Return Of The General SOTF Discussion Thread

[Grand Moff Hissa]

So, in my archiving of old material, I was shocked to realize that this thread never made the jump. I think it actually serves a unique and important role as a place for slightly longer-form, persistent discussions of SOTF and writing theory and so on, and thus it lives again.

Welcome to the General SOTF Discussion Thread, where you can chat about SOTF. This can be about versions past or present, RPing theory, dreams for the future, and so on. Anything goes!

[Cactus]

Here's a general discussion I thought up while writing my last post.

In it, Jeff criticises Paloma for murdering Abel like, right off the hop. Whatever her reasons, it made me think:

Do you think that there's something to be said for it being a worse crime to kill someone right away after the kidnapping, versus six or seven days in, when everyone's probably suffering from some form of PTSD and all kinds of deprivation? Is it more understandable, or is fear that much of a motivator that you could explain it away?

I'm not sure how many, if any of our winners killed right away, but it's an interesting thing to wonder how killing someone on the first or second day matters versus killing someone later on.

[Namira]

I think in most circumstances, being willing to murder at the very start is worse than caving after days of being ground down.

However, a lot can depend on what state of affairs things re in for the characters. Not all killing is created equal. The scenario might differ.

Somebody could kill another in slow and painful fashion. That's different from a panicked reaction at the start. Overall though, I think it trends worse the earlier it happens.

[MethodicalSlacker]

I think when we're talking about the nature of the crime, there's a distinction to be made between murders that occur due to a freak accident and murders that are long thought out and worried about. The further you go, the less accidental the murders get. A lot of murders early on are crimes of passion rather than being premeditated, I feel. They arise from an immediate pressure to get the single kill you need to set you above everyone else. If anything, there's less pressure towards the middle than at the start; if you've survived long enough without killing, you might be less likely to view it as a necessity. If you start killing after surviving for a while without it, it's probably because of a conscious decision on your part rather than because you were pressured into it.

So, IMO, killing earlier on is less bad.

[Kermit]

posting this here because it's sotf-related but too niche to have its own thread!

I'm grouping Alton's rankings by child wow here's the stuff for kids who died day one and two

[+] sad trombone

Abel Zelenovic: Abel's a decent guy, in good shape, but he doesn't have quite enough seriousness to him. It's very hard to imagine him in the sort of situation he's facing now, and that suggests that he may not be the sort to take to it naturally or cope with it well.
Abel Zelenovic: Well, that spares me the embarrassment of kicking him up a notch for the picture perfect weapon draw just for him to then utterly fail to use it in any way. I have to say, I expected him to go on the earlier end, but not first thing. Then again, the first moments seem chaotic, and it's really most surprising that we didn't see a more major upset as well.

Benedict Murray: Benny's good nature is undercut by his horrible ego, and I think he'll find others far less tolerant of him than he expects. Coupled with physical deficiencies, and he's in for a rough ride.
Benedict Murray (Shotgun Flashlight): There's a very real chance he shoots himself in the face trying to figure out how this works.
Benedict Murray: Head trauma isn't something to mess around with. Medical personnel have you rest for a reason, not that there was too much chance of him coming out better given the situation and all. This will probably be most interesting for its effect on the dynamics of the group he left behind, who don't seem to be expecting it.

Beryl Mahelona: Beryl operates on a different plane from everybody else. That, I think, will keep her safe until suddenly it doesn't. She'll go further than she has any right to, but not the whole way.
Beryl Mahelona (Chainsaw): I know she can't swing it around to mow down her foes, but if anyone were to do so and make me believe it, it'd be Beryl. She's just uncanny in that way.
Beryl Mahelona: That one took me by surprise. Beryl was a force around school—not a force with a clear aim or end, necessarily, but she felt woven into the very fabric of the student body. I suppose I let that lull me into believing her more capable than she was. Then again, I think it's hard to argue that she was brought low by anything other than a fluke

Christine Bright: Knowing your way around a fight does not help if you have major enemies. Meddling is a great way to make and maintain just that sort of foe.
Christine Bright (Big Mouth Billy Bass [15th Anniversary Edition]): Don't worry, be happy. Something like that. I wonder if these items are as tedious to collect and assign as they are to talk about?
Christine Bright: The strongest woman in the world falls. For real, Christine borrowed trouble she had no business courting. That's the pitfall of arrogance, and of assuming that everyone's on the same wavelength when it comes to just how serious a fight's going to be.

Dante Valerio: Playing peacemaker only delays the inevitable, and that's all Dante will be doing—pushing things back little by little until someone doesn't bite and ends his hopes permanently.
Dante Valerio (The Liberator 3D-Printed Pistol): A bad gun is still a gun, and adds some actual bite to calls for everyone else to sit down, shut up, and play nice. On the other hand, I don't think Dante has even that much assertiveness in him, and trying to fire a warning shot with this looks like it might take his hand.
Dante Valerio: That was more or less exactly what I expected from all sides. I should probably send his sister a card.

Felix Rees: Another geeky magician, Felix lacks Nick Ogilvie's social acumen and array of potential allies but also Phillip Olivares' physical drawbacks and freaky-even-to-other-freaks vibe. Call it a net negative.
Felix Rees (Walther P99): A useful draw does at least a tiny bit to save Felix from himself. Not enough, though.
Felix Rees: Felix was unable to pull himself together and was crushed under the weight of matters that didn't even really involve him. I am left wondering how hard the gas really hit him, or if he was trying to do something cute so as to seem harmless and gather allies—sort of a more-evolved Myles ploy. A shame we'll never know.

Toby Underwood: Sociable, fit, and able to take care of himself well, what Toby lacks is the special spark or zeal to kick him up a notch. He's a good guy, in a common enough sort of way, so he's grouped with the other commoners.
Toby Underwood (Kel-Tec P-32): It's a gun, and one that's likely easier to handle than most of what's in play, but how much does that really mean if there's a strong chance its recipient won't ever use it?
Toby Underwood: Well, well, Toby. I'm actually really impressed you managed to keep up a normal, reasonable face for so long around school with all that darkness lurking inside. Unfortunately, it was ill-considered and aimless, just like your fate, but that's how it goes sometimes. Really, it was not the moment to think with your dick.

Violet Quinn: The less-interesting Violet. She might take a bad stand and die for it, but really she's unremarkable and more of a group-oriented sort and a team player. Hard to call.
Violet Quinn (Prison Flail [sock w/ a padlock inside]): This is only useful if you're too unimaginative to realize you can achieve exactly the same effect with a rock. Or, I suppose, if you don't wear socks.
Violet Quinn: She was probably doomed from the second the superior Quinn set eyes on her, but there were quite a number of mistakes along the way as well. Should've learned to use that weapon, should've had backup, should've been more assertive. But at least her death won't be in vain; her name and gun will live on and hopefully accomplish something more than she did.

Yuko Hayashibara: A physical edge over her sisters is balanced out by a tendency towards behaviors quite likely to get her into serious trouble. All I've known the anti-bullying crowd to do is irritate the more volatile students.
Yuko Hayashibara (Nock Gun): Far too fiddly and archaic a firearm to see reliable use, but at the same time it is a gun so it's not hurting her chances. Just, basically any other gun would be better.
Yuko Hayashibara: Yuko got wrecked by fortune here, I have to say. Ultimately, however, what will likely be most interesting about her death is its lingering effects on her sisters. Personally, I predict it will hurt them far more than it helps.

Bree Jones: On paper, Bree looks a lot like students ranked more highly, and she should have it all going for her, but there's just something that doesn't quite click. She has all the pieces to be a force to be reckoned with, but none of the glue.
Bree Jones (Syringe w/ needle containing adrenaline): Hey, look. Mr. White isn't the only one with a deep love for Quentin Tarantino.
Bree Jones: My doubts remain. I don't think Mikki can carry these people, and I'm not even sure she'll want to stick around to try.
Bree Jones: I expected Mikki's departure to cause Bree a world of trouble, but not in that fashion. Still, there's the good-on-paper effect in action.

Cammellia Walker-Grimsley: I guess her outdoors knowledge is a plus? But she's basically a nonentity and I don't think that will change in the game. Friendly does nothing when paired with apathy.
Cammellia Walker-Grimsley (Nail-studded Baseball Bat): I will be flat-out flabbergasted if she uses this for anything at all. It's too overtly brutal, and for someone with a peaceful disposition, that will make it even harder to make the necessary mental leaps.
Cammellia Walker-Grimsley: Cammy is the lodestone pulling her group down. Ironically, she too might do better freed from their protection. If she didn't die immediately, at least, she might start to figure out how to take care of herself.
Cammellia Walker-Grimsley: I called Cammy a lodestone, and it seems I was right given how her allies tossed her overboard.

Caroline Ford: I've seen the mess she'll become right up close and personal. A disaster waiting to happen, the only real question is whether anyone else will be caught up in it.
Caroline Ford (Textbook of safe and edible plants): This strikes me as highly likely to go horribly wrong, as she misidentifies something or otherwise overestimates her expertise. And that's assuming she even makes it that far.
Caroline Ford: Where do I start? The lost pills? The gun? The questionable interactions with others? Caroline is currently a hazard, but the way she's been acting leaves me thinking that's she's more dangerous to herself than anyone else.
Caroline Ford: I have to say, I'm surprised she was together enough to manage that last stunt. The fact of the matter is, though, an early exit for Caroline was inevitable even without the disadvantages that piled up for her on the first day.

Daniel Chamnanma: Jack of all trades, master of none except wishing he was the best at something. I foresee picking the wrong time and manner to try to make a name for himself.
Daniel Chamnanma (Flare Gun): There aren't many situations in which this would actually do him any good. Certainly, it's unlikely to improve his odds.
Daniel Chamnanma: Impromptu landing pad is a purpose of a sort, I suppose. Early bonds are valuable; too bad Danny's is with someone just as useless as he is.
Daniel Chamnanma: I made fun of Danny for trying to make a name for himself, but if you have to go out there are far worse ways to do it. It's just a shame it didn't mean a thing since Shauna got caught immediately anyways.

Desiree Beck: Desiree does her best to be as unknown as possible, but too intentional an attempt to be inconspicuous ironically tends to have the opposite effect desired. I doubt she'll have much more luck staying to the sidelines here than in the normal world.
Desiree Beck (Water Pistol): Another rather uninteresting piece of trash. The joke here, I think, is that it's a toy version of an item that would be useful were it real, but we've seen the same concept played out more cleverly with the bug-gun, so I'm giving the hosts a C- on this one.
Desiree Beck: Instantly robbed, Desiree managed to display the better part of valor and regroup with a crew that should at least keep her from immediately dying. It's something, albeit not much.
Desiree Beck: Desiree might've appreciated dying instantly out of nowhere. Somehow, it just feels right.

Jeremiah Anderson: A huge guy who likes to shake things up and yet hasn't pissed off most of the class is in better shape than many likely expect. He's a freak, but really who isn't? I doubt anyone will be all that worried about it.
Jeremiah Anderson (Claw hammer): A simple, blunt, brutal implement of potential destruction. And the hammer matches perfectly.
Jeremiah Anderson: Now geared up with a trusted ally and a potential sacrificial lamb, Jeremiah is all set up to actually live up to his potential. I saw how he swung that mace around, and what the hammer trades in power it reclaims in speed and finesse.
Jeremiah Anderson: Mm, I called this one wrong. I didn't know Jeremiah as well as a lot of the others, and I wasn't quite aware just how single-minded and unreasonable his rage tended to run.

Kayla Harris: Kayla is a force of chaos, but chaos on top of itself is not additive. I find it far more likely that her particular quirks and proclivities lead to a rash decision at precisely the wrong time.
Kayla Harris (Steel folding chair): Don't bother calling the ref. It's not enough to give Kayla a material edge.
Kayla Harris: Kayla just hasn't impressed me that much so far. She's still prone to all the things that got her into danger even around school, and she hasn't shown too much evidence of adaptation thus far.
Kayla Harris: There we go, Kayla falling victim to her own proclivity for abrupt nonsense manifesting out of nowhere. I can't help but feel this was partially due to poor diplomatic handling of her first day encounter.

Kyle Harrison: Tiny and far too nice are alright things to be around school, but in a killing game the only way they'll help Kyle is by convincing others to keep him around for his utility and apparent harmlessness. I think he's too guileless to leverage that sort of situation in any meaningful way, though, so he's doomed to playing support until he catches a stray bullet or intervenes at a bad time.
Kyle Harrison (Potato launcher + 1 lb. sack of potatoes): What do you know? It's trash with a side of fries.
Kyle Harrison: His group seems to fit together well, have some chemistry, and all be on the same page. A shame, then, that what they're devoted to is throwing their lives away by flinging themselves heedlessly into danger in the name of altruism.
Kyle Harrison: I think God was trying to give him an easy out but missed.

Mercy Ames: I thought cheerleaders needed good teamwork. Mercy is just not the right sort to persist; she fades into the background, but not in the way where that works to one's advantage.
Mercy Ames (Bottle of powdered arsenic): Not abject trash, but this draw presents a double problem: it'll take a lot to work up to killing people by poisoning them to begin with, and then the execution is likely to be difficult indeed. Only a fool takes food or drink from someone else in this sort of situation. Still, she slides under the radar enough that I suppose it's possible, if unlikely.
Mercy Ames: If only Mercy took a little more from her squad mate, she'd have real potential to shake the island. If only Lori had gotten her draw, we'd be looking at a new first day spree record.
Mercy Ames: See, if Mercy had half a clue this would've never happened to her because she would've poisoned everybody else herself first. That, or gotten rid of a difficult to detect and easy to misuse liability of a weapon. Oh, and while I'm at it I'm going to just throw out that the number of people drinking from water bottles with the seal broken is pretty appalling to me—where's the attention to detail? Your lives are at stake. Pay attention.

Mikki Swift: Everybody knows her name now. She's synonymous with a huge event, yet escapes the real blame for the bad parts of it. She obviously knows how to maneuver and work her peers, and that's the most important thing.
Mikki Swift ( Thomet MP9): A good pull, for sure. Compact and frightfully powerful. It gives Mikki some bite to her bark.
Mikki Swift: A group is something, though she seems somewhat rattled by what happened to Abel. I'm tentatively optimistic, but that's taking into account familiarity with the others as a grounding factor, and given my doubts about their long-term viability she may well be on her own again soon.
Mikki Swift: Well, everyone will remember Mikki's name after this one, that's for sure. I wonder if all the #Swiftball tags are going to get brigaded now.

Phillip Olivares: An obnoxious clown-obsessive wannabe magician with asthma. Totally fucked.
Phillip Olivares (Macuahuitl): Lipstick on a pig. Or maybe clown face paint.
Phillip Olivares: He showed more guts than I counted on, but mostly in the form of flinging himself headlong into danger only to turn around and throw away all possible goodwill earned from that action.
Phillip Olivares: This was more or less exactly what I expected. Points to Zach for wringing some use out of him

[Grand Moff Hissa]

It's fun to see them grouped like that and I'm not gonna say more 'cause I'm close to the project.

---

That said, I was poking at my own data (TM) and wanted to delve into another topic that might benefit from being laid out clearly and in one spot all at once: the perception of Hero scarcity.

Lately, the idea has been floating around that there aren't many Hero Cards left. We've seen them become increasingly scarcely-played as the game goes on (though that's pretty normal), and there's certainly a feeling that there's not much in the way of wiggle room. But is it true?

No. No it is not.

In fact, here past the halfway point, there's some interesting math to be shared.

Right now, V7 has 41 remaining handlers with unrolled characters. Of these 41 handlers, 28 hold unplayed Hero Cards. That means that 68.3% of the game still has a Hero Card (by comparison, only 22, or 53.7%, still have a Swap Card). Over two thirds of the game still has their Hero--in fact, more than twice as many people have Heroes as do not have them.

More than that, we have seen only 18 Hero Cards played to this point in the game. What that means is that there are more Heroes currently available than have been played, by a sizable degree (for those interested, I count 24 Swap Cards played so far).

So why, then, do Heroes feel scarce?

I do have a few theories.

First off, it's worth noting that having a Hero Card is very different from holding any intention of playing one. I talked about it before, but only V4 saw more than half its handlers play their Heroes. Aside from that outlier, typical Hero usage lives in the 35-45% range.

There are a bunch of reasons not to play a Hero. A particularly common one is that doing so would knock the handler in question out of the game. Of the remaining V7 Heroes, 16 (57.1%) belong to handlers on their final character. This is, naturally, a big factor to consider when deciding whether to play your card... especially at this relatively early stage.

This is, as a slight tangent, probably a result of the shift to the roll-by-character method. Of the 41 remaining handlers, 23 (56.1%) are on their final character, 10 (24.4%) have two characters left, 6 (14.6%) have three, and 2 (4.9%) have four. Both four-character handlers have a character not protected from multiple rolls, one due to late adoption, the other to second adoption--which is to say, everyone with four characters left has adopted, possibly multiple times. This leveling of the playing field is the result of a system in which on of our four-character handlers will be, next rolls, four time as likely to lose a character as a one-character handler is to be eliminated... and also at risk of dropping half their cast in one go, should their late/multiple adoptees get hit.

Furthermore, there's the question of why people play Heroes to begin with. I believe there's been a bit of a cultural shift on that front. In days of yore, it was not uncommon to use Heroes as a disposal method for excess or unwanted characters. This probably peaked in V4, where handlers found themselves overwhelmed trying to juggle an entire cast for the whole game. From V5 on, however, "fodder" characters were discouraged, and the lower character cap offered less opportunity to get in over one's head. While V7 restored the V4 character cap, that does not immediately erase how handlers think of their characters.

In fact, V7's cast is generally very tight, with most everyone getting some share of development and attention. This also works against large number of Heroes; handlers are more likely to view all their characters as relatively even, or to hesitate more to sacrifice one off-handedly.

So, then, Heroes slowly but surely have come more in line with their original stated purpose: to be used to save a character you really like.

This, then, depends on readership, investment, etc. etc. If Heroes are becoming infrequent, it's because handlers just don't feel like playing them... which is fine. There's long been this sort of unspoken expectation for people to Hero, but as discussed above no version except V4 has seen the majority actually do it. There are dozens fo good reasons not to Hero, and dozens of good reasons to do so.

Just, I think it's important that any conversations on the subject spring from a factual starting point, and the simple fact is that, whatever the reason for seemingly-lower rates of Heroing, it can't really be pinned on a lack of cards.

[Kermit]

[+] day 3 - 4

Alexander Brooke: What puts Alexander in a worse spot than, say, Clayton is that he's reliant on a coping mechanism I doubt he'll be allowed to keep and he's also got numerous other personal and physical deficiencies to drag him down.
Alexander Brooke (Grand Power K100): He can't load it, aim it, or use it with any reliability. This makes the gun worthless to him.
Alexander Brooke: Hm, if not for how obviously he's the third wheel to Jeremiah and Nia, I'd actually bump Alexander up a spot. He's doing well, keeping his cool, willing to at least try to take control. All of that is good. And he has allies, who are keeping him alive for now. If he doesn't implode by tomorrow, he gets moved up.
Alexander Brooke: With Jeremiah out of the way, Alexander is now a significantly more equal and trusted partner to Nia. His myriad drawbacks are still in play, but he's been far exceeding reasonable assumptions, and he's shown that he has some tricks up his sleeve if underestimated.
Alexander Brooke: I guess you can say Alexander got... blindsided.

