Survival Of The Fittest

Weird thing I remembered from long ago reading the thread back this morning - boogie claiming he lost an extra life - did we ever establish what that was all about?

I just want to clarify that while he is in his time of beef

i was 1x bulletproof and got shot by some faction in the night, that’s really all there was to it

I more just wanted to comment regarding your time of beef, to be real

i am not accepting any questions from the press at this time

So here's who we got, and I added some quick thoughts about each of them (sidenote: I forgot how hilarious we all were on Day 2, there are like eighteen competing theories and people throwing suspicion and jumping trains almost at random, I love it).

Primrosette: after a quick scan of Prim's ISO, I am actually pretty hard against a Prim lynch. They haven't been the best town in the world, but their early, entirely earned push on Poly gives them some serious towncred for me, and they've echoed a lot of my own thinking

MethodicalSlacker: for some reason I had a vague gut-level feeling that MS was some kinda scum, but now that I'm looking them over I...really like what I see? They're calling out bad play, they're chasing down threads, they voice early suspicions of Deamon and EP that they follow through on, they're open to having their mind changed. I really like what I'm seeing.

dmboogie: claimed power role, has been on two different buses that flipped scum (joined Deamon train pretty early, but the poly train's a little interesting: I'll get into it below)

General Goose: confirmed innocent, will lynch on principle later (this is a joke)

Cactus: Iiiiiiiinteresting. Cactus is currently my substitue Murder, in that, while I agree with a lot of what they say, they're bothering me on a gut level? I think with Murder it was because they were probably operating off information they'd gained as the gunsmith but couldn't share that fact. I don't know for sure if that's the case with Cactus, too.

KamiKaze: At this moment, I am fairly confident in Kami's Town-affiliation. I love their analysis and while they push Deamon hard once they feel like they've got a case, they take it slow and don't jump on trains for no reason. It's cautious, patient, and deliberate. It doesn't rule out an SK, but it's good play as long as I think there's still scum left on the field, and they share a lot of my analysis of blast's claim.

Grim Wolf: the towniest town that every towned BURN THE CHILD

Riki: I haven't really given Riki in-depth analysis since our early alliance over blast, but I really love their most recent post. It takes Zetsu's flip and does some really good analysis with how it more-or-less exonerates Prim from being scum associated with the known scum faction, and their analysis through the preceding days also feels really good to me: they jumped on the prim train for the same reasons I did but better, and they kept thinking things through based on each new reveal.






After some thought, I feel like I've got no choice but to VOTE: DMBOOGIE

Let me explain a little. Boogie's early soft-claim gave them an abundance of town-cred, and my personal thought was that they were some kind of JOAT, hence why I did not want them to roleclaim at the time. However, over multiple night phases, no one has taken the shot at boogie. Maybe it was the risk of an unknown quantity, but with a pretty consistent two nightkills, surely someone would have thought "hang on, he's not bulletproof anymore." The only reasons not to take a shot at a known power-role are 1) doing so would risk unnecessary exposure (right now I don't see how anyone would be implicated by boogie's death) 2) boogie's been a useful voice to scum (analysis says that they're not really providing much in the way of cover to the flips we've had so far), 3) boogie poses unknown risks (seriously doubt that anyone thinks that boogie is both a vig/pgo/bomb/whatever, and as the nights wear on the chances of them having secret powers left in reserve decrease) or 4) boogie has scum affiliation, most likely being the Godfather

I'm willing to admit that there are some holes in my theory here. It hinges on the fact that boogie's bulletproof nature would also allow them to be notified of an attempt to take the shot at them, and as I'm assuming at this moment that boogie is the Mafia Godfather with full nightkill immunity, I don't know if that's a standard facet of a bulletproof character. In fact, I very nearly decided not to place this vote due to doubts like these, combined with how early they jumped on the Deamon train on Day 3.

