Okie dokie, here we go:
Post 66, Irina makes passing reference to "L(u)nch all liars," a common piece of mafia theory/oft-repeated catchphrase. Wherever it's been picked up (likely past games here) it shows at least attempted engagement with the theoretical side of the game.
Post 113 Irina makes quiet passing reference to maybe being a miller. Yeah, it's walked back and is in the context of the various jokes... but it's also this weird, quiet little soft-claim with a hint of deniability baked in that comes apropos of nothing. It's the "Greetings fellow town!" maneuver, and catches my interest.
Post 165 Irina softly defends Jace and also spends a good bit of time musing on how scum read their role PMs and what safeclaims are good or bad. This stuff is actually mostly on-point... but it shows a thought process paying a lot of attention to how scum would do things/get away with it. That is a potential scum-hunting technique... but that's not really how it's being channeled here.
As we roll along, Irina pushes Dodd's slot a little. We have some much more typical mafia play--a call for a vote count, a vote withheld to allow for discussion, etc. She flips from
not being sure what to make of Dodd's posts to
standing by the rationale behind them to
thinking it's a ploy in pretty quick succession. I can buy it in most ways... but then we come a bit further.
Post 295 sees Irina down with targeting Dodd, or Jace, or really anyone on policy. Then later, she
goes to bat for Jace while poking more at Dodd, before later that day
going to bat for Dodd while poking more at Jace. But also still town-reading him. But also again invoking mafia theory (VTs are low value).
So, over the first phase, Irina actually brings up a bunch of typical mafia talking points and strategic theories. At the same time, she pushes for targeting Dodd, or Jace, or anyone easy... without ever committing to a scum-read on anyone. This is paired with a totally unprompted softclaim and an unanticipated engagement with a conversation on safeclaims that sees her taking a scum perspective.
Snap to phase two, where she opens with
a classic scum celebration post. The post also both town and scumreads Jace.
In
Post 447 Irina breaks down info gained from Dodd's flip. Included here is a musing that Jace seems town because he went really hard, as opposed to scum, who would be more content doing what Dodd was doing. I immediately poke at this because, again, I'm detecting a scum thought process here. This is
clarified later with the assertion that scum prefer to kick stuff off or push it along, then sit to the side as town eats itself. This is, once again, some solid time spent poking into scum's mentality and strategy... with a seeming idea that optimal scumplay is giving little pokes to keep things moving while keeping one's head down.
Post 546 sees Irina vote Jace (seemingly mostly for information) while also poking at his and Yugi's claims as seeming fake. This is striking to me because within the post an adequate reason to be suspicious is given, but the case laid out sidesteps that. It's noncommittal, almost compulsively.
Irina's next post
posits something other than a townread for Yugi if Jace flips town, which is odd for me as much of what Yugi did looks totally mad for scum in light of a Jace townflip. It also engages with why Yugi might be left alive by scum (which, notably, happened, though I think there are some pretty clear other reasons here besides scum maybe borrowing the idea--Paige had more or less been cleared by virtue of Jace's flip
and had crumbed a non-VT role over the course of the debate).
We get
a joke about Irina as godfather followed by
shade thrown at Jack for being on the Jace train while thinking him town... exactly where Irina is (which is vaguely alluded to in the post). Again, a scum reason to do this comes immediately to mind (cutting numbers... something that's felt at the core of her play since all the way back at the "Dodd/Jace/policy" stage).
In
662 Irina again notes that she's doing exactly what she's scum-reading Jack for, again has ideas on how scum should mount a defense, and yet stays on Jace. We also see some poking at last game.
A bit more
possible scum gloating in 677. But at
805 we get the big one: digging into speculation, flavor, etc. before coming to the conclusion that Jace and Yugi still ring more town, despite Zetsu's claim
and despite the fact that Irina is still voting for Jace.
Next is
808, the big Boogie read post, which sees some more speculating as to motives, some reads on Boogie, and a noted desire for info via the elimination of Jace or Jack. Preferably Jace. Despite the town read.
So, day two is all over the place, but notably Irina votes Jace pretty early with a rather uninvested case, then spends the phase doing a lot of musing on scum mentality and chasing people for for being halfheartedly on Jace... while never doing anything to move from that position herself.
Irina's first post this phase again does some of the scum celebration thing. The rest of the phase is pretty recent, but it's a lot of soft preemptive defense coupled with some more speculation on scum fakeclaims.
Basically, is it a slam dunk? No. But what I see is Irina focusing a lot on scum play patterns and strategy, with a particular eye towards laying low, encouraging town to eat itself, and thinning numbers at all costs. Then I compare to her play, which is laying low, encouraging fights (that led to town eating itself), and thinning numbers. Aside from the instances of possible scum celebration, it's not that I'm comparing Irina to a grand list of scumtells or specifically catching her inconsistency--it's that she's quietly laid out a theoretical scum plan of action that happens to match what she's doing in the game. The mindset at play behind the words seems to be taking the view of scum, and it just leaves me thinking something is amiss.
Not voting yet because there's the slight wrinkle of my second favorite pick currently dueling Irina and also me wanting responses to the other questions first. But there you go, my case.
Writing walls like this hurts my soul (and fingers ><) but in this case I think there's something to be said for the aggregate/progression that's not really there in any single isolated post.