Arjen Kramer: Arjen is odd, in this way that makes it seem he may have a screw or two loose. Fortunately for him, this is the perfect moment for such things to manifest, and that combined with his solid physical condition will likely take him further than might be expected.
Arjen Kramer (Flammenschwert): Swords are worse than knives or guns, in most cases, as they're more difficult to properly wield and harder to conceal, but they far outpace the garbage much of the class got.
Arjen Kramer: I can't believe he went back just to talk at Marco. I hate to admit it, but I laughed hard at that one. He has the edge, though he hasn't realized it yet. He's making enemies, but there's far more to him than meets the eye.
Arjen Kramer: Arjen's course after ditching Marco, unfortunately, has done just a little to shake my faith in him. It's clear that he has what it takes to become a whole lot more, but it's starting to look like he may be hellbent on refusing to fulfill his potential.
Arjen Kramer: You know, for a few minutes there, I was certain he'd made it loose. I shouldn't be surprised by his fate, given all the terrible decisions he made, but I am.

Blake Davis: Actual experience with weapons and stressful situations doesn't cancel out social problems. Care too much what others think of you, and you'll quickly find yourself acting solely for them. That's doubly dangerous if they don't like you much.
Blake Davis (Trick Handcuffs): The most use he gets out of these may be convincing others to use them to lock him up and then turning the tables. He'll jump a bit if he gets hold of something he can use later, though.
Blake Davis: Blake is doing better than I expected, but he's with a very easygoing group. I think they might well not hold together functionally past the next two days, though, and Blake stands to lose the most in their dissolution. He's trending upwards, but not enough for me to jump him a tier yet.
Blake Davis: What on earth was Blake's end goal with that theft? He would've had to abandon the group, but when confronted seemed so reluctant to do so. He also managed some of the most unconvincing rhetoric I've seen yet, and nearly got himself shot because he just had to punch a girl for revenge. I guess the military will take anyone these days.
Blake Davis: It wouldn't have happened if he'd not gotten himself exiled from his group, or if he'd been a bit more paranoid about supplies, but really, this one's hard to blame him for. Blake got outplayed hard, with no room to recover.

Bryan Merryweather: Power without will behind it is no power at all. Meddling with nothing to back it up is just honorable suicide.
Bryan Merryweather (M1 Garand): In anyone else's hands this would do some good. Bryan, I don't even know if he'd be able to pretend he can use it.
Bryan Merryweather: I think we've seen some very good evidence for why Bryan is going to have a very rough and very brief tenure in this game.
Bryan Merryweather: I'm pretty sure Bryan's physical inability to hurl himself bodily into danger is the only thing keeping him alive right now.
Bryan Merryweather: The problem with being a zealot or an idealist is it's too easy to get stuck in your own perspective, to imagine that everyone sees the world through your own lens or else one diametrically opposed. I'm pretty sure Bryan had no idea what hit him, and wouldn't have even had he watched Claudeson pull the trigger.

Camila Cañizares: Do one thing well and sometimes that's all it takes. But do the wrong thing, and you're going nowhere fast. Camila will probably be much easier to sort out come the second or third day, assuming her survival to that point.
Camila Cañizares (Teddy bear with too many eyes): Now that's a good trash draw. Someone put work into that one. The mixture of traditionally-comforting and alarmingly-creepy motifs is a real work of art. I bet someone starts selling them on Etsy within the week.
Camila Cañizares: You know what they say about good deeds. Camila has been punished hard, and now has to contend with emotional, mental, and physical trauma. Worse, she's the one liable to drag her group down now, and may well discover them less willing to sacrifice themselves for her benefit than she was for her former allies.
Camila Cañizares: Camila's willingness to throw herself headlong into danger for those who don't appreciate her and her generally poor judgment in others is almost enough to kick her down further when combined with her injury and history. We'll see.
Camila Cañizares: I mean, with a situation like Camila's I can understand giving up. Don't agree with the choice, but I can see where she was coming from.

Cheridene Williams: There's "potential on paper" and then there's reality and the reality is that Cheridene is just not going to do very well.
Cheridene Williams (Vape pen + 1 pineapple flavored cartridge): They couldn't even spare an extra cartridge or two? I suppose it's a fitting update for the traditional last cigarette before execution.
Cheridene Williams: My mind has not yet changed.
Cheridene Williams: With someone else, I might praise the ability to fade into the wallpaper while a group falls to pieces. With Cheridene, the problem is I don't think she's gaining anything by it, just freezing up and failing to assert herself.
Cheridene Williams: And you were starting to doubt me.

Clayton Barber: A lot of disabilities can be overcome with the right attitude and circumstances. Clay's is not one of these, barring near-miraculous luck. He can hold together alright up close, but he'll have to deal with a distance situation at some point, or moving quickly in unsteady terrain, and then he's in big trouble.
Clayton Barber (Street Sword: Practical Use of the Long Blade by Phil Elmore): The thing that screws Clay over here isn't that it's a book (I'm pretty sure he actually can read, by the way), but that his options for upgrading are severely limited by his disability; he'll be cast upon the kindness of others, and he's no Ms. Congeniality himself.
Clayton Barber: Clayton's opening moments showed why I was initially reluctant to write him off completely. Everything after showed why I changed my mind.
Clayton Barber: I haven't seen him in a while. Honestly, I'm not even entirely sure he's still alive.
Clayton Barber: Insurmountable physical limitations prove insurmountable. News at eleven.

Dolores Upton: Dolly's tough to get a read on. She has this spooky vibe, but probably can't back it up. Being calm in the face of disaster is just a couple steps from being placid and docile.
Dolores Upton (Bowie knife): It's a good knife. That's not enough to move Dolly on its own, but certainly it's an asset.
Dolores Upton: Everything is pointing more and more towards Dolly being fairly normal, restrained, and low-key. That leaves her right at home here, especially with the disadvantage of a loved one who's prone to causing trouble.
Dolores Upton: Dolly is what she is. Now shackled to Marceline to some degree, and part of one of the less distinct groups formed early on, she could go a lot of places but my money's on "nowhere special." There was some promise from that talk with Violet, but... I just don't see how she can accomplish things and keep Marceline in check, and I think the girlfriend will take priority.
Dolores Upton: Frankly, everyone involved in this debacle made numerous entirely avoidable mistakes. The ultimate responsibility, however, rests squarely on Dolly's own shoulders. Poor communication is a real killer.

Emil Van Zandt: I looked up his YouTube videos and at least we can say he has a high tolerance for pain?
Emil Van Zandt (Collar Radar [Range of 100 yards]): Mm, the range on this is unfortunate and keeps it from being really amazing. He'll be hard to ambush, and might be able to do something proactive of his own, but we'll have to see. From what I've read, these have been very hit or miss in past versions, and those were better models.
Emil Van Zandt: Why, why, why trade Emmett for Nona? I know that expecting developed strategy from Emil is like expecting milk from a goldfish, but he had chemistry and a shared bond and someone who'd have his back on what went down with Lorenzo, and he traded it for someone who can't admit it's not a camping trip.
Emil Van Zandt: Emmett's back, on the bright side. Cecil is a worthy addition to the team as well. On the other hand, if there's anyone who's going to leave himself open to getting abruptly murdered by Erika, it's definitely Emil.
Emil Van Zandt: Well, he'll certainly be famous on the internet for that exit. Really, though, this is a perfect illustration of the value of taking a bit more time to think things through and prepare. The core concept was solid, but Emil knowingly took a fight at a weapon disadvantage and without the significant factor of his allies. Had he played this even slightly smarter, he would be alive and Lorenzo wouldn't.

Layla DeBerg: Book smarts mean absolutely nothing unless you've been reading the right books, and book smarts that aren't even strong enough to carry you through some tests despite a spell of procrastination mean even less than that.
Layla DeBerg (Swordbreaker): She may not be breaking any swords with that, but the notches make me think it'd be absolutely brutal to get stabbed by. I don't think she has what it takes to make full and proper use, but keep an eye on this weapon if it leaves her hands.
Layla DeBerg: She let her pursuit of Ron run way too long and get way too complicated. I suppose it's good to see her motivated, but she mismanaged it terribly and botched the social side of the ensuing confrontation in a way that makes me doubt she actually knows what she's doing.
Layla DeBerg: If you find conflict with everyone you meet, your lifespan will be determined entirely, and quickly, by others.
Layla DeBerg: Here we see the failings of the rabid dog approach. What set Layla apart from, say, Blaise (aside from a significant amount of luck) was her comparative incompetence at even managing the basics of the violence she sought to inflict upon others.

Ned Jackson: Friendly, funny, and able to work a crowd and attract a following, Ned has what it takes to be the team's morale booster, but not really to accomplish much of anything on his own. His success or failure will be almost inexorably linked to who he can woo to his side, and because of that he's on a time limit even more than most of his peers.
Ned Jackson (Scout Tactical Rifle): On the one hand, it's a decent gun. On the other, he seems incredibly unlikely to use it, so it may just be a dangerous object kept lying around. Could be a boon if passed to an ally or if he shapes up, or could get him killed by someone who wants it.
Ned Jackson: Ned's done alright on a physical level, and Aurelien is a powerful ally, but I can't help but feel he'll take Violet's loss especially hard. I think it'll weigh on him and may well drag him down.
Ned Jackson: It may not be for the reasons I thought, but I'm still getting bad feelings from Ned. He's floating, aimless, and he was slow to react in another tense situation.
Ned Jackson: I would say that Ned's death was a total fluke of fate, except that he was already in the process of being murdered by someone else at the time.

Reuben Walters: Reuben seems to have the deck stacked against him, but if you're that low on the totem pole you learn actual skills for survival and navigating prickly situations with your less-reasonable classmates. Reuben has exactly what it takes to not die, at least for a while, and that's what matters most.
Reuben Walters (Kimberly Nguyen's KA-BAR Combat Knife): Simple and easy to use, it won't hurt his chances any and might help, but being real Reuben's ranking where he is because of who he is.
Reuben Walters: Reuben caught me wildly off-guard, I have to admit. He's not the most competent at his newfound profession as robber, but it says good things that he has the guts to try, and he's found some room to learn without dying in the process.
Reuben Walters: Reuben becomes the first person to drop multiple tiers in a go, not that this information is useful at all given he's currently unconscious and bleeding from stab wounds. He's kept out of Highly Unfavored under the theory that if he does pull through he has slightly better odds than some might give him, and if he doesn't his placement on today's list is purely academic.
Reuben Walters: Well, he did bleed to death. A shame, and rather an undignified end for the mascot. I guess I rated him too highly—I got caught up in the myth and didn't consider the man behind it.

Rhonda Lawson: How did following work out for the rats dancing behind the Pied Piper? If you can't play the social game, the least you can do is avoid being played by everybody better than you.
if you poisoned anyone, you'd make very sure you wanted them to suffer/die before doing so.
Rhonda Lawson (Iron Fan): Too fiddly for practical untrained use, and the only utility it brings is keeping cool, which a paper fan would do better.
Rhonda Lawson: She's found a group to cling to, at least, and they don't seem to be fattening her up for the slaughter yet. Yet. Just remember, when a couple's involved, everyone else comes second.
Rhonda Lawson: Rhonda is still second fiddle to Dolly and Marceline, still with less to offer than Meka, and still entirely forgettable.
Rhonda Lawson: You see, this is why people shouldn't put so much stock in high school friendships.

Stepney Cruz: Mr. Con Artist here is going to wish he hadn't messed with quite so many people when he needs to count on them to survive and can barely tell them apart. Unless he's been lying about that whole face thing for half a decade or whatever. I wouldn't put it past him.
Stepney Cruz (Mountain Bike): That's actually a really useful draw, but I'm not sure Stepney has what it takes to understand why, and it plays poorly with his daredevil tendencies.
Stepney Cruz: Stepney has yet to make anything of himself whatsoever, or really land any sort of impression, which is saying something when somebody got shot right in front of him.
Stepney Cruz: Stepney continues to cruise in neutral, now with the addition of an expanding cast of allies just as questionably-useful as he is.
Stepney Cruz: I guess he wasn't faking. His legacy will live on now as something other people are dared to look at. I wonder if he'd be proud.

Tristan O'Hara: What do you call someone known for being a good actor and also a two-faced little bitch? A bad actor. Sleeping with half the class may catch him some sentimental mercy, but that's the bulk of what he has going for him.
Tristan O'Hara (Pugio [Roman Dagger]): Et tu? All the better for the backstabbing that follows Tristan wherever he goes. Won't save him.
Tristan O'Hara: Tristan had some good opportunities to prove me wrong and pull something off, but here he remains.
Tristan O'Hara: Tristan might actually be able to make something out of Adonis' puppydog loyalty, but I'm not going to move him up because I think Myles can and will drop him like a hot brick if it becomes prudent.
Tristan O'Hara: That wasn't quite how I expected it to go down, honestly, but a misread on the situation is in keeping with everything else I saw from him in school. Killed by Adonis, though? That has to sting.

Ariana Moretti: Confident, passionate, and scrappy, Ariana has so much on her side. The only drawback is, so far as I've heard she can't turn it off, can't back down, and that means she's one bad setup away from total disaster.
Ariana Moretti (Glock 19): A very good draw, enough that I'd almost kick her up a notch. We'll see. It all depends on how well she can keep her cool.
Ariana Moretti: Ariana is very quick to react, but that's what keeps her down a tier. She's too quick to throw herself into danger, and all it takes is one miscalculation to cut her run tragically short.
Ariana Moretti: There we go, that's more like it. Ariana helped shut down a confrontation without resorting to actual violence, impressed those around her, and may well have gained an ally, all while coming to good conclusions that will serve her well. A productive day.
Ariana Moretti: For someone so famously scrappy, Ariana has drifted between relatively low-key encounters. That's likely to her benefit at the moment, though, leaving her fresh for when conflict does become inevitable.
Ariana Moretti: Well, that was unexpected, but I'm actually going to say Ariana showed why she was rated so highly. Yes, Marco got one over on her, but it took abusing her better nature, plus a distraction, and she still left him a parting gift. Had any little factor there played out differently, she would've likely come through not only alive but relatively unharmed.

Ashlynn Martinek: Ashlynn's problem is that she's a fanatic, and enough of one that she can't quite seem to wrap her head around the idea that others aren't quite as enamored with her leadership and directions as she is. A leader who can't cultivate followers is not off to a promising start, and she'll have to either prey upon the desperate or adapt to survive.
Ashlynn Martinek (Metal Keyblade Replica): Somehow, I doubt this will be the key to her success.
Ashlynn Martinek: See, what happened with Toby, that's exactly the sort of thing somebody other than Ashlynn would be able to see coming and avoid. Needless antagonism and smugness means that her best shot at surviving is suffering something that knocks her out of that mindset, but that may in turn crash down too hard and leave her vulnerable in other, greater ways.
Ashlynn Martinek: Maybe Ashlynn's onto something, sticking with some of the very few people who won't be able to see the smug, self-righteous look on her face.
Ashlynn Martinek: We couldn't find the feed for this but I'm told she's dead now. I'm leaving her here so I don't forget her in tomorrow's round-up of the deceased.
Ashlynn Martinek: Why am I not one bit surprised Ashlynn managed to talk herself to death?

Brandon Murphy: A bad attitude and being like Max's less-successful doppelganger mean Brandon is likely in for a world of hurt. Picking bones is not a good choice in normal high school life, and I somewhat doubt he'll be able to turn it off now.
Brandon Murphy (Billhook): That's decent, but I doubt he can wield it well. A knife would suit his frame far better.
Brandon Murphy: Pretty sure I haven't actually seen any footage of him yet.
Brandon Murphy: We're sure he was actually on the trip, yes? Somebody double checked?
Brandon Murphy: I suppose standing around watching that train wreck with Tristan and Adonis was preferable to being an active participant.
Brandon Murphy: Imagine hiding for actual days, lurking in the shadows and biding your time, waiting for that one golden opportunity, just to get shot by a bystander after a half-assed attempt at robbing Myles. I think it was better for his dignity when we couldn't remember if he was actually on the island.

Coriander Silverman: Andy's okay. Lots of pros, lots of cons. There's a scrappiness about him that should see him through trouble decently, but there's also a chance that it lands him in unnecessary peril and leads to his undoing.
Coriander Silverman (Terrarium of fire ants): Effectively, he got nothing, but he's not the sort to be doomed by it. It hurts, but not enough to drop him.
Coriander Silverman: Andy lucked out really hard meeting up with Axel right away. Having an ally who's on his wavelength, knows him inside and out, and is unlikely to screw him over does wonders for his chances to make it past at least the next few days.
Coriander Silverman: Mikki's loss will hurt Andy, for sure, but he has a decent support network to help him bear it. Right now, the biggest predictable risk he faces is Abe deciding to jack all his stuff while his back is turned.
Coriander Silverman: Andy was lucky to have support when the bad news hit. That is, more or less, the story of his game: the people he needs just keep stumbling over him. That's more than most have.
Coriander Silverman: There's real value to avoiding enmity wherever you can. Yes, it may seem harmless to antagonize the impotent, but the status quo is nothing if not transient, as Lucas has shown here. I put some of the blame on Andy's buddies letting him waltz off alone, granted—well, Abe was kind of there, but I don't think Abe and risk of any sort are on speaking terms.

Jessica Rennes: Advantages in physical arenas and the presence of some solid allies almost outweigh the naiveté. If someone can correct her attitude, she may actually be one to watch.
Jessica Rennes (Bear Trap): What's the difference between people and bears? People aren't stupid enough to step into bear traps. Even if you hide it well, you're counting on someone stepping in a very specific spot on a giant island, and the best choke points tend to have the worst opportunities to conceal this.
Jessica Rennes: That has to sting. Physically, of course, but also mentally, knowing you were outwitted by Reuben and Teresa.
Jessica Rennes: She came out of her fall in much better shape than I was expecting, but seems more than a little addled and is now somewhat dependent on a group that veers between suicidal and impotent.
Jessica Rennes: Jessica is hitching her hopes to the wrong horse. She could really do to take a note or two from her sister and approach this whole situation a bit more clinically.
Jessica Rennes: It's almost funny. I've heard that most people who survive jumping off bridges say that, in the air, they realized they'd made a horrible mistake. Fate gave Jessica a second chance, but she was all too happy to hurl herself to her doom once again.

Joanne Coleman: Joanne is a lot smarter than she lets on. She's interesting and has real potential, but not for this sort of thing. It's unfortunate, but here she's in trouble, and I don't think she's equipped to navigate it.
Joanne Coleman (George Hunter High School mascot costume): That should allow her to either summon or repel Reuben. I don't know his feelings on his role well enough to say which. I think Joanne would die before donning it herself; she has way too much style for it.
Joanne Coleman: It's roughly as I thought: she's struggled to stand out, and has come quite close to danger—in this case, Tirzah—without properly realizing her situation.
Joanne Coleman: Slow-going can be good for some and bad for others. Here, it's cost Joanne allies and supplies, and quite possibly a bit of her composure as well.
Joanne Coleman: She deserved so much better than that group and that fall. It looked pretty nasty.
Joanne Coleman: ...no comment.