But after reading Day 2, I felt like I had a clearer picture. Both Polybius and boogie are pushing a prim vote almost until the last moment, and boogie only jumps ship to the poly train when it's really picking up steam (around L-2). Poly also accuses boogie of being suspicious without really following through on it, and boogie is also quick to note that he expects a fairly high number of Vanilla Townies (which it appears are going to make up the bulk of the mafia safeclaims). I added after boogie's soft-claim that I was fairly confident in boogie, albeit with some reservations, as it could be an elaborate gambit. Looking over their play over several days, I'm feeling more confident in that theory. By coming forward, boogie hoped to be a voice beyond suspicion: my guess is that, upon realizing that their might be visible cooperation between themselves and Poly, boogie jumped on the Deamon train early to make sure they maintained their towncred.

I said I'd put a vote on someone tonight, because I don't want us getting picked off over the nights to come. Right now, based on the evidence I have, I think boogie's the best bang for our buck.

Grim Wolf wrote: ↑Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:57 am But after reading Day 2, I felt like I had a clearer picture. Both Polybius and boogie are pushing a prim vote almost until the last moment, and boogie only jumps ship to the poly train when it's really picking up steam (around L-2).

we already talked about this a couple day phases ago; i voted poly when he claimed, and i'm certainly not the only one who did that? i hopped on the train late in the lynch, because he did the most suspicious thing late in the lynch, and a couple other people beat me to the voting gun before i could hop on

boogie is also quick to note that he expects a fairly high number of Vanilla Townies (which it appears are going to make up the bulk of the mafia safeclaims).

how is this scummy at all man, most mafia games have a pretty high number of vanilla people. as is, we have two dead in the graveyard right now, MeS if we trust his claim, and probably at least one more among the people who are still alive

On some level, it's just math, boogie. There are currently 8 players left, and I know for certain that 25% (me and Goose) are Town. So one of my votes is gotta fall on the other 6.

My analysis of Prim immediately makes me get off that train (down to 5), and Riki's analysis makes me really leery of the prim train period (Zetsu's flip makes everything more suspect), so Riki's off my lynch list, too (down to 4). As I'm going through ISOs and the thread days themselves I find that I like most people's logic, their pushes, and their analysis (including some of yours). But that claimed bulletproof factor, with no follow-up claims or kills, rubs me the wrong way (Cactus brings it up again, earning some soft town-points). As I keep reading through Day 2 I see less and less I like. When I find that you've been pushing the prim train since Day 2 (and pushing it alongside Poly until that train was really picking up steam), I feel like I've got my analysis. Of three potential candidates (MS, Kami, and boogie), your play is the only one I can see clearly fitting into a scum basket. An early claim of bulletproof to earn towncred (so successful I was even willing to follow you on a policy-lynch), and everything else I said above, makes me thing you could be bulletproof scum playing a deep game, and right now of our potential lynches I think you're our best choice.

EBWOP: my line about Cactus in the above-paragraph was supposed to mention that the soft town-points were enough for me to temporarily take them off my favored lynch list, but I forgot to drop it in. That's why I only see three potentially-useful lynches on the board atm.

Glad to see I'm giving *someone* funny feelings inside their belly. Nice to know that somebody cares.

The votes are as follows:

Primrosette: 1 (dmboogie)
dmboogie: 1 (Grim Wolf)

Approximately 4 days remain. 8 alive means 5 to lynch. Who decides when the end is nigh?

I do.

(that was my bah post)

j

Glad to see I'm giving *someone* funny feelings inside their belly. Nice to know that somebody cares.

My only reaction is to link to this.

"Time of beef" has the same energy as Dodd drunkposting and Grim accusing the Innocent Child of being maf, btw.

I personally agree that there might be more VTs out there. So far, there's been three known so far, if we're counting MS. I wouldn't be surprised if there were one or two running about that haven't been revealed yet.

I'll have to do more research into Boogiewoogie, though.

I'd also really like some more thoughts from MS, Riki, and Prim, plus maybe some actual Cactus content to quench my thirst.

i will provide some content when it's not 1:44am and i don't have to wake up at 7am.

it'll probably be bad content because i don't know wtf i'm doing but ... ey, you asked