Survival Of The Fittest

Hypothesis: we either have multiple scum killing factions (possibly including an SK) or else a JOAT went way off-base.

Zetsu was not onboard with popping Blast, so presumably didn't do so, and similarly couldn't have targeted herself under any normal circumstances I'm aware of. After the Poly train, I think a Town-aligned role gunning for Zetsu is unlikely.

Outside chance to some one-shot scum ability to deter turtling, just so that's on the table as a possible option. It's not super common, but has been seen a time or two.

More detailed thoughts in a bit.

Looking askance at those who either didn't join the poly train or joined it very late.

General Goose wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:33 pm Looking askance at those who either didn't join the poly train or joined it very late.

in my defense i wasn't certain about the lynch until his hella sus claim; that's why i didnt jump on until then

Blast's flip makes me less suspicious of Blizzard but i need to re-read and not be super sick to my stomach before i'm certain there. The end of the poly train is tainted by the roleclaim which i think was v v sus, I'm interested in the people who weren't on it at all

Quick thoughts glancing at votes: Poly was pushing Prim with no support other than Blast which makes me feel good about Prim. There's no scum day chat and it happened super late so it doesn't read as scum on scum distraction to me.

Neither Blizz nor Riki joined the train and Riki tunneled on Blast super hard from the beginning. Could be scum trying to seize the narrative of a slow moving game for an easy lynch. It's worth keeping in mind Poly could have lied about his investigation and result, town gains a lot double checking MS but maf doesn't this early in the game, it's possible maf has different information than we think all of last day

We're starting to have enough information where we can optimize our blind fires and that's good but let's not pop off tunneling anybody with galaxy brain gambits yet this is still a v silly game in phases largely dictated by luck. If you're out for blood certain with anything short of the Kyubey on your shoulder whispering damning investigation results you're probably wrong so keep it 300 folx

Looking askance at those who either didn't join the poly train or joined it very late.

I was only sold on Poly after he claimed. If you look at what I said with my vote, the way he revealed seemed off to me. I felt that it was essentially a very last minute role claim, that "cop" seemed to be a generic enough safe claim that people would accept without question, and the fact that he seemed so certain that MS was a VT (despite the role only narrowing it down + MS claiming to be such; it supports it but doesn't outright confirm it) made me kinda "???". It turned out to be a good call.

I wasn't on much when Poly claimed. When I saw the claim, he'd already been lynched.

You think we're playing by the rule that if a vig hits a town, they die?

The vig, I mean.

Important mod note: Mimi is formally dropping out of the game due to IRL commitments. For the sake of expediency and due to a lack of immediate interest elsewhere, I will be transferring her role over to Zetsu, who will re-enter the game. Her previous role, Tart, is still dead and removed from the game; Zetsu has not been linked to dead chat and does not have any information that would give her an unfair advantage in rejoining.

Carry on. ／人◕ ‿‿ ◕人＼

Edited by way of edit because I can do that: Zetsu is also not permitted to share any information about her actions as Tart, so please don't bother asking questions.

Maybe, but that would mean some interesting things. Zetsu was a non-consecutive vigilante, which means she can't shoot two nights in a row. The first thing that reveals is that there's another killing role in this game: If Zetsu shot night one, she couldn't have shot last night, ergo either boogie is lying about being BP or there were two killers other than her Night One. If she shot night one, she couldn't of shot tonight, ergo there are two killers other than her.

If we are playing by vig dies if they hit town rules and Zetsu shot Blast last night that means there are two killing roles unaccounted for last night. Some combination of blocks, bulletproofs, or held actions would have to account for them.

i don't think zetsu shot night one because she wasn't in the game yet and the original player in her slot dropped, so Rugga probably didn't take that night action. Which leads me to believe that Zetsu shot last night. i'm not super sure where to go past that but we have at least two other killers out there. I don't think it's a JOAT like MW suggests because we still had two kill attempts night on. I think we're looking at either two maf factions or one maf and one SK.

EBWOP: Night One, not Night On

/me sighs

why do i keep on inflicting this game on myself

BlizzardeyeWonder wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:02 amYou think we're playing by the rule that if a vig hits a town, they die?

I strongly doubt it, as the vig role listed already has a caveat in its name (non-consecutive). Without going too deep into the theory, my impression here is that a lot of power roles in this setup have limited or balancing factors (see: Jailer instead of more traditional Doctor or Roleblocker--a Jailer prevents Town from protection-locking an investigative role, and also from locking down someone while also killing them).

In actual news, expect me to be relatively quiet this day phase, irl is quite busy. most of this is stuff that i'd already had typed up last night.

mw for town. hopped on the poly train before it was gaining steam. would be a ridiculously aggressive and unnecessary bus, given that the only other person on the train when he hopped on would've been...me.

(does this count as talking about my actions god i hope it doesnt dont burn me at the stake please)

boogie for townnull. i like that he was reluctant to hop on the poly lynch, actually; if being reluctant to hop on a mislynch but then hopping on anyways is something of a scumtell (hi poly! how's it going in the afterlife? *blows rasberry*), then being reluctant to hop on a good lynch but then hopping on anyways reads pretty townie to me. boogie's playstyle looks like his town game, but i dont see that as being all that meaningful, given that his town game did a complete 180 a couple games ago; his scum game might've done the same.

goose for townnull. again, hopped on the poly train well before it looked like it was gonna be the lynch of the day.

kami for townnull. could be faked, but being surprised that poly is so certain that MeS is town looks good because it shows that kami isnt making the same assumptions that he is. that realization would be kinda difficult to make were she poly's scumbuddy because it requires her to consciously "un-know" something that she does know. and if kami's canny enough scum to catch that kinda thing, then it's possible that she didn't have that insight until after the day phase had already started, but you'd expect her to have passed it on to her scumteam, otherwise. on the other hand, if poly knew that MeS was scum and was deliberately making that "assumption" in the hope that town wouldn't catch it, it'd be weird for kami to call it out and ruin the plan of getting town to think that MeS was confirmed townie were kami scum.

i'm inclined to think that this was not a gambit to get MeS townread, though, and the reason poly sounded overly certain was because he was in fact overly certain. occam's razor and all that. so i'm willing to take MeS as probably not mafia, though he could still be the SK

cactus gets some scumpoints for posturing on the lynch

prim is null. i tend to townread waffling when it comes to prim, but that last post was aggressive in a way that felt kinda off to me that i associate more with scum prim. poly's vote on prim is eh to me; with four votes on him at that time, poly couldve been trying to derail the train on him, or he couldve been proceeding with the assumption that he was gonna die and voting with the intent of sowing confusion.

poly's claim of having investigated MeS isn't necessarily true. could be that he investigated someone else, but claimed to have investigated MeS so as to avoid giving information to town that town don't already have. i wouldnt place bets either way--again, poly's claim came early enough that he couldve been trying to prevent himself from getting lynched, in which case he might just be telling the truth, but also late enough that he couldve just been trying to limit the amount of damage that will be caused by his lynching (in which case it's more likely that he's lying)