Katie Agustien: Anger is not always drawback. The same is true of violence. Katie's success or failure will hinge entirely on her ability to snap at the right moments; if timing is with her, she's a real force, but if not she's doomed quickly.
Katie Agustien (The World's Sharpest Knife™): Apparently, what sets this knife apart is that it's serrated for better cooking use, which looks like it may well make it a bit less practical in combat. I don't think Katie has to worry about that, though; she's more than capable of defending herself.
Katie Agustien: You know, for a second there I thought she really was just going to run off on her own. The fact that that seemed reasonable, well, that's the thing keeping Katie out of Favored.
Katie Agustien: I'm actually starting to think that there's a pretty good chance Katie becomes key to the disintegration of her group, and not due to running off. With the turn Erika's taken, I have a pretty bad feeling someone's being set up for a fall.
Katie Agustien: Well, she found Saffron. The question is, with her driving purpose thus far taken care of, what comes next?
Katie Agustien: The romance, the betrayal, the dramatic irony... this really had it all. I wonder if Ericka figured out that Katie had met up with Ty. She was carrying that crowbar rather obviously. I wonder what she'll think when she learns that Katie spared him.

Liberty Wren: Small, suggestible, and a bit too willing to indulge her less intelligent impulses, poor Bert just does not have the makings of a real contender. Chance may favor her for a spell, but that's her best hope and that's a bad place to be.
Liberty Wren (Battery-powered drill): Like a number of the other items handed out, this is functional to cause damage less in the capacity of a weapon, and more as an implement of torture. And I don't think Bert is the torture sort.
Liberty Wren: Chasing Benny may actually end up being in her favor, but she traded a mediocre tense group for a mediocre injured one. Her best chance now is to get drafted by Henry via Camilla's walkie-talkies.
Liberty Wren: I'm still seeing some trouble ahead for this group. What is their end goal? What happens the first time they run into any sort of opposition?
Liberty Wren: With most of the initial lot now gone, it falls to us to mark down those with other crippling deficiencies. Such as, say, managing to lose all their stuff, and their allies, multiple times, while also offering absolutely nothing.
Liberty Wren: While I gave Bert a lot of grief over her myriad crippling and obvious disadvantages, MVP for this death is without a doubt Katelynne poking her head out the door and then leaving it unlocked. Isn't it great when someone else pays the price for your mistakes?

Mackenzie Baker: This is the time to lay low, be sensitive, and get selfish. Barring maybe that last one, these things are the opposite of what Mackenzie brings to the table.
Mackenzie Baker (Fencing Saber [sharpened]): As I've mentioned, a sword is often worse than a knife. Mackenzie gives me no reason to think her even theoretically proficient in either at the most basic of levels.
Mackenzie Baker: Will she learn from almost getting perforated while ineffectually trying to stop that robbery? I rather suspect the answer is no. Or at least, not enough.
Mackenzie Baker: Still the weak link, and I'm not confident she's actually taken anything from her experiences.
Mackenzie Baker: Genuine, universal trust and benevolence are not positive qualities. The ability to sleep anywhere probably is, but not when deployed without any thought.
Mackenzie Baker: See, just like I said: going to sleep wherever you happen to be isn't such a good thing after all.

Oliver Lacroix: When a troublemaker's willing to roll the dice, there's some real potential for things to get interesting. Oliver has a decent chance to flame out instantly, but if he doesn't I think he can leverage his situation better than those who'll be paralyzed by fear.
Oliver Lacroix (Butterfly Knife): It's a knife. Knives are easy to use and easy to conceal and harder than guns to hurt yourself with or accidentally unload on someone else. As long as you don't try to get cute and do tricks with this particular sort, that is.
Oliver Lacroix: Oliver is really falling to the wayside in this group of his. That isn't bad in itself, especially when measuring survival odds, but it makes me doubt whether that spark that got him this place to begin with is going to actually manifest. If he doesn't distinguish himself soon, he may drop down to join the indistinct masses.
Oliver Lacroix: Oliver has, once again, had a day of relative nothingness. In this case, however, he also managed to actively avoid opportunities to better his situation. That's not a habit to be forming just now.
Oliver Lacroix: Oliver won't find anything in Nathan and Madison. No danger, most likely, but also no lasting companionship or advantage, unless he takes the latter by force. And I don't think he will.
Oliver Lacroix: I have to say, I was wrong: what Nathan and Madison offered Oliver was not putting a bullet through his face. Still, he got a lot closer to Erika than I expected. If she'd been a second slower... but that's the advantage of knowing your way around your weapon. As to the actual kill, I think that one's going to stick around the darker corners of the internet for a long time to come.

Ramsey Cortez: On paper he looks okay, but ultimately he's a good guy without a lot of drive. To succeed despite that will be the result of circumstances or actions by others, which makes him risky to peg as anything besides average.
Ramsey Cortez (40 lb. bag of Lucky Charms marshmallows): That bag is so huge. That's the equivalent of forty large boxes of Lucky Charms. Probably more. I bet the marshmallows are the least dense part.
Ramsey Cortez: He's avoided any real danger, and his weapon at least means he won't starve. It may even win him some friends. Mr. White asked, and with what he has every single student on the island could eat a quarter pound of marshmallows. That is certainly something to think about.
Ramsey Cortez: Either Ramsey will die overnight or he won't. Unlike Reuben, I don't think his life will be in constant peril due to today's events if he pulls through, but maybe double check that with poison control.
Ramsey Cortez: I still can't entirely say whether the poison is going to finish him off, but as long as it doesn't he's found his way to the best ally he could hope for.
Ramsey Cortez: I think it really was meant as a mercy. A shame it was so merciless for those left behind.

Richard Smith: An unpleasant geek with bad physical capabilities and little to endear him to anyone. He only rises this high because those very things may push him to more directly succeed just to spite everybody else.
Richard Smith (SIG-Sauer Pistol): I find it highly possible that a good draw just encourages him to overstep and do something rash and ultimately fatal.
Richard Smith: That special brand of acerbic worked wonders in dealing with the two particular peers he found himself in contact with, but it also shows exactly why diplomacy on any grander or more consistent scale is a dicey prospect at best. I was going to say I felt better about him, but then I saw I already had him at Average, so no, I feel about the same as before.
Richard Smith: Richard has shown next to no personal development or capacity for/interest in bettering or tempering himself. It's working out for now, and if he pairs it with a level disposition when it comes to his armament, maybe it'll work out for a while longer. But all it would take to put him in serious trouble is mouthing off to somebody just a hair less controlled.
Richard Smith: Richard is just as unlikely as Oliver to gain anything of merit from the encounter I last caught track of him in, but makes up for it to some extent by not needing much of anything to begin with.
Richard Smith: The thing about Richard is, all throughout the game he proved himself more bark than bite. With many contestants, that was enough. Quinn isn't someone you can mess around with, though. When it comes to sick games, she has home field advantage.

Saffron Fields: Let's call her physical situation a draw—being down a hand will hurt, but she can probably overpower a number of the weaker kids anyways. She's usually easy enough to get along with, but someone generally nice who turns snippy can actually be more alienating than someone who's a jerk from the start.
Saffron Fields (Pool Cue): It's a stick. A well-made, pointy stick with a history of use as improvised weapon, but more for flashiness than anything practical. I think Saffron's chances are generally unaffected by it.
Saffron Fields: Saffron has latched onto a good group, which works well for her so long as she doesn't turn them against her. So far, though, she's done pretty well, and it's clear each of them is to some extent troubled in their own ways.
Saffron Fields: Quiet can be good. It's often not bad, if nothing else. But with Arizona's departure, what's next for Saffron? Does she have any more of an idea than I do?
Saffron Fields: Saffron has gained a major advantage in Katie's presence, but that does nothing to resolve her core aimlessness. In fact, absent the need to find someone important to her, I wonder whether she'll have much drive left for anything at all. Spending your very limited remaining lifespan relaxing in the arms of a loved one is a valid enough choice, but it probably shaves a few days off.
Saffron Fields: A two for one for Erika. I wonder, was Saffron an incidental target? Did Erika feel bad for laying the lovers low together, or did she tell herself she was doing them a favor by sending them off hand in hand?

Tom Swift: This guy is largely a mystery. He seems to keep to his own little group, which won't do him any favors, but it's better in most cases to be unknown than infamous. We'll see.
Tom Swift (Tactical Kama): To use this properly is probably beyond his capacities, but it's a pointy blade on a handle. It's not that complicated to get some mileage out of, and it offers utility in looking menacing.
Tom Swift: Tom has acquitted himself decently, but his emotional instability and unique manner of expressing himself has not yet convinced me he'll flourish outside the companionship of a preexisting friend.
Tom Swift: I'm really not sure what all to make of the confrontation in the aviary, but to Tom's great credit he realized when it was turning and was smart enough to immediately get out.
Tom Swift: I think Tom's total inability to filter what comes out of his mouth may actually be a diplomatic advantage. It's clear with even a moment of thought that he's not the sort to pull any cunning ploys if they require even an ounce of deception.
Tom Swift: Some people just give up. Tom wasn't one I expected it from, but when faced with a killer he has a decent relationship with... I suppose it makes sense, if you're the quitting sort?

William Dover: Call it a neutral. He can get along with people well enough to not be immediately killed, but does he have anything to offer in the long term, or any skills to see him through?
William Dover (Caffeine Pills): Those may end up a big edge later on, when everyone's running on fumes and you just really need to make it through one more day awake. Of course, whether Bill himself will be around at that point is very up for debate.
William Dover: The fatalism is not a good look, but on the other hand he managed to turn staring down an intended execution into everyone else getting messed up while he walked out free.
William Dover: One of the few things almost as useless and doomed as Drew is chasing after him trying to give his stuff back.
William Dover: I think not finding Drew is probably to his favor, but he's still cavorting aimlessly across the island waiting to get shot.
William Dover: I wonder what he thought when Nia was messing with him. I feel like he might've believed her act more than she did.

[Kermit]

[+] Announcement five

Aoi Mishima: I'm pretty sure he thinks he's far cooler than anyone else, but that just rubs people the wrong way. Being aloof isn't clever, just lazy.
Aoi Mishima (15" Wooden Paddle): That's long enough to be almost impossible to practically carry. He could break it over his knee and have two oversized pieces of trash instead of one, I suppose.
Aoi Mishima: I might have glanced at his feed, but if I did I have no memory of it whatsoever, and I'm told he's yet to be involved in anything major.
Aoi Mishima: Managing to make Garren seem vaguely tolerable is quite the accomplishment. Doing so by comparison, though...
Aoi Mishima: You know, I thought he was going to punch Garren too. Is he better for not doing so, or worse?
Aoi Mishima: I'm pretty sure the sort of arranged marriage Parker set up here is illegal in most of the civilized world.
Aoi Mishima: Aoi getting shot for opening his mouth wasn't the surprise. What was unexpected was that he said something fairly innocuous. Then again, what do they say about dental inspections for freely-offered horses?

Bret Carter: People "in the know" say Bret's the scarier, more clever Carter but that people know that means it's not true. He's like Wyatt, but without the presence and with even less awareness that everyone secretly hates him. A big name makes for nothing more than a big target in this case.
Bret Carter (Weighted Net): There's a good metaphor here: Bret's whole web of connections, thrown into the deep end, will sink straight to the bottom, tangling him and each other up on the way.
Bret Carter: See my comments for Wyatt, but add in what seems to be hearing damage. And this from the "smart" side of the pair. If the Carters really had a shred of tactical sense of self awareness, they'd be playing this like Connor is. There is nothing to be gained from confirming what everyone already believes about you, and word travels faster than they might realize.
Bret Carter: Bret seems to want to avoid actually dangerous fights, which makes his handling of the Tirzah situation nigh-inexcusable. She showed herself willing to casually kill someone on a whim, and showed interest in the Carters due to their value to her. Pushing against that to nickel-and-dime her risked her deciding to just open fire, and more than that shows her exactly what her ultimate role in the group is, increasing the odds she decides to preempt their inevitable betrayal with one of her own.
Bret Carter: Bret going out of his way to factor in Tirzah's potential unreliability as a guard only for Wyatt to wander off in the middle of the night leaving the other two helpless and asleep is a pretty good summation of the high level tactical play brought by the Carter brothers thus far.
Bret Carter: Looking back, it seems like Bret did realize what happened overnight. That just makes his relative lack of action and poor control over his brother look even worse.
Bret Carter: What's that I hear? Ah yes, the sound of vindication.

Colin McCabe: I cannot reiterate often enough how little being able to shove someone into a garbage can means if you're an unlikable asshole. The physical things can carry you for a time, but it only takes one loss and then nothing in the world but other people can save you.
Colin McCabe (1000-piece puzzle [missing 2 pieces]): Not much to say on his prospects, but wow, that is actually evil, even for these terrorists.
Colin McCabe: He managed to turn a situation that was working against him into one in his favor, which would move him up in isolation. Then he completely threw away all he gained from it, so he stays here instead.
Colin McCabe: Once again, Colin is equal parts competence and ineptitude. He drove off his prospective allies through poor framing, then won a fight cleanly, then relinquished his prize in a moment of idiocy. I am amazed more people aren't aware of just how hard it is to throw knives.
Colin McCabe: There's real value to bowing out of a fight before things go wrong. Colin had so many opportunities to walk away, but instead he allowed himself to be goaded into becoming Marco's replacement for Arjen. He best hope their paths don't cross again, or he may end up short even more appendages.
Colin McCabe: Colin isn't losing points for getting maimed—that was part of yesterday's assessment. He is instead losing points for his involvement in the debacle at the lake, and for failing to evidence having learned anything at all from his run-in with Marco.
Colin McCabe: The head counts as an appendage, doesn't it?

Dane Lennox: Being widely-reviled makes it hard enough to survive even when all your peers haven't been given weapons and told it's in their best interests to find people they're okay with killing.
Dane Lennox (Uzi-Pro): There's being hated, and then there's having a machine pistol. Dane is still in trouble in the long run, but that gun is a great argument against messing with him casually or carelessly.
Dane Lennox: Dane has actually gotten his head out of his ass to some extent, and has managed to fluke into a group chill enough to put up with him, which in turn makes them chill enough to potentially cover for him with others. It doesn't leave him in a good position, but he's not entirely doomed either.
Dane Lennox: Dane's group is decent enough, and they managed to avoid causing too much tension during an encounter with an outsider, but I can't help but notice a rather severe lack of progress towards what few tangible goals they have. Given Dane's personality, his big test will be keeping his cool despite the setbacks.
Dane Lennox: Dane is left without his group, ironically due to reasons completely beside his personality deficiencies. We've seen him capable of behaving like a human being, though, so he can keep his ranking for the moment.
Dane Lennox: Never mind those nice things I said about Dane's social prospects. He kept it in check for a time, but the old Dane nobody can stand is peeking through just enough to be a liability around a group of pissy, well-armed guys.
Dane Lennox: I'm not sure what that was, but Dane obviously did not know his way around a gun. This was a mess of a situation in every way, but the end result was what I predicted: game over for Dane.

Demetri Futscher: Demetri is a trainwreck of neurosis and offense, which goes a good way towards erasing the good his physical fitness and decent collection of acquaintances should do him. Then again, if the situation finally snaps him into reality, he stands among the best chances of shooting up in tier.
Demetri Futscher (Copy of the Communist Manifesto): They said these are random, didn't they? It doesn't mess up Demetri's chances any more than being Demetri does, at least.
Demetri Futscher: Demetri has proven both luckier and more adaptable than I credited him for. Unfortunately, that means he only made a few serious social gaffes and only almost died. He's still Demetri, and it's going to take some significant convincing to raise him above this point.
Demetri Futscher: Demetri hasn't made his lot in life much worse, and he managed to weave enough of a spell for Sakurako to forget who he is for fifteen seconds, but she failed to transform him into a prince.
Demetri Futscher: I can't help but feel like Demetri could've done a lot more, but also that he probably wouldn't have done a very good job of it.
Demetri Futscher: You know, being too pathetic to shoot at isn't the worst strategy to have in your back pocket. Especially when you're quietly not actually as pathetic as everyone thinks.
Demetri Futscher: Leave it to Demetri to manage to finally step up in the one situation guaranteed to see him dead.

Drew Woods: Putting yourself out for others is really only a particularly good idea if you're the sort of person who they'll like, which is to say not a clingy mess.
Drew Woods (Tekagi-shuko gloves): I guess he could claw at someone with them? There are worse draws, but I don't think Drew's the sort to get either the utility these are meant for or any other sort from them.
Drew Woods: Drew proves me wrong about that clingy dig I made about him by abandoning the people trying to keep him from bleeding to death. Oh, right, and he got shot.
Drew Woods: Have you noticed a running theme in Drew's interactions since getting shot? He's had to beg every person he meets, no matter how dangerous, for medical assistance. What do you think happens the first time someone says no?
Drew Woods: Drew is being held together entirely by luck and by virtue of being too pathetic to be worth killing.
Drew Woods: I really do think he's going to keel over from that wound one of these days.
Drew Woods: Really, Drew did a lot better than I expected after that early injury. And as far as rewards go, choosing the time and manner of your demise is about what can be hoped for on the island. A pity about the possible fallout, of course.

Gervais Lambotte: Pissing off the geeks is vaguely funny when they have no power, but someone's never seen a movie from the 80s. Honesty is a major weakness when it's not employed strategically.
Gervais Lambotte (Martini-Henry Rifle MkIV Pattern): It's something, I suppose, but there are so many better, more modern, easier to use guns in play and I see nothing to suggest he knows how to work with this.
Gervais Lambotte: This is a crash course for self-destruction if ever I've seen one. He's alienated everyone he encountered, and gotten himself injured to boot. If he tries to gun his way out, he will inevitably fall before too long, and if he reassess and takes a new path, he's starting at less than zero.
Gervais Lambotte: He's had some discretion knocked into him, yes, but it seems like any and all other sense had been knocked straight out, and he still has all those enemies he made.
Gervais Lambotte: I'm pretty sure he's showing evidence of rather serious brain damage. It still might be an improvement over how he acted before.
Gervais Lambotte: Whatever got shaken loose in Gervais' brain, he's clearly ailing, and at the same time a whole lot of people want him dead and he doesn't seem to have any idea who they are or why they hate him.
Gervais Lambotte: I'm going to call that repercussions from severe concussion. The Danger Zone may have been the method of execution, but he was already effectively dead.

Lucas Brady: He made a class-wide fool of himself, but at least everyone knows him. Lucas doesn't know when to stop digging the hole he's in, but aside from that he's actually got a decent amount working in his favor. I don't think anyone really strongly dislikes him, whatever he may think.
Lucas Brady (Urumi): Get ready to watch Lucas utterly destroy himself once again by messing with forces he doesn't properly understand.
Lucas Brady: Who could have imagined that being a walking joke to the entire class might be a disadvantage in this sort of situation? Oh, that's right, everyone. When Garren's making you look good, you have real issues.
Lucas Brady: Lucas displayed the personal awareness and self control he has become so renowned for, and in so doing replayed the rough sequence of events that left him the butt of the class. On the other hand, I remembered he has asthma, so there's a more objective physical reason to keep him down at the bottom too.
Lucas Brady: Lucas seems all set to cheerfully bite off more than he can chew, again and again. What makes this time different from the last half dozen?
Lucas Brady: What a turn. Lucas may be going somewhere; we've seen that sort of impotent fury work wonders for his bosom buddy Marco. I want to see how exactly it shakes out before I move him, though; right now he's mostly batting losses and draws, with his biggest win coming courtesy of luck.
Lucas Brady: If Lucas had put half that much passion and effort into anything else in his life, he could have accomplished so much. Then again, his best knack always was for self destruction.

