honestly, DM's posts seem pretty sketchy right now. Reads, imo, aren't the life-or-death kinda reveals that say, a roleclaim is. Yes, people can accuse you of scumbuddying or whatchamacallit, but at least they shouldn't accuse you of lying. Okay, I'm pretty sure somebody in the history of mafia has lied about their reads. Which honestly makes DM's er, reluctance? More baffling to me. VOTE: Dmboogie, at least for now.

This whole section is......strange. They say some mafia terms that I don't know what they mean because I'm not super into mafia and they vote DM but I don't really know why outside of him being slow to respond which isn't great. Everyone accuses everyone of lying? Sure people lie about roles but I don't understand how that relates to Boogie.

She unvotes when Boogie says he was busy, so that's good. She votes for Skraal, but still puts in some suspicion of Boogie in the vote. Even after posting the vote for Skraal, she still pushes on about Boogie parroting Ricky.

Blizzard wrote:nother observation is how Boogie is prodding the game along by tagging-kinda Ricky and I when we haven't voted. Don't know if that will amount to anything, but I'll remember that.

This comes in a separate vote after voting for Skraal. If Ricky flips in the future, this is foundation for suspicions on Boogie.

Day 3 and we get a regret post about Skraal. I know I said looking at these posts is dumb and I still feel that way but this one gives me a weird feeling. I know that my guts are not proper evidence though. Flavor claim as Sheree and I forgot to mention this before now because I kept marking it as "Save for later" but now is a good time to mention that Sheree is a notorious sneak. She once put on a fashion show with no fashions and defended the decision by saying she never promised there would be clothes, just that it would be a "viewing."

She says that if Boogie and I are telling the truth about our claims that Fen and Ricky are the mafia which rankles Fen, but since I did the same thing here I can't really count this. Also claims null reads on everyone who isn't Jimmy which.....eh. All of us?

Bliz then says they'll give reads on everyone, but then only gives reads on Ricky and I. She says I get one for having the most posts but it still strikes me as odd to only do the two of us. She covers my mourning Kermit again and says my joke vote for Ricky at the start could be because we're both mafia and I'm trying to distance myself. The reason I voted is because of his outrageous serial killer claim. She also says that my suggestion that the game has a cop and town could be mafia related because maybe they get the layout of the game before hand. This is patently ridiculous, BUT could be a new person misstep. She also says that it could be that I'm in league with Ricky and that my sharing of the music "could be seen as scummy" but may also not be. This is also kind of ridiculous that fun could be a scum tell and it was semi-relevant because it was related to Fen's claim, I didn't throw the dance party out of no where.

Also we see here that Blizz herself is pushing a possible Godfather setup.

Blizzard wrote:Though if the godfather had their usual power of choosing the nightkill for the mafia, it would make sense for scum!Rugga to mourn Kermit even in a two-person mafia.

Her conclusion is that I'm "either scum doing what it takes to avoid the lynch, even throwing other scum under the bus or a slightly erratic townie," laying the groundwork that either way, I'm not trustworthy.

She then gives a short null read on Ricky.

In her last post she reads Boogie. Yet again she brings up that he was suspicious for his day 2 quietness which I thought we'd dealt with adequately. She also says it's suspicious that I cast suspicions on less flavor-loving people due to Kermit's death. Brings up his his day 2 weird jokes and then posits that maybe he bussed Ricky.

Also this

Blizzard wrote:My general read is that she's either scum doing what it takes to avoid the lynch, even throwing other scum under the bus or a slightly erratic townie.

Her read of Boogie essentially ends in "leaning town but could be mafia I guess," which has been most of her reads. This is all either scum or someone flailing around, but I don't get the impression of someone just trying to scramble for things. This is someone who has spent the whole game going "I think it's Boogie/Rugga......but maybe not....." There is gentle nudging at the two of us in particular, but with a soft enough touch for her to back off and avoid the appearance of aggression while still planting the seed all the way down the line that we could be scum.

I find Blizz to be the most likely scum, then Fen, then Boogie.

so like blizz's last post doesn't make me any less suspect of her being she basically said "idk fen is probably town unless they're mafia i guess" which is basically the same thing they said about rugga. it's not a read so much of an admission that she'll vote for whoever the rest of us start voting for.

honestly the only thing keeping me from voting for blizz at this point is jimmy. setting that aside my suspicion level atm is blizz > rugga > boogie for reasons i've already gotten into.

hhhhhhhhhhhhh

i enjoy that people generally agree that im town but this isn't making my decision much easier. everyone's posted reads now, though, so it's time to commit.

vote's staying on rugga due to a variety of factors (for the record i did not actually vote for you because of my dream) but mostly the continued blizzard pushing - especially given that Fen has continuously expressed their doubt at the existence of a godfather at all; and only gave reads on her for the sake of completeness. if fen was scum they'd have a very real chance of riding the blizzard train to victory now that rugga's left the station with it; it wouldn't be an unbelievable departure from their previous stance, especially since Everyone has agreed that blizzard is the most sketch out of all of us, just based on her play

@blizzard: unless we execute you, we're gonna need your vote to finish this.