Survival Of The Fittest

im obvs still waiting on jace's thoughts but eyeing dodd's iso in light of him being scum: he didnt have any real read on toben before he died unfortunately since it would be good precedent as to how he treats scummates. like all he does is express surprise that toben hasnt posted much and then joke about how much he talks when he Does post which doesnt tell us anything.

that said he's had boogie low in his reads list for ages and has been actively happy to lynch him at any point since like day 3 which doesnt guarantee boogie isnt mafia or anything but its a positive sign, yknow. he's rated everyone else left neutrally (except me! hi dodd!) which is kinda useless to us cause id expect him to give a neutral rating to his living scummate. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i would argue the possibility of dodd pretending to be suspect of his last scummate boogie to throw suspicion off of him when dodd comes up scum but hes been >:|ing at boogie since before he was in danger so i dont think thats super likely. feel free to quote this at me if boogie kills us all

im gonna be That Guy and do some Past Mafia Research

Fenris wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:50 am im gonna be That Guy and do some Past Mafia Research

fen save yourself it's never worth iiiiiit

ok past mafia research was quick

basically i feel like backup doctor is a weird claim to invent especially when it hasnt been used in any game irina's been part of; that said its also a very easy claim to make because its a weird niche role and its very unlikely that anyone would already have it. it sounds less immediately suspicious than claiming VT, but it has basically the same amount of meaning.

that said we dont have any claims that are really Testable at this stage, we'd need a vig to test doctor or bulletproof claims and i can only really back up my cop claim with iso, so idk how helpful claiming ends up being honestly.

at this point tbh i might trust jace the most just because "i forgot to use my ability and also defended scum twice" is not the lie that i would come up with if i was lying about being the doctor lmao

no one's counter-claimed you and there's a flipped miller so i feel like your cop claim is about as ironclad as it could be

thought: scum have safeclaims?

we have no claimed tracker or watcher, so it's entirely possible that dodd was given watcher as a safeclaim, he just mixed up the role so we caught him in his lie super easily

this could explain the weirdness of irina's backup doctor claim - it wasn't something she thought of on her own.

im willing to straight up believe jace's claim because if you take every claim at face value, this is a game with three active town power roles and thats not a lot, theres no way he's faking it and there's only two town night roles

guaranteed scum:
cactus

basically confirmed town:
fen (cop)
jace (doc)

vanilla townie quagmire:
yugi
zetsu

bulletproof:
dmboogie (confirmed town by my role PM)

???:
irina

here are all the flips so far for reference

Paige, vanilla townie
Polybius, vanilla townie
Kermit, turncoat staff (miller)
Toben, workhorse (mafia goon)
Slam, roleblocker
Gianni, vanilla townie
MS, paranoid gun owner
Decoy, wiki queen (mafia goon)
Deamon, innocent child

and again,

claimed roles:
fenris: cop
jace: doctor
yugi: vanilla townie
zetsu: vanilla townie
dmboogie: 1x bulletproof
irina: backup doctor
dodd: lmao

if we take every claim at face value, that means 5/16ths of this game are vanilla townies

innocent child is a confirmed vanilla townie, backup doctor is vanilla townie unless they outlive the doctor, PGO and BP are both vanilla townie with passive night actions (with PGO having negative town utility compared to BP)

so this is obviously a very vanilla game with a deemphasized night phase. even with that, i find it hard to believe that 8/16ths of the game has absolutely no night action. (9/16ths counting backup doctor)

and of course, I believe that Fen and Jace's claims basically confirm them, so remaining scum is one of the following

Irina
Yugi
Zetsu

listed in order of suspicion

i too am confirmed town by our role pm this is why we're best friends !!!!!

anyway i skimmed irina's iso since she hasnt said a lot and she has def been siding with dodd basically up until after i outed him and even her post after that wasnt particularly, like, damning. another one of those things id consider bad scum play except that irina's new anyways.

i was gonna give yugi and zetsu takes but i have like very little on them honestly. zetsu's rabid jump to lynch dodd and also her insistence on keeping her vote on decoy even when most of us were jumping to jace are both good looks imo. yugi missed the decoy train probs due to time zone stuff but has seemed mostly reticent to jump on any particular lynch except when poly claimed as him lmao. thats less of a good look but not like damning or anything. ill probably do more thorough iso reads Not Now

This is kind of weird, given that I was given backup doctor I'd actually think that there would be another backup kind of role. but guess I'm the only one. Then again double say, cop seems kind of much. also you'll post too fast I do my class work for an hour-

I've been mostly defending/devil's advocating Dodd due to the fact I literally cannot find like, anything in his posts that triggered me off, and Deamon was setting off a hunch that he was scum for me soooooo yeah I'm town but like Jace, I've been defending scum all along. Oops. Dodd might have gotten off with 'I got the roles wrong checking now oh wait I AM tracker oops', but literally watcher = tracker makes no sense.

I'm still going over everything trying to figure out how to pretend I know what I'm talking about but can someone do a quick explain like I'm 5 about why everyone here is so sure Dodd is scum? I just wanna know where we all are on this while I go back and reread a couple days.

Jace wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:06 am I'm still going over everything trying to figure out how to pretend I know what I'm talking about but can someone do a quick explain like I'm 5 about why everyone here is so sure Dodd is scum? I just wanna know where we all are on this while I go back and reread a couple days.

lmao whoops i hit submit by accident

anyways guilty cop result + very bad claim; individually either of those would probably get him lunched but the combination is absolutely insurmountable

Okay reading back, yeah, unless Dodd is pulling a Kermit/Goose/Pretty much everyone we've mislynched, I am pretty convinced he's scum..

As for the others, it's a crapshoot because we're all united in figuring this out and I feel like that gives some of us the ability to take an active role in analyzing and theorizing and I feel like that gives Fen and DM both some armor in terms of keeping the suspicion off of them by taking a leadership role in doing so. It'd be really easy to exploit our trust in your long posts if either of you hypothetically WERE scum.

This is purely my paranoia speaking though, but I can't say I fully trust anyone here right now? That being said though, like you all, I'm pretty sure Cactus is scum which is a feeling compounded by the fact that I protected him twice and have been wrong 100% of the time so far this game, even when I'm riding other people's thoughts soooo statistically... We may as well get that out of the way first.

As for the rest of you though, I'm gonna need to do some deeper reading in the morning, because while I agree with all your guys' analyses, everything everyone does is sus right now and I need to stop listening to y'all and start doin some deep diving before I end up the last townie standing simply by virtue of being too inept to figure anything out by myself lmao bc that'd be a wise tactic tbh

To elaborate: Dodd claimed Watcher (a role where you can investigate someone and find out if anyone used any actions on them) and then described using it as if he were a Tracker (a role where you can investigate someone and find out who they used their action on last night).