Meilin Zhao: The party girl who doesn't like being the center of attention. Meilin lands here because she's just sort of average in a lot of ways. She could easily surprise one way or the other.
Meilin Zhao (Haladie): I rate this worse than a typical knife due to the increased opportunity for self-inflicted harm, but at least it's a knife.
Meilin Zhao: A slow start, but a decent group to go with it. Meilin is in alright shape, but I think there's a lot of room for one or two setbacks to send her whole group spiraling off in different directions.
Meilin Zhao: By this point, I feel like I'm harping on Forrest's group in much the same way whenever they come up. Let's see some results, ladies.
Meilin Zhao: Poor Meilin. And the things that have happened to her directly haven't been great either.
Meilin Zhao: Well now. There's a lot to unpack here. I'm really surprised she stuck with Ace, but I also think that ultimately this will be to her benefit. She's seen that he's fallible now, which means that if the time comes to make a hard decision, she should think twice before putting herself on the line for him.
Meilin Zhao: You were supposed to think twice, Meilin, not skip the step entirely.

Mike Brown: If he manages to get going on the right path, he may make something of himself. Everything else is decently in his favor. But oh, that "if."
Mike Brown (Air horn): This has potential use. Extremely limited potential use, but potential use nonetheless.
Mike Brown: Should've stuck with Connor. As is, all he has to show for the first day is not being dead. Which, to be fair, isn't nothing.
Mike Brown: Mike's situation is an interesting one, because he was separated from his group by Angie but is unlikely to do as well with that as she will. Mike seemed fairly settled with the others, generally on their wavelength, and Angie has showed herself very willing to abandon anyone who slows her down or puts her in jeopardy. He better hope her sentimental attachment is strong.
Mike Brown: I'm starting to worry just a bit about Mike's chances of even sticking with Angie and Ramsey. He has to know he's the third wheel.
Mike Brown: I entirely lost track of Mike after he caught up with Ramsey. That's a particularly bad thing, especially since even if he does find his way back, his meal ticket has evaporated. He was gone at the critical moment, and now someone with a much better claim to Angie's trust and affection has replaced him.
Mike Brown: This one felt like there was a whole lot of stuff I don't know about lying under the surface. That happens sometimes—can't be everywhere—but the results fell in line with the math so it's alright.

Nathan Coleman: Nathan's clear deficiencies in every aspect that would normally be advantageous on an individual level are more or less balanced by the odd way the class has chosen to unite behind him. It won't take him all the way, but he's harmless and actually well-liked, which means nobody has anything to gain by messing with him, but a whole lot to lose by drawing the ire of the rest.
Nathan Coleman (MTs225 Shotgun): If this was a handgun, I'd be bumping him down a tier on account of his being likely to shoot himself. As-is, this is more likely a hindrance than a boon, as it presents an incentive for others to rob him.
Nathan Coleman: With the shotgun out of the picture, Nathan is showing off the social dynamics that landed him here to begin with, having secured a (grudging, granted) caretaker.
Nathan Coleman: Did you notice how Nathan was the only one who didn't get a nice dose of poison? That right there is exactly why he'll likely stick around a good while. Nobody really wants to hurt him. There's nothing to gain from it, and he has no real enemies, and he's no threat to anyone in the lategame.
Nathan Coleman: Really, I think the biggest potential hazard for Nathan at this point is if he accidentally gives someone the wrong impression about Madison and him and gets her killed. I don't think many will go out of their way to hurt him, but I also don't think anyone else will put themselves on the line for him in quite the same way.
Nathan Coleman: Well, Nathan showed me another way he could get himself in trouble—on Madison's behalf—but I still just don't think anyone's going to go out of their way to hurt him.
Nathan Coleman: That was not how I expected things to end for our beloved president, but it also illustrated why he never rose above Average: put into a situation of impending danger, he was completely unaware and helpless to resist.

Nikki Nelson-Kelly: Nikki may seem a write-off on shape alone, but I think there's more to her than meets the eye. Being able to navigate social situations is a plus, and frankly she's liable to be severely underestimated by her peers for the same reason most people won't bet on her.
Nikki Nelson-Kelly (30 feet of rope): Tie someone up. Secure a door. Climb something. Okay, if you're Nikki, maybe not that last one.
Nikki Nelson-Kelly: I feel like she did what she could with a bad situation and was smart enough to get out before it got much worse. Discretion and all that, and she seems to have a good handle on managing her own processes. It does not look comfortable under that bed, though.
Nikki Nelson-Kelly: Nikki has assembled a group and has a nice little plan seemingly in the works, but to what end? Oddly, it feels like as the team grows in size, despite it being her doing, she fades somewhat. I'm not dropping her yet, but I have my eye on her.
Nikki Nelson-Kelly: Did she ever come back out of her little shelter? Did the rest of her group realize they ditched her?
Nikki Nelson-Kelly: I have no idea why Nikki's lying. I'm not even sure she knows. But the appearance of deception, especially such a transparently sketchy one, is more important than the truth that she has nothing to hide.
Nikki Nelson-Kelly: Does it count as assisted suicide if your brain shuts down to spare itself the suffering of having to perceive the stupid things you're doing?

Sal Bonaventura: In every respect, Sal is who Tristan wishes he was.
Sal Bonaventura (Non-functional collar [old model, no explosives or electronics]): This would be pure garbage in other hands, but just maybe Sal might be able to pull off some sort of bluff with it. It'll take a lot to sell it, but if anyone can...
Sal Bonaventura: He's done remarkably little, but on the other hand he's someone who can keep a low profile until the time is ripe and come out all the better for it.
Sal Bonaventura: More quiet holding-pattern stuff with his group, but for Sal that's probably a good thing. He doesn't need to go too hard now, because he's the sort to have a good chance to successfully change horses midstream if he has to as the game wears on.
Sal Bonaventura: Did he tell Manuel about Yuka? That's very, very risky. That's a betrayal of trust right there. If you whisper behind backs, you best be sure you're not overheard.
Sal Bonaventura: Letting the Hayashibaras slip away was a miscalculation. Manuel is a downgrade. I don't know, I expected a lot from Sal, but I'm starting to think the Tristan comparison was more apt than I intended.
Sal Bonaventura: Imagine spending all your time chasing someone who threw you out like a dirty sandwich bag, only to get gunned down in passing by stumbling into the middle of an attempt on their life. I overrated Sal heavily.

Yuki Hayashibara: Mm, the brains of the triplet should be in the best shape here, but I don't know that she'll do so well with being removed from her natural environment. Needs a little more foresight, a little more engagement with reality on a level beyond theoretical.
Yuki Hayashibara (Metal briefcase containing $1000 cash): Come on, that's not even that much money in normal life. Better to make it really, really excessive or to use Monopoly money or something. Half the stuff they gave other people is worth more than this. Hell, I'd invest more for the sake of a really good joke.
Yuki Hayashibara: I can't help feeling that Yuki is going to take the loss of her sister incredibly hard. I have this hunch that she has less of a support structure in place than Yuka to deal with the news, and I don't think she can channel it into motivation.
Yuki Hayashibara: Hm, I may have been a bit hasty in counting Yuki down. We'll see; if she stays at about her current level for another day or so, she can potentially edge back up.
Yuki Hayashibara: Extremely fortuitous wandering drags Yuki back into a decent place, with something to check her least productive impulses.
Yuki Hayashibara: We'll see how Yuki does with Yuka by her side. I still suspect she's fragile, but she's had a good turn of luck and that may make the difference.
Yuki Hayashibara: It felt like all the momentum and direction sapped straight out of her when she linked up with her sister. Ultimately, Yuki didn't have any real plans beyond sticking to those she cared about and hoping they stayed safe—a foolish dream in a game designed to destroy bonds and deny safety.

[Kermit]

[+] announcement six

Adele Jones: In decent shape, with a wide circle of friends, and a good heart. Really, only that last part can drag her down, and it'll take long enough to do so that she may well realize her error before it's too late.
Adele Jones (Small shopping cart): This wouldn't be great if the game were set in a mall. On an island, with lots of uneven terrain, it'll likely be a major pain in the neck to lug around. There might be an argument for doing so anyways, but eh... I wouldn't. Not enough to tank her chances, though, not so early.
Adele Jones: She's got a nice group assembled, so long as they get over themselves a little, stop antagonizing random passers-by, and drop the fantasy of magicking their ways out of the game.
Adele Jones: Her group seems like it's going to pieces, but Adele has kept a low enough profile to survive unscathed. If it does fall apart, she's likely even better off without the half-baked promise of vague escape.
Adele Jones: Well, they've finally bled off everyone useless or detrimental. Time to see what they really have to show for themselves.
Adele Jones: That's it. I'm eating my words on this one. Ultimately, this group has failed to live up to its potential, and they're so far committed now that it'll be a surprise indeed if they manage to recover.
Adele Jones: Okay, maybe Adele was the one holding the group back? I have no idea how that could've been the case, but since her departure they've managed to come together a little bit and merge with the remnants of another decent group, while Adele has only accomplished... oh, that's right: literally nothing.
Adele Jones: It seems really fitting that, having escaped the rolling disaster that her group became, Adele still managed to come back and die with them for no reason at all.

Aditi Sharma: Aditi puts on a good show, but it doesn't ring true—I think it's not hard to see in her recent snippiness that she cares about number one first and foremost. The thing is, most of the class is too unimaginative to realize, and much of the rest is too nice to do anything with the information, leaving what should be a weakness evidence of real promise.
Aditi Sharma (Browning Hi Power 9mm): A good draw in the right hands. I don't think it guarantees her success, but it gives her a better shot than average, that's for sure.
Aditi Sharma: Looking at it, I've rated each member of this group pretty well on individual levels (Cheridene doesn't count). As a collective, however, I feel like they're less than the sum of their parts, mostly due to the poor-form approach to their ostensible goal of escaping. If they can drop that mentality, though, they're one of the biggest forces to be reckoned with.
Aditi Sharma: Aditi's decision to let her fists (and then gun) talk took me off-guard, but may be just the impetus needed to kick her alliance a step towards living up to their promise, or else to shatter it so something better can take its place.
Aditi Sharma: Aditi made some miscalculations regarding custody of her gun, and her jam-tomorrow approach to planning may be starting to wear thin with her remaining allies, but with all distractions and hindrances out of the way I think this is also her chance to truly step up.
Aditi Sharma: That's the plan? That's what it all comes down to? All those days mucking about for that? I'm more disappointed than I should be.
Aditi Sharma: When I said the whole group might be killed by one of Aditi's schemes, the other implicit part of that was that Aditi herself is the most likely to perish for them.
Aditi Sharma: I can't say for sure what she intended, but a flaw that might have been worth considering: breaking cameras is against the rules, punishable by death. That house she lit on fire? Full of cameras.

Apollonia Karahalios: Nia's tendencies, which make her pretty interesting in normal life, are very likely to land her in hot water in her new situation. Putting aside the significant communication difficulties she will face, she tends towards an overly-detached perspective that I find more likely to result in poor motivation than helpful indifference to the fates of others.
Apollonia Karahalios (Bad Dragon Dildo): If Nia has ever thought about sex in a fashion that couldn't be described as "clinical" I would be very surprised indeed. However, that does nothing to change the fact that this does leave her quite fucked.
Apollonia Karahalios: Nia displayed some very good initiative and opportunism in securing a weapon and a pair of allies, one fiercely loyal and the other incredibly dependent. I'm impressed.
Apollonia Karahalios: Nia has lost some stock as Alexander gained it, but not enough to knock her down a tier. Jeremiah really was a major asset for her, and not just on a physical level; she'll have a much harder time communicating now, and he was clearly good for her mental state. But she did alright before she met him. Maybe she'll do alright still.
Apollonia Karahalios: Nia has now lost everything and everyone. She's always held herself as a little bit cold and aside from humanity. Well, now she gets to embrace that or crumble.
Apollonia Karahalios: I hope that Nia has learned from her adventure with Michael not to play at a role she's unsuited for. Will posed no threat and offered no resistance. He was a freebie, especially since I don't think anyone's coming calling on his account. She should take that and think very hard about her path from this point on.
Apollonia Karahalios: Well, Nia has taken another opportunity to get rid of somebody nobody will miss. Her decision not to double up with Garren could be a tactical one—it's easier to spin one kill as self defense than two, certainly—but let us not forget that despite the murder, she came out of this encounter worse off in terms of resources. She's not playing the canny game she might think she is.
Apollonia Karahalios: I said it from the start: Nia was not actually who she was so keen on pretending to be. Looking back, she so rarely acted quickly. When put under pressure, she wasn't able to break away from her natural inclinations, and in this instance it cost her everything.

Camille Bellegarde: Camille can be clever, and she's unafraid to go where others shiver to tread, but she's a little too willing to go looking under rocks that don't need turning, and her taste in companions isn't as good as she thinks it.
Camille Bellegarde (Beretta M12): At a glance, I like the potential here. Not quite enough to go in on it and change her ranking, though.
Camille Bellegarde: Camille remains a quiet unknown, peripherally involved with more active figures but yet to distinguish herself for good or ill.
Camille Bellegarde: Still quietly cruising under the radar, Camille is at a point now where I think her fate will be determined to a large extent by chance. Given space and opportunity to blossom, she may live quite a while, but if pressed or attacked I can see her crumbling.
Camille Bellegarde: Well, they've got the part where they sit around being as boring as possible until they die down. Now to see if they can actually lure others. Maybe they can steal Drew from Ty to really make a party of it.
Camille Bellegarde: The more time passes without progress, the worse things look for a group following a plan that's out and out terrible. And that's not touching the suicide they're going to hear about when the announcements go off.
Camille Bellegarde: What's worse than being in a stagnant group? Getting ditched and being stagnant alone, then going off to find some other loser to stagnate with.
Camille Bellegarde: That's certainly one way to reunite. I would say that Camille saw greater posthumous influence, but Lucas knows his time's limited I suppose, so really why wait until the ground is cool?

Charelle Chernyshyova: Charelle doesn't seem to have an ambitious bone in her body, and her closest potential allies aren't the sort to bring too much value to a group. I think she's a weaker link than Forrest, which is saying something since both her arms work.
Charelle Chernyshyova (Brass Knuckles): These are hard to go too wrong with, but I can't imagine Charelle going too right with them either. Somehow, I just don't see her as a brawler sort.
Charelle Chernyshyova: She weathered the storm, sure, but what did she do to make that happen? Nothing but get lucky. And what does she have to show for it? Nothing but Demetri.
Charelle Chernyshyova: A holding pattern actually isn't the worst thing in the world for Charelle, but I'm just not sure what the endgame is for her and Demetri, and I actually feel like being bound to Demetri is worse in this one instance than being Demetri is.
Charelle Chernyshyova: I actually needed a reminder where Charelle got to, she did such a good job impersonating the wallpaper. I suppose someone has to carry on Cheridene's legacy.
Charelle Chernyshyova: I think even Charelle forgot she's still alive.
Charelle Chernyshyova: Why is Charelle so far down compared to her allies? Quite simply, because she's the odd one out, the fifth wheel, the member who doesn't seem to be contributing much of anything. If the time comes when hard choices need to be made, I don't think she's going to be anybody's first priority. Or second.
Charelle Chernyshyova: If you close your eyes, you can almost imagine that Aditi forgot there was anyone inside when she lit the fire.

Emeka Gibson: Meka is just too passionate to be reliable. He's got a strong sense of how the world should be, but he brings that into everything and that's enough to counterbalance intelligence and charisma.
Emeka Gibson (Broken Hunting Bow): Meka's not the sort of person who can afford to be armed with only actual trash. He is the sort of person who might be able to wrangle an upgrade. If he doesn't, he'll likely drop.
Emeka Gibson: Meka makes up for his poor draw and potential social issues by being the second most invisible member of a comparatively-invisible group. It doesn't make for great viewing for me, but that usually means better things for him.
Emeka Gibson: Absolutely nothing about what I said about Meka yesterday has changed.
Emeka Gibson: I'm really curious to see how Meka reacts when he realizes he's been ditched by the one member of his group who didn't get murdered. That said, Mackenzie is probably an upgrade from Rhonda in terms of human shields because she has a much louder presence, making for easier justification for stabbing her instead of Meka.
Emeka Gibson: While I was tempted to dock Meka for letting Justin get away with that, I trust that he has learned a thing or two and will be approaching future encounters with a bit more skepticism. And honestly, losing Mackenzie may work to his ultimate advantage.
Emeka Gibson: The demotion comes for Meka at last. While his heart seems in the right place, probably, he just has not shown himself to have any sort of plan to make anything actually happen. And dancing uncertainly with potential killers time and again has not helped his prospects.
Emeka Gibson: This is what happens when you're too trusting. How many times have we been reminded about poison and drugs? How often has Meka run into trouble due to giving killers the benefit of the doubt? Mistakes are only helpful if you learn something from them.

Jackson Sullivan: Surly and prickly, Jackson could find his temper working to his advantage or against it. Personally, I think we'll see it to do both. He can keep it under control to a point, but I don't expect that to hold up in a high-pressure situation.
Jackson Sullivan (AED Machine): Possible draws really didn't play much of a role in my judgment of Jackson's potential, and that holds true still.
Jackson Sullivan: Jackson's done pretty well, actually. Proactive, involved, and he kept enough of a handle on his more problematic mannerisms to avoid getting into terrible trouble. I'm feeling a bump upwards if nothing goes horribly wrong tomorrow.
Jackson Sullivan: As promised, Jackson moves up for another day of solid performance. He's not slick, that's for sure, but he's more effective than I think others credit him for, even in social situations.
Jackson Sullivan: All quiet, but can that be anything but a good thing? What Jackson needs to do now is hunker down and let his group ride it into the midgame. With their makeup and equipment, they'll be a force to be reckoned with.
Jackson Sullivan: Tch tch, I really wanted a bit more not-letting-Ariana-get-chopped-up. While their group has taken some knocks, though, it's still well-armed, made up of strong personalities, and hopefully suitably reality-checked by this point.
Jackson Sullivan: Alright, let's see some progress. The pieces are lined up, the plan is set, so now it's all about execution.
Jackson Sullivan: Wrong place, wrong time. I had high hopes for Jackson, but we saw a whole bunch of high-value pieces come into conflict at once, cutting short a lot of potential that might've played out otherwise.

Johnny Silva Ruiz: Physical capabilities may be important at the start and the end, but no man is an island and a short temper coupled with a sharp tongue will get Johnny into trouble almost inevitably. Once it starts, I expect his problems to cascade and multiply, but he's also the sort to have at least a little experience with such things.
Johnny Silva Ruiz (Bryan Calvert's SPAS-12 Shotgun): This gives Johnny a whole lot of bite to back up his bark. He's still likely looking at major personal trouble, but the draw changes the prospective fallout quite a bit.
Johnny Silva Ruiz: Using your firepower to mouth off to and chase off literally everyone you meet actually isn't the worst strategy when you have precious little to offer a group besides your gear. He's also shown more self control than I gave him credit for.
Johnny Silva Ruiz: Pushing everyone away is a very good way to make sure you're not getting played. Johnny doesn't really need allies, and he's dissuaded several potential foes without making it personal or escalating the danger.
Johnny Silva Ruiz: I've been praising Johnny's ability to cut ties with everyone he meets, but we've now seen the first cracks in that facade. It was harmless this time, but we'll see how things go next time a stranger crosses his path.
Johnny Silva Ruiz: Johnny's temper is getting shorter as his interactions become more substantial. Neither of those are positive trends, but to be fair he is being faced with an incredibly aggravating cohort. I'll decide whether to drop him once there's more control data.
Johnny Silva Ruiz: Johnny finally loses control and escalates the situation. Of course it would have to come at the one moment he can least afford it.
Johnny Silva Ruiz: In hindsight, Johnny should've been marked down further for that injury and the display of rashness under pressure. This was the exact same pattern—faced with a threat, he escalated while having the worse hand.

Lorenzo Tavares: Lorenzo knows his way around a fight, knows his way around probably a quarter of the boys in school, and has a knack for getting into trouble matched only by his knack for getting back out of it without being too much the worse for wear. Inexplicably liked by people who should hate him, and not fake-liked like the Carters.
Lorenzo Tavares (Splitting Maul): Useful, simple, and fairly portable, the only way this won't be an asset is if Lorenzo overshoots and kneecaps himself with it.
Lorenzo Tavares: The only reason Lorenzo hasn't shot straight to the bottom tier is that his secret's spread is obviously fairly limited, given that I didn't know about it before Ty outed him. He'll stay around a while, but he's not coming home. Don't put money on him as winner.
Lorenzo Tavares: Now with a kill to his name, even more people antagonized, and little gain to show for it, Lorenzo will have a very hard time pulling out of his death spiral. All the same, I think he can hold it back for longer than he has any right to.
Lorenzo Tavares: Lorenzo slips once again. It turned out better for him than it should've, because Emil was a top tier moron, but Lorenzo knew about the tracker. That means he should've known Emil could be aware of his presence and plotting an ambush. One wrinkle—a gun borrowed or liberated from Demetri, say—and Lorenzo would be dead. I hope he realizes that and gives it a little thought.
Lorenzo Tavares: Diego is actually an incredible pickup. I hope Lorenzo realizes that and was bluffing to keep him on edge. He just has to watch his back, because I think Diego wants to go all the way.
Lorenzo Tavares: I really do think discarding Diego is a major misstep, one that will come back to bite him. Not quickly enough to drop him down the rankings, not yet, but it's brewing. Especially with so many people, some of them quite dangerous, out for his head. He's alone again, and probably for good this time.
Lorenzo Tavares: This is perhaps the least unexpected upset we've seen so far. Lorenzo had a lot of factors working in his favor, but they were contingent upon his not running into the half-dozen or so dangerous, driven individuals out for his blood. If he'd made better use of the tracker, he might've pulled it off... but tactics never were his strong suit.

Marcus Volker: Marco is the sort to do something crazy—maybe even to become something crazy. The material factors for and against him matter much less here than his overall elemental nature, and that's one that will make a splash.
Marcus Volker (Amaranta Montalvo’s M4 Carbine Rifle): He probably won't be able to wrangle that gun, but it certainly isn't going to hurt his chances that badly.
Marcus Volker: I'm not bumping Marco down. Yes, he's been beaten and partially-blinded, but you know what? He's always been more than a little crazy, and until he's buried in the ground he's going to be someone to watch. I think, if anything, he's just going to become less predictable due to this, and if his capacity to inflict damage is restored he may well crack some skulls.
Marcus Volker: Marco is becoming ever-more unhinged, but I think that's just what will get him shaking the tree. Watch him closely over the next few days; he's already starting to lash out even at those not directly involved in his woes.
Marcus Volker: The disintegration is beginning. He'll carve a path of destruction, no doubt about it, but will it be ruin for those in his way, or just for himself?
Marcus Volker: A catastrophic meltdown and hideously violent end feels almost inevitable by now, but so too does that not manifesting for a few days. He has to be riding high to some degree from what happened with Ariana, even if it's unlikely to last. Especially when he sits down to rest.
Marcus Volker: Marco took a lot of knocks putting Colin down. Coming out of it with a solid ally is an unexpected boon, especially for someone who seemed pretty unlikely to make lasting partnerships due to his trajectory, but will it be enough? How many more of these pyrrhic duels does he have in him? My money's on at least a couple.
Marcus Volker: Well, that was indeed a couple more pyrrhic duels. In much shorter succession than I'd expected, unfortunately.

Quinn Abert: On the one hand, being on the basketball team puts her in good company. On the other, she's the weird one who doesn't fit in, and she's a largely-unknown factor. Not a very good poet, for what that's worth.
Quinn Abert (Bullwhip): I don't know enough about Quinn to say that she's not secretly a cowboy or Indiana Jones, so let's just call those things statistically improbable.
Quinn Abert: Now here's something interesting, and a great argument for not writing off unknown quantities. Quinn is going harder than anyone else, in my book, and I think that if nothing else that momentum will keep her rolling for some time.
Quinn Abert: Quinn has not let up the gas. I have to say, I'm really disappointed I didn't get to know her any better, because this is making me imagine she must be just fascinating to really talk to. She'll inevitably crash and burn before the end, but sheer violence and determination should take her a good ways farther.
Quinn Abert: Lots to discuss here. Quinn's spree of violence today ultimately means safety for her in the short term and danger in the long. I'm pretty sure even Quinn knows she won't be coming home. That's liberating and empowering, and fighting her now is a losing proposition, but as the field narrows and other become more dangerous she will eventually be too big a factor to let go unchecked, and someone more focused and efficient will put her down.
Quinn Abert: I'm rather torn on the prospect of Quinn with a gun. More tools in her arsenal isn't a bad thing, but she's already getting confident and is the biggest threat in play. If she gets too ambitious, it could easily turn on her.
Quinn Abert: A glance at the kill sheets doesn't tell the full story here. True, Quinn failed to put an end to Michael, but she showed a few new cards in her hand, and took a shot at scoring her point in alternate ways when they didn't pan out. If anything, a slower spell and Erika's ascension may just lull the others into a false sense of security.
Quinn Abert: This one is less about Quinn and what she did, and much more about a particularly savvy plan and execution on the part of Jonah and Arizona. As the field narrows, these meetings of notable forces will become more frequent, and she will by no means be the last major figure we lose abruptly.

Roxie Borowski: Her clear lack of comfort sitting idle may be a drawback in some niche situations, but generally those who do nothing temporarily are those who most easily slide into making it a permanent habit. She lands here due to a good attitude combined with just something hard to describe about her.
Roxie Borowski (Ceramic pot w/ trellis containing a poison ivy plant): Hey, no fair. How come Ivy gets a clone backup?
Roxie Borowski: She's done alright so far. Savvy handling of the Nona situation, generally decent job avoiding getting dragged into the muck with Layla and Paloma. I'm feeling her still, though with a bit of inexplicable doubt creeping in.
Roxie Borowski: Roxie, Roxie, what was that? Letting Kayla wander off unattended? I know you're into horror media. This should be your wakeup call.
Roxie Borowski: I lost track of her a little, but at least she's in better shape than Kayla right now.
Roxie Borowski: A quiet stretch and energy wasted on a funeral leave Roxie, if not in a terrible position, at least a good candidate for the equalizing hand.
Roxie Borowski: Roxie lands a good group, but I don't know that she quite understands what she's getting herself into, and I think she too may end up suckered by Willow.
Roxie Borowski: All you had to do was stay off to the side. You were the one person nobody in either group seemed to have any issue with, but those are the perils of trying to help.

Sven Vee: Wildcard. This guy has obvious problems, but are they enough to make him amount to anything? His physical detriments will probably keep him from going too far, but there's room for surprises.
Sven Vee (Plastic Lightsaber): He looks a little like Mark Hamill, actually, after that car crash that led to the medical tank scene. But a bad pull hurts someone with few options to begin with more than it would others.
Sven Vee: The tranquil, tide-this-out strategy is a pretty good look for him, I have to say. Whether or not it's enough, or he can maintain it, that's an entirely different matter.
Sven Vee: Sven may actually be onto something in being such a low-threat nonentity that the dangerous people around him don't even bother him as they hack each other to pieces. Eventually he'll have to deal with someone directly, though, and I can't see any tools he has to manage that.
Sven Vee: "There are worse ways to get shot," huh? Well, there are also better ways to avoid getting shot.
Sven Vee: You know, he's a little trickier than I expected. I don't think there's any end goal in mind, of course.
Sven Vee: All the weird ramblings in the world don't mask the lack of a plan for survival—or even any apparent interest in it.
Sven Vee: Drifting on your own keeps you safe from others, yes, but it makes it much more difficult for you to stay protected from yourself.

Tanisha Abbey: Tanisha could be more, but she's too loud, too center-stage, and without the right temperament to play off that when the stakes are high. If she makes it through the early stages, she has real potential to adapt, but that's a real "if."
Tanisha Abbey (Sawed-off Browning A-5 Shotgun): It's a solid draw, but something about Tanisha makes me think she'll be too eager to use it as a prop instead of a tool. The difference can be subtle, but also fatal.
Tanisha Abbey: Tanisha has found herself in a solid group, but I can't shake the feeling that everything about their chances hinges upon Jeff, and I think he's also the one least devoted to the good of the collective. If a break comes and she goes with him, she goes up. If she picks Cammy, she goes down.
Tanisha Abbey: Losing Cammy helps. Losing Jeff hurts. Ned isn't really an upgrade or a replacement, and I sort of want to see her fire that gun soon just so I can be sure she'll be able to keep control of it if she ever has to do more than bluff. She could have ended the confrontation with Lorenzo before anyone got hurt if she wanted to, so either she didn't want to or she didn't realize or trust the power she held.
Tanisha Abbey: More aimless rambling, more doubts as to whether Tanisha will be able to do anything at all when the chips are down. Can she make this group last a little better than the previous one?
Tanisha Abbey: Tanisha has accomplished nothing and has constantly called her own abilities into doubt. At this stage of the game, that means she's moving down.
Tanisha Abbey: I think that Tanisha would have died days ago if she didn't have a weapon that gives others pause. At this stage, however, weapons count for less and less, as it becomes ever more clear that some simply do not have the will to bring them into play.
Tanisha Abbey: You know what? Tanisha did a hell of a lot better for herself than I expected given her track record. Yes, she's dead, but she made a mark on Erika. Respectable.

Tony Acardi: If he doesn't go off at a totally terrible time in the first day or two, he probably deserves a bump up a slot. The odds of that strike me as low, though.
Tony Acardi (Compact Camping Tent for One): If only this were bigger, he might have a chance to make friends. As it stands, using this will just be making an obvious target of himself. The smart play would be to set it up as bait, but I do not think that's Tony's style at all. Might be good for a trade.
Tony Acardi: Tony's group is about to get a rude awakening, and he's managed to be less successful than both Michael and Aliya. If Justin flips his shit again, Tony seems most likely to come into the immediate line of fire.
Tony Acardi: Well, Justin's shit-flipping didn't get on Tony. He has that going for him. That, and precious little else.
Tony Acardi: The thing about the Paloma throwdown most astonishing to me is just how hellbent everyone involved seems to be on working against their truest allies and their own best interests.
Tony Acardi: Ouch. I don't think he's walking that off. Even if he does, it's not the sort of thing you come back from in the long run.
Tony Acardi: He has trouble moving, the hole in his chest is patched up with gauze and prayers, and he still doesn't have a plan. Dead man walking.
Tony Acardi: Whoops, never mind what I said about roommates, plural, when discussing Catherine. The inevitable finally arrives.

Wyatt Carter: On the one hand, everyone knows Wyatt, but on the other, even his friends secretly hate him and he's too stupid to realize it. He lasts as long as it takes everyone to figure out that they don't have to pretend anymore, plus a little bit longer because he's got the luck and bull-headedness. He'll be hyped, he may seem to live up to it, but it won't take him all the way.
Wyatt Carter (Alligator Tooth Sword): A melee weapon might seem to play to his strengths, but it also encourages his bad tendencies, and I'm actually not convinced it really raises his destructive potential that much. Wyatt was already going to be a force in close quarters.
Wyatt Carter: Did you catch the part where the Carters picked a risky and ultimately low-value fight and then managed to forget to take the ammunition to their pilfered gun? That is why they are overvalued. No ability to turn it off, and prone to sloppiness born of arrogance.
Wyatt Carter: He's very lucky to have shrugged off that eye gouge. Still, you know you're in trouble when Tirzah is the most reasonable and lucid member of your party.
Wyatt Carter: More of the same: arrogance, lacking empathy, and not an ounce of self awareness. He's very lucky not to have faced any particularly meaningful challenges so far.
Wyatt Carter: Speaking of liabilities, what was that? Jeff is one of the tiny handful of people who might've given the Carters the benefit of the doubt. Now he's alienated too.
Wyatt Carter: The loss of Bret shakes things up, but to what end remains to be seen. In a sense, Wyatt is unleashed, with nobody to hold back his more violent impulses. But will he maul an intruder, or run into the street chasing cars?
Wyatt Carter: Bark, bark, screech, thud, whimper, whimper, bang.

[Kermit]

oh shoot more kermit stats oh nooooooooo

aight here's how much disk space the data files I use to make character bots take up on my computer. Note that, generally, taking up more space is less indicative of like, high word count, and more indicative of being in l e n g t h y high-activity threads. The data includes pregame / meanwhiles, and includes everything in a character's respective threads between their entry and exit posts (meaning it also includes the posts of other characters).

for example, the data for

[+] this here spoilered hypothetical thread

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
Weather in Month
#1Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:53 pm
ZIER, CATHERINE
G057
DECEASED

User avatarKermit
Posts: 1324
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Location: Don't worry about it
Contact: Contact Kermit
#2Post by Kermit » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:16 pm
((continued from the party of the century.))

Mikey pointed and laughed at Catherine's corpse, and then he did a fortnite dance or something I guess?

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
#3Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:33 pm
A lobster burst out of Catherine's chest and scuttled away.

Finally after all of her travels on the island, ((she had reached her final destination.))

User avatarKermit
Posts: 1324
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Location: Don't worry about it
Contact: Contact Kermit
#4Post by Kermit » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:26 pm
"Damn homie that's pretty fucked up," Mikey said.

((then he left))

[+] would look like this in catherines data file

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
Sleet in June
#1Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:53 pm
ZIER, CATHERINE
G057
DECEASED

User avatarKermit
Posts: 1324
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Location: Don't worry about it
Contact: Contact Kermit
#2Post by Kermit » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:16 pm
((continued from the party of the century.))

Mikey pointed and laughed at Catherine's corpse, and then he did a fortnite dance or something I guess?

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
#3Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:33 pm
A lobster burst out of Catherine's chest and scuttled away.

Finally after all of her travels on the island, ((she had reached her final destination.))

[+] and not like this

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
Sleet in June
#1Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 7:53 pm
ZIER, CATHERINE
G057
DECEASED

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
#3Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:33 pm
A lobster burst out of Catherine's chest and scuttled away.

Finally after all of her travels on the island, ((she had reached her final destination.))

[+] and also for even further clarification it would look like this in mikeys data file

User avatarKermit
Posts: 1324
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Location: Don't worry about it
Contact: Contact Kermit
#2Post by Kermit » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:16 pm
((continued from the party of the century.))

Mikey pointed and laughed at Catherine's corpse, and then he did a fortnite dance or something I guess?

User avatarMelusine
Posts: 582
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Contact: Contact Melusine
#3Post by Melusine » Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:33 pm
A lobster burst out of Catherine's chest and scuttled away.

Finally after all of her travels on the island, ((she had reached her final destination.))

User avatarKermit
Posts: 1324
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Location: Don't worry about it
Contact: Contact Kermit
#4Post by Kermit » Sun Feb 02, 2020 10:26 pm
"Damn homie that's pretty fucked up," Mikey said.

((then he left))

okay with no further adieu

[+] the COMPLETED LIST

17,436 KB - All of v7 island as of March 30th
11,397 KB - All of v7 Pregame
6,596 KB - All of v1 island
5,006 KB - All of v2 island
2,035 KB - Ace Ortega
2,032 KB - Blarl d'Aramitz
1,789 KB - Ivy Langley
1,666 KB - Erika Stieglitz
1,475 KB - mike frog
1,352 KB - Connor Lorenzen
1,336 KB - Tyrell Lahti
1,296 KB - Myles Roux
1,188 KB - Darlene Silva / Blaise without zalgotext
1,168 KB - Marco Hart
1,082 KB - Marceline Carlson
1,080 KB - Morgan Dragosavich
1,074 KB - Emmett Bunnell
1,055 KB - Wyatt Carter
1,052 KB - Nick Ogilvie
1,050 KB - Aurelien Valter
1,032 KB - Lucas Diaz
1,018 KB - Violet Schmidt
1,017 KB - Willow O'Neal
1,004 KB - K8
989 KB - Lorenzo Tavares
988 KB - Garren Mortimer
987 KB - Diego Larrosa
982 KB - Parker Green
979 KB - Julien Leblanc
966 KB - Claudeson Bademosi
938 KB - Marco Volker / Juliette Sargent
933 KB - Abe Watanabe
892 KB - Axel Fontaine / Henry Sparks
888 KB - Kelly Nguyen
871 KB - Sakurako Jackson
868 KB - Princess McQuillan
867 KB - Camilla Bell
863 KB - Declyn Grayson-Anthis
861 KB - Faith Marshall-Mackenzie
848 KB - Max Rudolph
831 KB - Demetri Futscher
813 KB - Lucas Abernathy
797 KB - Forrest Quin
780 KB - Jonathan Meyers
772 KB - Nia Karahalios
768 KB - Sierra Cook
748 KB - Justin Greene
747 KB - Katrina Lavell
746 KB - Cecil Salazar-Loveless
708 KB - Adonis Cohen
707 KB - Jonah Heartgrave
704 KB - Teresa Rojas
703 KB - Roxanne Herbert
697 KB - Amelia Fischer
695 KB - Ariana Moretti
688 KB - Matthew Hunt
686 KB - Arizona Butler
671 KB - Thomas Buckley
664 KB - Beryl Mahelona
656 KB - Hansel Williams of version 5
650 KB - Jackson Sullivan
639 KB - Zachary Beck
638 KB - Coriander Silverman
619 KB - Yuka Hayashibara
598 KB - Sean Leibowitz
592 KB - Tanisha Abbey
585 KB - Blaise's death thread
571 KB - Hel Fury
563 KB - Lori Martin
558 KB - Jeff Greene
547 KB - Garnet Barnes (so far)
543 KB - Though We May Not Survive It (the big v1 river thread that has a word count more than twice that of Catcher in the Rye)
537 KB - Meilin Zhou
520 KB - Paloma Salt
488 KB - Bret Carter
483 KB - Angie Cortez
477 KB - Valerija Bogdanovic
475 KB - Dante Luciano Valerio
472 KB - Daria Bhatia
458 KB - Camille Bellegarde
454 KB - Quinn Abert
451 KB - Camila Canizares / Phillip Olivares
446 KB - Bert Wren
444 KB - Regina Petrov
426 KB - Christina Rennes
425 KB - Lizzie Lebowski
422 KB - Dolly Upton
414 KB - Tonya Collins
407 KB - Drew Woods / Desiree Beck
394 KB - Lucas Brady / Charelle Chernyshyova
391 KB - Meka Gibson
390 KB - Mikki Swift / Aliya Kimia Nemati
387 KB - Amber Yates
384 KB - Sven Vee
382 KB - Alexander Brooke
380 KB - Joanne Coleman / Tirzah Foss
379 KB - Abel Zelenovic
372 KB - Johnny Silva Ruiz
364 KB - Madison Springer
358 KB - Catherine Zier
354 KB - Shauna Cooke
348 KB - Stepney Cruz
340 KB - Tristan O'Hara
335 KB - Kayla Harris
329 KB - Mackenzie Baker
316 KB - Katie Agustien
314 KB - Stephanie McDonald
308 KB - Ned Jackson
306 KB - Yuki Hayashibara
305 KB - Mike Brown
303 KB - Ashlynn Martinek
295 KB - Emil Van Zandt III
290 KB - Caroline Ford / Theo Walterson
275 KB - Roxie Borowski
273 KB - Billy Trevino
261 KB - Colin McCabe
256 KB - Reuben Walters
254 KB - Saffron Fields
250 KB - Aditi Sharma
248 KB - Arjen Kramer
246 KB - Bree Jones
244 KB - Mercy Ames / Megan Summers
230 KB - Tony Acardi
224 KB - Nathan Coleman
222 KB - Nikki Nelson-Kelly
221 KB - Ramsey Cortez
211 KB - Cheridene Williams
206 KB - Kyle Harrison
205 KB - Jessica Rennes
204 KB - Adele Jones
193 KB - Jeremiah Anderson
190 KB - Ron Kiser / Oliver Lacroix
186 KB - Dane Lennox / Rhonda Lawson
181 KB - Richard Smith / Manuel Figueroa
179 KB - Blake Davis
168 KB - Toby Underwood
167 KB - Gervais Frans Lambotte
165 KB - Violet Quinn
164 KB - Bryan Merryweather
157 KB - Yuko Hayashibara
129 KB - Sal Bonaventura
123 KB - Sapphire Waters
122 KB - Benedict Murray
121 KB - Tom Swift
120 KB - Cammy Walker-Grimsley
112 KB - Danny Chamnamna
111 KB - Ivy Langley's zalgopost
100 KB - Layla DeBerg / Terra Johnson
98 KB - Felix Rees / Aoi Mishima
93 KB - Bill Dover
73 KB - Brandon Murphy / Christine Bright
41 KB - Clayton Barber

[Kermit]

[+] Announcement 7 Alton stuff

Adonis Cohen: The Greek God needs to figure out how to tell when people are messing with him, and how to take a stand for himself. Otherwise, all the athletics in the world will do him little good.
Adonis Cohen (Binder containing the student roster [names, numbers & assigned weapons]): This is a great draw that I'm entirely unsure Adonis can actually make good use of. If he displays some awareness, he'll rocket up the rankings, but if he writes it off he's stuck at his base potential.
Adonis Cohen: Adonis is proving my skepticism correct so far, but is also being kept safe by useful idiot syndrome. As long as he's incapable of telling when he's being misled, he's better alive than dead for the people he'll gladly throw himself into peril to protect.
Adonis Cohen: On the one hand, Adonis' decision to risk his own life in an effort to save the attempted murderer of his ally and her own would-be rescuer was the height of foolish martyrdom. On the other, it shows exactly why nobody should bother killing him; he'll sort himself out, especially because I'm pretty sure he means all the garbage he says.
Adonis Cohen: Oh, where to start? Obviously, killing Tristan was a huge fuck up. It may lead others to the mistaken conclusion that Adonis doesn't have the emotional resilience of a wet paper bag, but it also may trick them into thinking he has meaningful capacity for intentional violence, and thus is worth the time to shoot.
Adonis Cohen: Well, he did a decent job handling the hostage exchange for Myles. With the sort of game he's had until this point, that's a sign of progress.
Adonis Cohen: Well now, that was a shift. Always the nice ones, mm? But in all honesty, whatever he claims, I think Adonis has latched onto a new identity that was offered by someone he trusts and that lets him square his past actions more than he is embracing what was truly inside the whole time. Will it last if he's ever separated from Marco for long? Very hard to say. He gets points for greater proactivity, but loses them for becoming a target and for extremely uncertain prospects for the future.
Adonis Cohen: We'll see how this goes, but I'm already seeing the cracks. I somewhat expect Adonis to cave under the influence of Declyn and entirely revert to his previous form... but given what he's done and who he's been hanging around, I don't think the factors that kept him safe at the start of the game will hold true for him anymore.
Adonis Cohen: In the end, I think Adonis was always first and foremost the person he thought those around him wanted or needed him to be. He let himself be cast as the villain once again, but he never had Marco's knack for handling groups.

Amber Yates: One of the cheerleaders without the baggage of the collective, Amber has a measure of fitness and sociability that give her potential. On the other hand, she also lacks some of the drive and presence of her squadmates, leaving her a little harder to predict.
Amber Yates (Cat-o-nine-tails): It's much better than a whip, because it takes very little skill to use comparatively. It's much worse than a more lethal or obviously-dangerous weapon, providing little utility and coming up short in actual stopping power.
Amber Yates: I was wincing my way through every time she opened her mouth, and that's without bringing her imaginary friend into the equation. I guess the best thing I can say about Amber is she had the self control to keep how major a disaster she was under wraps back at school. But that's "had." Past tense.
Amber Yates: The best thing that happened to Amber yesterday was her total failure to catch up with somebody who could've put her in a world of trouble.
Amber Yates: Putting herself on the line, no matter how slightly, for her boyfriend's killer is a terrible choice. It alienates those who should be her easy allies, and Paloma is quite unlikely to reciprocate the live-and-let-live attitude, just exploit it to her own benefit.
Amber Yates: Amber came out the best from the circus by the lake, but that mostly speaks to her being so useless and inconsequential she wasn't worth anybody's effort to hassle.
Amber Yates: Well, I suppose we have proof that there's the barest sliver of a self-preservation instinct lurking in that empty head of hers. Or is it too full, with all the voices?
Amber Yates: Being too useless to be worth killing is a pretty unfortunate advantage to have to fall back on.
Amber Yates: Well, that was unexpected. I wonder how Amber would feel, knowing that she likely ultimately saved Paloma. I wonder how what happened is going to shape Erika's path. I wonder how many people on the internet will try to pass the footage off as a zombie film.

Axel Fontaine: Axel has that fighter's spirit, but he lacks the proper judiciousness to time it well. He may make things work, or he may go off at the wrong time and flame out early; his fate is dictated more by circumstance and chance than who he is or how he acts.
Axel Fontaine (Knife-wielding Tentacle): A knife is not what Axel needs, especially a knife attached to a toy that will make for a frustrating time liberating.
Axel Fontaine: Axel also gets the friendship boost. His quick link-up with Andy leaves him in a much better spot to place actual trust in others and to have someone on his side who knows how he works and has his best interests at heart.
Axel Fontaine: Axel has proven himself fairly resilient and surprisingly capable of keeping his impulses in check. He's still the most likely of his group to fall, but that doesn't mean he's in trouble yet.
Axel Fontaine: Wandering off is a singularly poor choice in this sort of situation, but Axel has managed to learn that lesson in a gentle enough fashion that he should live to avoid the mistake in the future.
Axel Fontaine: The loss of Andy hurts, and more than adding Hel to the team helps. Axel isn't doomed or anything, but I think he's about to find most of his support network evaporated, and I don't know that he'll keep his temper enough to take it in stride.
Axel Fontaine: Andy's loss is so obviously dragging Axel down that it feels almost pointless to mention. If he doesn't snap out of it or find something to galvanize him, he's going to fall in the rankings... especially with Brady out of the picture and thus no clear motivation on offer.
Axel Fontaine: Head injuries are serious, and I'm almost positive nobody in his group has a clue what to do about one. Even if he doesn't drop dead, his poor ability to retain consciousness leaves him no option to flee a Danger Zone or violent encounter, and while I don't think Hel would abandon him, I'm almost positive that Abe has learned his lesson and would throw both to the wolves.
Axel Fontaine: Head injuries are serious. More than that, this is another reminder that injuries in general can catch up to you. While it was a lost cause from the start with Axel, the best way to fight is more defensively if you're in it for the long haul.

Billy Trevino: Risk-taking, social, been knocked around a bit, and more than a little unpredictable. Billy also knows how to draw a line and stick to it, and while the wrong line can be fatal, the right one can save your life.
Billy Trevino (Pepper Spray): Decent utility, though it's worth noting that it's apparently far, far easier to gas yourself with these than most people realize. Still, as long as he's not in a ranged fight, this can even the playing field or facilitate escape, and there's much less chance of him hesitating to use it than something more lethal.
Billy Trevino: Billy is the only member of his group with his head on straight. I nearly bumped him down for sticking with the other two, but he made a good argument for his spot here when trying to get Mackenzie back into shape. As long as he's not dragged all the way down by his partners, he can recover.
Billy Trevino: He lost Kyle, so only one more training weight to drop before he's able to start making inroads of his own.
Billy Trevino: Okay, he's on his own now, has been kicked around a little, and has a wide open world in front of him. Let's see how it plays out.
Billy Trevino: At least he seems to be doing better flying solo. It's a low bar, but shows that faith in him is not necessarily misplaced.
Billy Trevino: This is more like it. Billy's done a lot of nothing from one point of view, but from another he's been skipping back and forth between frying pan and fire without ever getting burned.
Billy Trevino: Those are some singed fingers. Billy totally misread the situation, and while Diego was being suspicious in the extreme, escalating forced an avoidable confrontation. It'd be a forgivable mistake in isolation, but what else does Billy really have to show for the past week?
Billy Trevino: I don't know why, but I expected more from Billy. Perhaps it's just this mistaken belief that someone in any group must be the competent one, and it certainly wasn't Kyle or Mackenzie.

Catherine Zier: She seems to do alright on her own, which should keep her from some of the more egregiously poor choices others will make. On the other hand, what resources does she have to make anything of herself? A decent pull could bump her up.
Catherine Zier (Large plastic bag containing 1 live lobster in water): Not even good as secondary rations, given how involved cooking lobster is. It's certainly not the decent draw to bump her.
Catherine Zier: She's held up decently enough. Nothing exceptional one way or the other, but I do like that she kept clear of a alliance that rubbed her wrong.
Catherine Zier: While Catherine's current goal is pointless in the extreme, her instincts and intellect have served her well. She managed to both figure Sierra out and avoid creating a situation that threatened or provoked the other girl. That deft touch will become ever more valuable as the game progresses.
Catherine Zier: Another falls prey to the drifting aimlessness of the current day. Catherine at least has been there before and navigated it well enough.
Catherine Zier: Never mind what I said yesterday. Catherine is drifting without an end, but doesn't seem aware that in the long run the stream is heading for a waterfall.
Catherine Zier: Catherine has lost her way, if she ever had one. She's so far on edge that it's paralyzing her, and with no real resources and a bad mentality she's in a lot of trouble.
Catherine Zier: Welcome to hospice, Catherine. I'm sure your roommates are very happy for the company.
Catherine Zier: This one was signed yesterday. It just took a few extra hours for the ink to dry.

Cecil Salazar-Loveless: Cecil often comes off as icy and almost robotic, which is a combination that could see him making some interesting choices but also doesn't speak well for long-term success. A lot of room to swing here, though.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless (Ballistic Knife): Knives are versatile, and a knife with a surprise has that added last-ditch punch to it that can make the difference in a tight situation.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: Cecil has a bit of an edgy, ruthless streak, doesn't he? I think losing Drew is ultimately going to work in his favor.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: Any way you look at it, Cecil's change in teammates was an upgrade. He's calmed down a bit, but I have enough faith is his intelligence and edginess to say he probably won't let Erika kill them all in their sleep.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: While I doubt it was intentional, Cecil picked a pretty good moment to make himself scarce. I think we may see some more of that ruthlessness that peaked through on the first day rear its head again too.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: While Cecil is at risk of becoming the next victim of The Curse Of Emmett, I personally expect him to stick around a little longer than his predecessors. He has a lot more killer instinct than either Emil or Sapphire did, and I have this hunch his loyalty may not be quite so unflinching.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: That spat over Brady's fate was interesting. I actually think it bodes well for the future of the Cecil/Emmett alliance; while it was a particularly meaningless squabble, they were able to sort it out without falling apart or throwing punches.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: Cecil and Emmett continue to make a good pair. Of course, there's a chance that things turn for the unfortunate when it comes out that their unifying motivation—putting down Lorenzo—has been taken care of without any action on their part, but from what I've seen of their reactions to stress I think they'll be able to roll with it.
Cecil Salazar-Loveless: Cecil was a study in contradictions. Early on, I had him pegged as someone who might turn, who could be ruthless and cold if he had to. Later, he seemed to number among the functional, steadfast companions. It even looked like he could survive in Emmett's company where so many others fell, but some currents are too strong to swim against.

Declyn Grayson-Anthis: Well-connected and well-liked, Declyn has a lot going for him. He's nice, and certainly has the potential to fall into the trap of helping others to his own fatal detriment, but somehow I think when the chips are down he'll see reason.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis (IWI Jericho 941): This isn't enough to bump him into the upper echelon, but it sure doesn't hurt.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: Declyn continues to threaten to break through to the top tier, but is held back by his inability to really push himself further center stage. He was spared the drugging more by chance than anything else, and yet despite being the only sober one he got shoved to the side and struggled to reel in the others quickly.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: I would say that Declyn has been lucky to avoid major conflict, but I don't think that quite tells the whole story. Declyn, by virtue of how and who he is, does a very good job deescalating situations and discouraging conflict. If the whispers are true, he almost snatched Connor's crown at prom, and you can sort of see that in how he's friends with absolutely everyone.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: Declyn worried me quite a bit with his collapse, but since he pulled himself together I've felt like he's starting to understand the situation a little better. Adapt to it? Maybe not. But there's time yet.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: Declyn is pulling his resources back together, and retains all the aspects of his personality and reputation that have made him so much of a figure of interest thus far. I was worried for a moment when he fell, but I don't think it will have lasting repercussions—for him, at least.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: Finishing Drew off must have been hard. You know what they say, though: no good deed... The circumstances leave Declyn without witnesses for corroboration, and we've seen that, while abject lies are uncommon, uncharitable spin is the name of the game in the announcements.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: Declyn got whisked away by Adonis, yes, but he handled himself well. More than that, though, Adonis is another of the ones under his spell, so I don't think he has anything to fear in the short term.
Declyn Grayson-Anthis: In some ways, Decyln's death was the biggest surprise of the day. True, he isn't the highest-rated member of this list, but when it comes to short-term prospects, he had a reliable group in a situation that suggested little danger. That's the thing about trust, though; it lets you pluck someone from a circle of friends and lure them off to their grave.

Jeff Greene: Jeff is the football member who most feels like an outsider, but in the way where he could very well go do his own thing that the others won't be able to bring themselves to. He's fit, but more than that he's independent in the ways that count.
Jeff Greene (Riot Shield): Offering a nice blend of offense and defense, this bodes well for Jeff, who's definitely tough enough to beat somebody with it if need be.
Jeff Greene: This is a bit tentative, but Jeff is armed to the gills, has a fairly stable alliance, and has shown himself to possess a relatively level head and decent self control while also displaying initiative. His good circumstances right now are his to throw away.
Jeff Greene: The injury isn't great, but it doesn't look actually crippling if he takes care of it, which he's doing. He's also cut the deadweight of his companions, and the armchair analysts say there's a high chance he's not credited with Cammy's demise, both factors in his favor.
Jeff Greene: A quiet moment and a more or less friendly interaction is probably a good thing for Jeff's mentality. Some time to recalibrate and lick his wounds should see him on a better trajectory.
Jeff Greene: Is it strange that I trust proactive Jeff to do well for himself significantly less than I trusted unsure, sling-wearing Jeff?
Jeff Greene: Whatever Jeff once had, it's fallen away. Looking back, I think the swing started when Camellia went over the cliff. I thought he was going to be crystallized by it, but now I suspect he may just crumble.
Jeff Greene: Oh, Jeff, where did it all go wrong? I mean, nothing has actually gone wrong per se, and yet somehow it feels so clear that everything has fallen apart. Once upon a time, Jeff had a direction but struggled to be effective. Now, he's perfectly successful at doing nothing.
Jeff Greene: Did I undervalue Jeff late, or overvalue him early? He proved himself capable of a measure of destruction, and knocked out one of the front-runners—a role he himself occupied a few days back—but at the same time, circumstances conspired to give him a hand and he still died for his troubles. Hmm, on balance I'd actually say I stand by the arc of his ranking shifts.

Max Rudolph: Of all the holier-than-thou hard political kids running around the school, Max is the only one who really feels like he might have something there backing up his hype, even if it's nothing but the eclipsing shadow of his own ego.
Max Rudolph (Man-catcher): Finally, Max will be able to guarantee a captive audience for his ramblings.
Max Rudolph: Max is over-performing diplomatically, and if he manages to hold onto his newfound group of well-armed allies, he's got a lot of potential to make a real mark. His stated goals are also just the right sort of quasi-noble to allow for a slow, smooth, psychologically-comforting descent into selfishness.
Max Rudolph: Max continues to solidify his cadre and hone his purpose. I'm unconvinced they'll ever make any progress on their hunts, for friends or otherwise, but it's a good crew he's assembled and it should do well to keep them safe and alive for the time being.
Max Rudolph: Having avoided getting shot by either his prey or his allies, Max remains in pretty good shape.
Max Rudolph: Max gives off the strong impression of not having the time for everyone else's games, but that he's humoring them regardless shows he's still in a pretty good spot on the social scale. We'll see how it pans out; at least the longer they dither, the more opportunities he'll have to find targets as the killers outside grow more numerous.
Max Rudolph: Something there shook Max, and I'm not sure what. He's acting off, but a reduction in fervor for chasing the more dangerous elements may well improve his odds, and if he manages to pull the group back together that should serve him well.
Max Rudolph: The shift from would-be vigilante to charity caretaker is an unusual one, but likely bodes better for Max in the immediate future. I think he still has the edge and fire within him, ready to blaze out again if given the proper opportunity, but keeping a lid on it until then can only serve him well.
Max Rudolph: Max's death is an upset, but I think what did him in was fundamentally his willingness to stand by his team. Circumstances were bad and took some of the pieces he had to work with out of play, and he still turned around an ambush. With a better opening, I think all involved would've walked away unharmed.

Megan Summers: One of the lurkers, the under-the-radar kids, but in Megan's case it feels more than anything else because she's incapable of putting herself out there. That wouldn't be a huge problem, but everything else about her screams "easy prey."
Megan Summers (ArtCreativity Juggling Balls Set for Beginners [Set of 3]): The unfortunate part about a lot of the people assigned trash is that I already wrote them off, and so am unable to do so again.
Megan Summers: There was a brief moment in which Megan looked like she might latch onto something of note, but then she got left in the dust. And I'm really not convinced Princess and Claudeson were aware she intended to come with them to begin with.
Megan Summers: Megan snaps back into focus by throwing herself into danger twice consecutively, surviving seemingly primarily because she's not worth the bother to shoot.
Megan Summers: Megan alternates between being invisible and making a good case for that being the preferable option.
Megan Summers: Combine the uselessness of whatever Roxie was doing with what looked an awful lot like a bubbling mental breakdown and you get someone lucky to still be alive.
Megan Summers: What's worse than all that stuff I said about Camille? Being the other loser.
Megan Summers: I suppose you can at least say that Megan has an accurate read on her own worth: nil.
Megan Summers: Why am I not surprised that all Megan could ultimately find success in was throwing her life away?

Parker Green: Parker is actually subtle and able to work others. He has good connections, few major enemies, and the right demeanor to get dirty. The thing is, he knows that, and that's what will most likely ultimately be his undoing. He's not good enough to make up for his lacking humility, and he doesn't seem quite able to cope when faced with someone else on his level.
Parker Green (Throwing Axe): I strongly doubt he'll be able to use that as intended, but an axe is an axe and Parker's most potent weapons were never the physical ones in any event.
Parker Green: A slow start, surely, but if Parker's not being actively hindered or dragged down that counts as a win for him.
Parker Green: Did you see how Parker handled that conversation with Ty? That's where all his hype is coming from. Yes, Ty has shown himself less violent when not cornered, but I think Parker's conscious care in handling social interactions cannot be overstated.
Parker Green: It's really difficult to keep it interesting saying "The less that happens to Parker, the better for him" every day.
Parker Green: Parker slipped up there. I think he read more malice into Nia and Michael than existed, and turned a pair of neutrals into hostiles. He recovered fairly well, though, in that he wasn't badly hurt when he easily could've been. Beyond that, I do think he can bounce back. I mean, look at what he did to Garren and Aoi. That's why he has this spot to begin with.
Parker Green: Misplay. I've noticed that particularly intelligent people often have glaring blind spots, and Blaise may be one of Parker's. He can certainly recover, if his injuries aren't too severe and he isn't randomly executed, but this was a bad situation he shouldn't have ever been in.
Parker Green: I don't understand how someone so smart in so many ways could be so stupid in this particular one.
Parker Green: I identified the company Parker kept as a blind spot and weakness, and I think we can see that stance clearly vindicated here, albeit for different reasons than I expected. In all likelihood, that just spared him the other side of the coin a day later, though.

[Kermit]

[+] Alton Announcement 8

Aliya Kimia Nemati: The wrong sort of scrappy. Driven, but possibly—no, probably—right off a cliff.
Aliya Kimia Nemati (Blowgun w/ 10 Poison Darts): Do we know what type of poison this is? I think she may have better luck jabbing people with the needles up close. I got a chance to play around with a blowgun one time, and they're actually quite difficult to properly use. And she doesn't have the ammunition to waste on practice.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: Aliya has acquitted herself well in difficult and stressful situations. While I don't predict good news of any sort for her group, I've become steadily more convinced that she has an alright chance of being one of the ones to walk away.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: A good handling of the Justin situation in the moment did little to help with the revelation of his kill and its fallout, but luckily for Aliya nobody in her group got directly hurt. They're probably better off without him, but his departure has at the same time robbed them of their purpose to some degree.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: Taking a hit from Paloma when you get to dictate the entire setup for conflict is not a good look, but also not bad enough of one to knock her down quite yet.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: That hit seems to have been a lot harder than it looked at first glance. Aliya isn't someone who can afford to have her primary advantage—her physicality—taken away, either.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: Not only has Aliya been injured, she's also saddled with the especially-doomed Tony. Really, right now probably the best thing that could happen for her chances would be him finally keeling over and releasing her from her duty.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: In many ways, Tony was probably keeping Aliya safe. While she had to care for him, her mobility was limited and she was forced into a more defensive game plan. Now that that's gone, she's still injured and still chasing a vague yet dangerous goal.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: What happened to Daria there? Aliya has probably picked up an upgrade in terms of Ace, and Hel is at least less liable to suddenly bring down the wrath of the powers that be, but the former has ditched people left and right and the latter isn't bringing that much to the table for a relative stranger. So is Aliya really better off? Quite the opposite, I think.
Aliya Kimia Nemati: Aliya's leg recovers just enough to betray her by letting her chase down Justin. That do-gooder streak could've been turned to so many greater ends, but some people just don't know when to quit.

Elisabeth Lebowski: The comedy girl with a history. Lizzie's problem is she's not quite as funny as she thinks she is, but she's absolutely caught up enough in her own image to be taken advantage of.
Elisabeth Lebowski (Hedge Clippers): Among the least useful of bladed weapons, these combine difficulty in wielding with limited cutting surface. If she's ever in a position to cleanly chop off appendages, she's in a spot where having a weapon isn't actually that key a factor to begin with.
Elisabeth Lebowski: Lizzie has managed to do alright for herself. She's panicky, and there's definitely still a chance that she implodes suddenly, but I think I may have underestimated her at first.
Elisabeth Lebowski: Lizzie rode out a group interaction without making things worse. In fact, she almost made things a little bit better. As her nerves calm and she stabilizes, she should have better odds, though that still does not bring her above decent.
Elisabeth Lebowski: I'm trying to think of a good joke or something, and I just can't. Damn. Lizzie's done alright I suppose.
Elisabeth Lebowski: Trouble in paradise? Not exactly, but Lizzie and Morgan get to average out to a solid Unfavored.
Elisabeth Lebowski: I think she and Morgan might have the right idea, finding what moments of comfort they can. If she's lucky, they'll never catch up with Michael.
Elisabeth Lebowski: Lizzie is probably going to die for her boyfriend. On her own, I'd rate her chances significantly better, but I just can't help but think that, whether Morgan realizes it or not, her tendencies will put her in the crosshairs first.
Elisabeth Lebowski: With her boyfriend's help, Lizzie lands in the terminal ward, thus populating this tier for (probably only) one day more.
Elisabeth Lebowski: I want to find a good joke here to send her off but I don't think I can beat Michael saying he'll stop killing.

Jonah Heartgrave: He's nice, a bit prone to putting everyone else first, but you know, I think that even rubber snaps if pulled too far. It's always the ones you trust the most. Or, should I say, the ones most people trust the most.
Jonah Heartgrave (Desert Eagle handgun): A good draw, and one that would almost tempt me to bump Jonah up a tier. We'll see, but given my suspicions, he may just end up a breakout.
Jonah Heartgrave: Mm, I really want to kick Jonah up to the top tier, but I just can't help feeling that his good nature—forced or not, be it as it may—just keeps him from being quite the sure bet that the others in that rank are.
Jonah Heartgrave: I'm actually a little surprised just how hard Abel's loss hit Jonah. Somehow, I thought he might take it better. Not that it changes all that much. Still a good group, still a dubious aim.
Jonah Heartgrave: On the one hand, a whole lot of bad shit could've gone down when Jonah ducked out of the room with Arizona. On the other, all of it would've happened to other people.
Jonah Heartgrave: Little has changed, in part because they've been so stagnant and nobody has challenged their little fortress. The biggest thing here is noting how lucky he is that it wasn't the marshmallows that were poisoned.
Jonah Heartgrave: Reunited with Arizona and on the move, Jonah's worst enemy at this point is his own tendency to put himself on the line for others. While I question the overall sincerity behind his actions, Arizona is the person most likely to benefit from them in an unqualified way.
Jonah Heartgrave: Jonah played his part almost perfectly. While he was hurt in the fighting, I don't think it's going to kill him, and I suspect that when the smoke clears, he and Arizona will be one of the most potent pairs left in play.
Jonah Heartgrave: Jonah and Arizona remain the most functional, competent partnership going on, but Jonah also remains just that little bit more willing to throw himself into the line of fire because it's "the right thing to do."
Jonah Heartgrave: A few disappointing tactical decisions left Jonah more exposed than he should've been; really, he should have waited on the edge of the forbidden area to be (and have quicker access to) backup. The fundamental problem, however—that he was simply too willing to die for somebody else—lands him in exactly the hot water he's had coming ever since it became clear he wasn't faking, and that can't really be laid on Arizona's absence.

Julien Leblanc: Mm, Julien, you have so much going for you but you've made an awful lot of enemies lately. Word gets around, and I don't think you've quite figured out just how far into the spotlight you've stepped. But my first impression still hasn't changed, and I see major things to come for you.
Julien Leblanc (War Scythe): Probably too fiddly to be of much use, at least Julien's assigned weapon looks intimidating. He's not the sort to have to rely on gear to have potential, either.
Julien Leblanc: Julien is performing more or less as anticipated. We'll see if others repeat Ivy's mistake of underestimating him.
Julien Leblanc: Calming down and dialing it back is a good look. While some will surely disagree, Ivy was a fair target. Now, Julien has some experience with violence under his belt, but without the burden of an island-wide reputation, which allows him to still cultivate alliances, however questionable their value.
Julien Leblanc: Interesting developments. He's starting to lose his cool, and it's become something of an open secret just how hot Julien can run when the chips are down.
Julien Leblanc: That wound is going to slow him down. It might even kill him. It was enough for me to consider bumping him a peg, but Julien is nothing if not a bundle of surprises, and I wouldn't bet against him just yet.
Julien Leblanc: Julien is playing with fire. He has a real aura to him, an unsettling energy that is putting those he meets on guard but also letting him command their respect. But will it hold up when he meets someone unimpressed by it? Matthew called his bluff. Then again, this confrontation was notable in that Julien truly was bluffing. What if next time he's not?
Julien Leblanc: Anyone else might lose points over the injuries and the vaguely-suicidal plan of action, but it's all part of the package for Julien. I think he needs to push himself as close to the edge as possible in order to remember that he doesn't want to go over it just yet.
Julien Leblanc: Brazen gutsiness and forcing others' hands are risky traits, but the potential for payoff is also quite high. Julien's taken a beating, but remains much more resilient than might be expected, and I don't think he's going out soon barring a particularly unlucky turn of fate.
Julien Leblanc: Désolée, Julien. Ç'est la vie et la mort. Mais, je pense que ç'est probable tu ne serais pas seul longtemps.

Lucas Diaz: Lucas may seem quiet and melancholic, but I think that masks some fascinating depths and potential. I can see him going almost any way except immediate out.
Lucas Diaz (Foam Minecraft diamond sword and pickaxe set): Junk, and for someone who seems so on edge, possibly just enough of a slap in the face to send him down the road to despair.
Lucas Diaz: His head doesn't seem to be in a good place. I guess it's reasonable enough that he doesn't know that nobody happens to the bodies, but what his little speech really showed is that he considers his demise inevitable. He's right, of course, but taking it for granted hastens its arrival.
Lucas Diaz: I'm almost tempted to push him back up now that he's discovered a purpose. I feel like it'll keep him moving, from spite if nothing else. The problems, however, are twofold. First, what happens if Erika goes and gets herself killed without him? And, second, what happens if Lucas really does manage to catch up to one of the best shots on the island and tries to go after her with a pointy paddle?
Lucas Diaz: I think sitting around not finding Erika is basically the optimal result for Lucas' day at this point.
Lucas Diaz: I've been fairly impressed with Lucas today, honestly. He came closer than expected to his goal, figured out what was going on, survived, and saved Julien to boot. Whether that's enough to bump him up, that's a question for the future. A lot depends on how the next few days play out.
Lucas Diaz: Diaz continues on strong. Of his group, he seems the most certain. It's just a shame the goal he's inexorably fixed on is so self-destructive.
Lucas Diaz: You know, I may be wrong, but might Diaz be losing some of his fixation on Erika? It seems like the group is bringing him back to earth, giving him more to focus on. And, at the same time, he hasn't lost the drive to live. These are good signs.
Lucas Diaz: What I said for Katelynne goes double for Lucas, given his greater personal drive to see a violent mission through. The longer the killers have to wear themselves out, the better the results of a confrontation with them will be—of course, the more people they shoot in the meantime, but when only one person goes home, does that really matter?
Lucas Diaz: You see, this is the problem with getting caught up in the process. What did Lucas really want, at the end of the day? Erika dead? Should've opened with bullets. Erika watching in fear as he utterly dominates her before killing her? Say hello with a shot to the arm, and let her squirm while you monologue afterwards. Of course, if Lucas had a perfect understanding of what he wanted and a logical plan for getting it, he would've never found himself in that situation in the first place.

Sean Leibowitz: It seems like everyone in school is either generally nice or generally awful. Sean is generally nice, but I think he has the follow-through to overcome that disadvantage.
Sean Leibowitz (Durian): I've actually eaten durian, you know. They taste as bad as they smell, which is only slightly worse than what they're doing for Sean's chances.
Sean Leibowitz: Sean is not the shining star of his little group, and to be honest the group is not the shining star of first day alliances, either.
Sean Leibowitz: Sean's biggest contribution to the debacle at the infirmary was not making anything worse, but given how every other person present was ready to cheerfully escalate or double down in some capacity, that's not nothing.
Sean Leibowitz: It's really shocking to me just how utterly disinterested most of this group seems to have become in their own survival. Is it depression over Desiree? When Diaz's reaction looks good in retrospect, you know something's wrong.
Sean Leibowitz: Sean is the quiet member of his group, it feels like. That's not a terrible spot to be, and I find it a lot more likely that he's able to stomach abandoning Sakurako, but it also means he has the lowest share of loyalty, and he happens to have pretty dismal prospects on his own.
Sean Leibowitz: You know, for having a pretty quiet few days, he's in a decent place. Yeah, he is to a degree the unremarkable member of the group, but he's still alive and is solidly a member that the others have reason to watch out for and care about. It's something.
Sean Leibowitz: You know what? Sean swims against the tide and moves up to join his allies. He's held his own as part of the group for some time now, and despite his third wheel status I think he's an equally valuable member and just as likely as the others to see tomorrow.
Sean Leibowitz: Sean showed off his understated value in the handling of Zach, and a generally quiet period works in the favor of a group with a pacifist bent.
Sean Leibowitz: Alright gang, let's split up. Isn't metal adjacent enough to horror that he should know better than this? And did he really have to do this right after I started giving him more credit?

Sierra Cook: Sierra has a good head on her, the ability to look past easy solutions and simple prejudice, but at the same time she's not afraid to scrap if she has to and isn't honor-bound to let others throw the first punch. That's a good combination.
Sierra Cook (Stun Gun): The nice thing about nonlethal weapons is it's much, much easier to justify pulling the trigger. This can turn a fight instantly, giving opportunities to either double down for the kill or tap out unmolested.
Sierra Cook: Sierra might be in a spot to move up, but is kept out of the highest tier due to some evident communications issues plaguing her alliance coupled with uncertainty over how permanent it will ultimately be. Still, she's going places.
Sierra Cook: The restraint Sierra showed today was good, proving that she's at least still capable of more diplomatic solutions to problems. I'm afraid she may be a little too forthright about her past robberies, but maybe she'll learn from the mixed reception she scored this time.
Sierra Cook: Following Katrina is a terrible idea, but Sierra is presumably clever enough to take advantage of any opportunities that may arise when the endeavor inevitably goes wrong.
Sierra Cook: Sierra keeps her spot based not on anything she's done particularly recently, but rather because we've already seen what she's capable of when she justifies it to herself. Playing nice when you can is just smart. It lets you avoid the situation where you're killed by someone you randomly antagonized.
Sierra Cook: With the developments in the game as a whole, Sierra's little alliance actually has become one of the groups to watch most closely. They have enemies, but not many compared to the more visible players, and they seem to have established a solid enough working relationship.
Sierra Cook: Well, at least she had some fun. More than that, though, Sierra managed to make herself scarce when it came to tackling the most dangerous parts of the fighting, without being obvious about it. Was that intentional? Does it ultimately matter?
Sierra Cook: I think Sierra's likely much more genuine about her willingness to help Katrina than Willow is, but I also think it's probable that the developments there further solidify the core of the group as a two-woman partnership—you know, as if the hookups weren't doing that already.
Sierra Cook: That's the fluke for this cycle. By now, all it takes to knock a once-promising contender out of the running is a bad encounter and a single moment of lapsed caution, and for all her vitality and promise Sierra is no exception.

Theo Walterson: Theo escapes the great morass of "average" ranked kids who I don't know very well by virtue of what company he does keep. He's also able to walk the walk in a more aware way; he feels under the radar by choice rather than ineptitude.
Theo Walterson (Color Guard rifle): More or less a broom handle, but a chunk of wood is a chunk of wood, and a chunk of worked wood is marginally better than a tree branch.
Theo Walterson: I can't believe he had the chutzpah to make that bluff work. I mean, a lot of that's on the ones who swallowed it too. It will be interesting indeed to see where he goes.
Theo Walterson: It's not that there's been anything wrong with what Theo's done—in fact, he dodged some trouble nicely yesterday—but more that with the lower tiers emptying out someone has to move down and Theo has yet to recapture the same brilliance he managed with his initial bluff.
Theo Walterson: Sticking with Declyn's group is probably a fairly good call, but Theo has slipped more and more into a cycle of coasting. That's fine while some semblance of normalcy prevails, but as soon as things get dicey he may find himself out of his depth.
Theo Walterson: Little has changed. Theo's sticking with Declyn, which is good, but is also in his shadow, and with much less to make people think twice about blowing him away.
Theo Walterson: Another quiet guy in a support role, but I liked that he wasn't quite so willing to take Declyn at his word right away. Granted, he was completely off-base and may have sown the first seeds of mistrust, but you can't have your cake and eat it.
Theo Walterson: I blame Theo most strongly for the loss of Declyn. He was distracted, but less directly involved in the scrap at the docks than Camilla. He's had flashes of competence, of promise, but at the end of the day he's dropping the ball more than the others, and while he may well cost someone else as the group's weak link, I think it more probable he pays the price himself.
Theo Walterson: I have to say, if there's any surviving member of the gardening club I have doubts about, it's Theo. I don't think he's going to pick a fight, but given his grilling of Declyn earlier, I'm also not convinced he'll let go of Diego's misdeeds quite so readily as Camilla has. And if push comes to shove, my money is on Diego.
Theo Walterson: Most of the time, I can see things coming that may not be so obvious to those on the ground. In this instance, though, I think I was caught just as off guard as Theo. No fault for him here; Camilla's breakdown was very understated until it suddenly wasn't.

Tirzah Foss: Tirzah's off in her own world to such a point that it won't be a surprise at all if she fails to properly interface with the real one. That's a dangerous trait to have, especially when one slip-up is all it takes to fall apart.
Tirzah Foss (Wildey .45): A good draw, and, I must say, a very nice looking gun. Can she do anything with it? That remains to be seen.
Tirzah Foss: Tirzah has made a name for herself, but she's also demonstrated a shocking lack of foresight. She's shaking the soda can, and that's more interesting than just standing around without a doubt, but it means she'll end up soaked all the sooner.
Tirzah Foss: I'm tempted to bump Tirzah up a notch, but upon reflection I'm pretty sure she just looks good by immediate comparison.
Tirzah Foss: Tirzah's traveling companions really do seem intent on casting her in a good comparative light, but it's important to remember that she's not only working with them by choice, she sought them out. Whatever she thinks she's getting from them, gunning them both down would've done a world more for her.
Tirzah Foss: Tirzah has hung on long enough to prove herself by far the brightest light in her little robber group. Faint praise, but I think there might even be a world where she's not the member to get dumped as a liability.
Tirzah Foss: Tirzah seems to be all-in on sticking with and helping Wyatt, but the question lingers: why? What is she getting out of it? If you think this is purely from the goodness of her heart, you're naive.
Tirzah Foss: Ace was one of the best possibilities for Tirzah to run into. Their encounter let her preemptively neutralize a potential threat, and her actions are unlikely to raise too many eyebrows. In fact, I think she's more likely to land in trouble for telling the truth about the mercy kill than she is if she pretends it was self defense.
Tirzah Foss: The encounter with Justin made clear that Tirzah still isn't taking this seriously enough, but I suspect that's part of what lets her be as successful as she is. Trauma is just water off a duck's back for her.
Tirzah Foss: I guess I did overrate her, ultimately. It's easy to be beautiful when everyone you hang out with is the ugly friend.

Tonya Collins: If Tonya had good judgment she wouldn't be a mom at eighteen. If she had a solid ability to work with others, she wouldn't be doing it solo.
Tonya Collins (Machete): It's easy to use, obviously threatening, and not good enough for people to try to rob her on sight over it. If Tonya has any hidden potential, this is liable to tap it.
Tonya Collins: Tonya's done alright so far. Taken some risks, but she's been able to ease off the gas where required. She's in better shape than I initially pegged her for.
Tonya Collins: After that stunt she pulled, the only thing more prone to sinking than Tonya are her chances of making it home.
Tonya Collins: I'm kind of tempted to kick her down another notch, but she hasn't done anything today to really justify it. Or at all. I suppose we'll be patient for the moment.
Tonya Collins: I think Tonya might have laid low and done nothing all day long. But no, that's not enough to move her up.
Tonya Collins: Points for being seen again, I guess. Pushing too hard against Kelly is just going to turn Lucas against her too, though.
Tonya Collins: Tonya's crude mixture of heart-on-sleeve authenticity and clumsy manipulation would not take her nearly as far with any more aware audience than Lucas, or with any less fettered than Kelly.
Tonya Collins: I would say there's no accounting for taste, but it was clear long ago that Tonya makes poor sexual decisions.
Tonya Collins: To think there were insinuations that I was sleeping on Tonya's potential.

[Kermit]

[+] Alton Announcement 9

Camilla Bell: She's no social butterfly, but Camilla has some surprising twists to her, and connections with a handful of people who could do much to counteract her most overt issues. She's not firmly in this category, but I expect more from her than a cursory glance might suggest.
Camilla Bell (Pair of Walkie-Talkies [24 hours of battery included]): This is potentially an amazing draw, though I'm not sure Camilla is the sort to get proper use out of it. Still, it enables a level of organization and coordination nothing else in the game can touch.
Camilla Bell: Cutting and running would be a far worse choice for her had she not managed to keep in contact with Henry. I think she's still in this for sure—well-liked, reasonably smart, and slowly but surely becoming inured to the tragedies surrounding her.
Camilla Bell: While I praised Angie for skipping out of the group Camilla's in, it's not because I think there's anything fundamentally wrong with that group of students—quite the opposite, in fact. Camilla has a whole lot of tools in her arsenal, is putting into practice a decent plan of action, and has enough positive personal qualities that she may well come out alright even when it all goes to hell.
Camilla Bell: From one messy, overstuffed group to another, but without any continuity in membership. Drifting isn't the worst decision, especially with a mooring lifeline in the walkie talkie, but I wouldn't call it the best, either.
Camilla Bell: There we go. In giving Justin the slip, Camilla has proven herself a whole lot more than just a calming influence and a social asset. Now that she knows just how serious this all is, let's see what she does.
Camilla Bell: What a reunion. It is ultimately fortuitous, though; without friends to help deal with the trauma, everyone involved in Drew's death might have taken it much harder.
Camilla Bell: Camilla's lasting loyalty towards Diego may just be enough to smooth over a gulf that otherwise could not be bridged. I strongly doubt that tactics are anywhere in her plan, but that doesn't really matter—Diego will certainly be thinking along those lines, making him a valuable pickup whatever the motivations.
Camilla Bell: Camilla has the resources and the mentality to stay in action for some time yet, and her plant experience is paying unexpected dividends. That said, she's certainly at the stage of things where she's vulnerable to a bad turn of fate—nothing to do with her, but the island becomes a more dangerous place every day.
Camilla Bell: In a day that saw a whole lot happen, Camilla's abrupt descent into homicide is the single most intriguing development. It's hard to fully pin her motives down—I think it's clear at least that she was not fully rational—which makes predicting her future path a similarly thorny proposition. I would say the closest touchstone might be Claudeson's killings, but while he seems set on his trajectory, I could easily see Camilla coming to her senses, especially with her potential crash course with Henry and Aurelien. She could become a force to be reckoned with, she could spend the rest of her life trying to make amends, she could curl up into a catatonic little ball—or, unfortunately, she could get going on any of those paths and find her time cut short due to poor luck or some fundamental deficiency. I can't wait to find out.
Camilla Bell: Mm, such a shame. While her trajectory was fascinating in its own right, and kept another figure I'm watching very closely in play, I still do wish we'd gotten to see a little more of how Camilla grappled with her actions and their fallout. Her path was one of the strangest I've seen, and while its end was all-but-inevitable, it didn't have to arrive quite so soon.

Claudeson Bademosi: Claudeson has something about him that makes him hard to peg. He won't be boring, and he won't be what you'd expect from a glance, that's for sure. But will that be enough to carry him far? Hard to see. He's near the top of this category, with a lot depending on his pull and what happens in the early stages.
Claudeson Bademosi (Min-jae Parker's crossbow [20 bolts]): A good pull, and while his potential hesitance to actually bring a weapon into play keeps him from deriving quite the same benefit from this that others might, it's enough to kick him up a notch given he already was near the top of his category.
Claudeson Bademosi: Something's going on with Claudeson. Right now, there's this manic energy about him, like nothing can stop him. It won't hold, but I think it'll pull him along for a ways yet.
Claudeson Bademosi: The high is over, but the low is a different animal. Claudeson is still being driven by something, and while I don't think he truly meant to hurt Tyrell, it's a step closer than I expected him to go.
Claudeson Bademosi: Now here we have something interesting. Claudeson's hurting and lost, but while the motives may change, the nature of the man will not. Whatever he may think, Claudeson is not one to sit around or play a passive part. Idle hands...
Claudeson Bademosi: I actually considered moving Claudeson up here, but his decision to bring Lori along opens him to a lot of risk. Lori is significantly more clever than I think he's equipped to see just now, and if her instability flips the wrong way she may end up a colossal liability or risk.
Claudeson Bademosi: Bret Carter is a feather in the cap—particularly because only a small handful of people are likely to be upset enough about his passing to go gunning for Claudeson. In fact, his actions overnight may make him seem more trustworthy to a number of his peers, especially if the circumstances aren't too clearly detailed in the announcements.
Claudeson Bademosi: I don't think Claudeson's out, certainly, but he's starting to slip. He missed Lori's deception, and he chose an incredibly inefficient method for putting Meka down, sustaining a lot of avoidable harm in the process. It's not the wounds, or the inattention, or the killing—it's the combination, the growing suspicion that he's losing whatever way he has left.
Claudeson Bademosi: We'll see how Claudeson turns. The game is starting to wind down, and I'm not sure what his ultimate goal is. I'm not sure even he's sure of it.
Claudeson Bademosi: For many killers, spans of quiet work to their advantage. A lull in the action, a host of other names to forget theirs in favor of, it can do so much to bolster a lie or lend credence to claims of repentance. But here, I think Claudeson's own attitude will prevent such factors from coming into play. And the time is not too far away when Lori should start playing her own angles.
Claudeson Bademosi: What was the plan? To walk across the water?

Emmett Bunnell: There's nowhere for Emmett to go but up. Everyone already hates him. He's a loser with no expectations, but for precisely that reason he's in a great position to change minds and do what he needs to without too much worry about his standing.
Emmett Bunnell (Military Entrenching Tool): There are far worse things to have if you're prone to taking a swing at somebody in a fit of anger. Bonus points for light utility use in specific situations, though I doubt Emmett will ever find himself simultaneously in them and clear-headed enough to make use of this.
Emmett Bunnell: Losing Emil hurts, and a running antagonism with Lorenzo is a great way to end up dead if you're not a fighter, but Emmett has shown he's got the guts to take a swing and the luck to live to tell the tale.
Emmett Bunnell: Well, Emil is a better option than Sapphire, that's for sure. And maybe now that his actions have finally had real consequences, he'll exercise a bit more caution going forwards.
Emmett Bunnell: Getting everyone around you killed is technically a valid way to slim down the competition.
Emmett Bunnell: Emmett has proven a lot more self-aware and willing to back down than I would've given him credit for. All of that is good, since really his biggest disadvantage is his tendency to borrow trouble. Of course, with his track record, he may be able to win just by allying with everyone he meets and letting nature take its course.
Emmett Bunnell: Emmett continues to fall on the lovable side of lovable asshole. I think his bond with Cecil is getting stronger, and he's had a taste of chasing vengeance, enough that maybe he'll reconsider whether it truly is the path for him.
Emmett Bunnell: Emmett's about to be short one goal, but given his total failure to make any effective progress on it that may be a blessing in disguise. He can stop pretending and just focus on keeping himself together.
Emmett Bunnell: The curse returns with a vengeance. Over the course of a day, Emmett lost everyone in his group except Jonathan, who I can't help but suspect he doesn't care that much about. His stated path of destruction makes me expect that the cure is coming before too long, but not quite yet. I think he takes one or two with him.
Emmett Bunnell: Emmett's losing the plot. I suppose it's not too unexpected, given that every single person he's so much as waved hello to has been horribly killed, but if he doesn't find some discretion he's on his way to joining them.
Emmett Bunnell: Well, in the end Emmett came back around and tried to do the right thing, but it zeroed out just like he'd planned for his grand finale. I suppose it shouldn't be too big a surprise. Dragging others down in his self-destruction was his greatest knack.

Forrest Quin: Forrest is like Beryl-lite. She works in her own way, but I don't think it's the sort of way that will keep her safe and secure—see her arm for the proof. More likely, she'll soon find herself in way over her head and unable to grapple with reality. And yet, I think she just may have been there before.
Forrest Quin (Ball-gag and Handcuffs): I know they say these are random, but someone must've been having a laugh with the handcuffs. This is actually not pure trash, however; it gives some good options to restrain the uncooperative without killing them.
Forrest Quin: The loss of her supplies hurts, but it also has allowed her to solidify a loyal group, creating naturally what Myles seemed to want to fabricate.
Forrest Quin: Forrest's group is still in alright shape, I suppose, but their inability to competently pursue a fairly simple objective has me worried about their long-term prospects. Then again, I think there's a decent chance Forrest is among the ones who slink away from the rubble.
Forrest Quin: What's more useful: a bag, or Katie, Meilin, and Dane? That wasn't rhetorical, for the record.
Forrest Quin: Forrest has found another group of misfits, but somehow she doesn't quite seem to fit even here. Nothing substantial enough to change her rank for yet, though, not when she's already in the middle.
Forrest Quin: I'm not sure what to make of her. Something's shifting, it feels like, but to what end? If Forrest snaps, can she even accomplish anything?
Forrest Quin: Forrest continues to freeload with great effectiveness, but now from a place of command. On the one hand, that lets her steer the others. But I wonder, does she realize that her group actually consists primarily of those who may be using her as much as she's using them?
Forrest Quin: In another group, Forrest would be moving up due to her assumption of leadership. Perhaps she's content to be where she is, and maybe she's fully aware of everything going on and is much more subtle than I'm giving her credit for... but I just can't help but slot her in the mid-range when it comes to the wheels within wheels at play in her alliance.
Forrest Quin: Forrest gains and loses some here. I think, on a really tactical level, she should've tried to shed Connor sooner in order to better devote her attention to retaining and managing Faith. Forrest has a much better social presence than Christina, but I think sometimes she buys into her own hype a little, which is why she's now in position to struggle for control of a single minion rather than holding three at her beck and call.
Forrest Quin: You see, this is what I've been talking about for a few days now: Forrest was slick, slippery, and ready to throw anyone else under the bus... but time and again she managed to surround herself with others who exemplified those traits to even greater degrees.

Ivy Langley: Slowly but surely, Ivy seems to be realizing that almost everyone despises her. And yet, she has enough sycophants who are already detached enough from the reality of the school that she will last for some time as they throw themselves away for her. But that's never enough, is it? Close is not all the way.
Ivy Langley (1 gallon jug of bleach): Still not enough to wash her clean. Not even close.
Ivy Langley: For a moment, I thought Julien might go all the way. It really had me on the edge of my seat. Things are back to normal now, though, and since the injuries she took don't seem liable to kill her on their own, she'll most likely actually benefit from a lesson in caution. Well, two, thanks to Lori. I can't deny that she's slipping some, but I think she'll bounce back.
Ivy Langley: As she is wont to do, Ivy has attached like a remora to someone capable and sympathetic, and will now cling to him for as far as he's willing to drag her. I suppose you can't knock it too much if it works.
Ivy Langley: Use what you have, I suppose. I would say I don't understand the appeal she has for so many of my classmates, but then she's not exactly getting the pick of the litter in terms of lovers either. I think Ace may be the best she's done—in personality, if not in stamina.
Ivy Langley: Ah, there we have the return of the classic Ivy, throwing Amelia to the wolves at the first sign of trouble. We also have the return of the classic Ivy who thinks she's so aware but can't tell that the trouble's not so scary to begin with. In any event, she's lost a lot of resources but has enough of that narcissism remaining to carry on for a while.
Ivy Langley: Myles is the best possible pickup for Ivy. Yes, there is a chance he hangs her out to dry at the eleventh hour, but I don't think he'll do so unless there really is no other choice; these two have precious little honesty or loyalty, but what is present is reserved for each other.
Ivy Langley: What we learned from Ivy's encounter with Julien was pretty important: if she's too personally involved with the violence, she doesn't have the guts to finish things. That isn't a problem just yet, but in time it will be.
Ivy Langley: Myles' deception is going to cause some trouble, but I really don't think Ivy cares enough about anyone outside her little circle for it to impact her too negatively.
Ivy Langley: We can say with some certainty that Ivy isn't going to drop dead from what happened to her, given she hasn't yet. Frankly, she fared substantially better in a fight than I would've expected, so while she's unlikely to get a second shot at it with her current physical state, it doesn't do too much to change her prospects with her more valuable tools, and if anything gives her extra ammunition to sell others on the idea that she needs protection.
Ivy Langley: Now this I didn't expect... and I'm sure Ivy didn't either. And yet, ultimately, what she fell prey to was her very obvious tendency to try to have her cake and eat it. Had she picked one path or the other, she would've clung to some measure of control and life for a few days more, but she was just so confident nobody would ever hurt her.

Jonathan Meyers: Hmm, loners can be bad news, but in this case a distance from the turgid heart of school drama is probably more of an advantage than a drawback. And he seems to keep himself together well enough, but who can say what's underneath?
Jonathan Meyers (Pair of deer antlers): This won't do him any good, that's for sure, but I don't think it sinks him either.
Jonathan Meyers: Jonathan's misapprehensions as to how exactly this all will play out leave him lagging a step behind everybody else; he is effectively starting for real now, and his course is therefore difficult to predict.
Jonathan Meyers: Okay, Jonathan is starting for real now. Any minute now. I can feel it coming. Any minute.
Jonathan Meyers: At this rate, Jonathan should get his ass in gear sometime between his own fatal stabbing and the heat death of the universe.
Jonathan Meyers: Don't worry. It's only a little tiny bit of brain damage.
Jonathan Meyers: The listless drifting feels ever more aimless, but the safe spaces to end up are rapidly evaporating. That incident with Justin is a mere taste of what's to come.
Jonathan Meyers: The bike's a good tool, I suppose. Now if only he had a tangible goal with reasonable chances of progress.
Jonathan Meyers: Jonathan surviving the chaos and violence that devoured most of his groups is perhaps the biggest twist from an entire series of unexpected happenings. The ultimate reason behind it, however, was his being a step behind the curve, coming up missing when he could've done something. That seems sure to weigh on him, and it also bodes poorly for his future prospects.
Jonathan Meyers: What happened with Sierra, that was really bad. He's lost a lot of control, and his goals are becoming more muddled. It's ironic, in a way: as he tries to walk a path opposite Emmett's, he somehow finds himself following a familiar set of footprints.
Jonathan Meyers: Crashing and burning, plain and simple. I won't speculate why—it could be anything from his mishap with Sierra to his head injury all those days ago—but Jonathan went over the edge and bit the hand that tried to pull him back to safety.

Lucas Abernathy: Lucas looks good on paper, but he's all too often puffing himself up. He's not as smart, as suave, or as classy as he thinks he is. He's not terrible or anything, but that overconfidence and overreach will be a hindrance and drag him down.
Lucas Abernathy (Mossberg 500): It's a good weapon, no doubt, but something smaller and simpler might be more up Lucas' alley. Also, one has to wonder whether his film passion might have given him certain misapprehensions about shotguns.
Lucas Abernathy: Lucas has so much going for him on paper now. A good gun, armed allies, some measure of trust. But when it all was on the line, what did he do? He froze. He froze and he lost control of his gear and those are very bad habits, ones he can't count on going unpunished in the future.
Lucas Abernathy: Despite packing the most heat, Lucas feels like the odd one out in his group—odd, that, since Max's plan is being met with nearly universal skepticism. Beryl's death has caused a lot of trauma for a lot of people, and I wonder whether Lucas might end up another casualty of it indirectly, just by being kept from really connecting with his allies.
Lucas Abernathy: Staying by the door is one of the smartest things he's done all game. A few more moves like that, and he just might get me believing he's learned something from all those horror movies.
Lucas Abernathy: Casting himself as the neutral party is in theory a good decision, but if Lucas doesn't step to Max's beat, he may find his stock in the group dropping rapidly.
Lucas Abernathy: As far as the group's fracturing goes, I think everyone ended up where they were best fit. Arizona and Jonah pair off, Max gets Darlene, and Lucas is thrown to the wolves.
Lucas Abernathy: Lucas is getting played so hard by Kelly and Tonya that he may well end up coming out on top. You see, as the piece in contention, he moves from the category of opponent to a designation as prize—and he seems to be enjoying that role quite a bit, as each girl caters to him and tries to wheedle him onto her side.
Lucas Abernathy: Well, Lucas certainly came out on top in one way.
Lucas Abernathy: Off on his own, Lucas seems to be spiraling into something, though what precisely is unclear. Victory? I doubt it. But he's better-armed and in better shape than many of his peers, so I think he has a good chance to shake things up on his way out.
Lucas Abernathy: You know, Lucas never understood that it's not just about fucking every girl who'll have you. Seduction is built on understanding, reading the room and knowing the mood and telling what your quarry wants. The warning signs were all over here, but he missed them because ultimately he was a craftsman, not an artist. As to his last little movie: decent effects, good splatter, but I'm not seeing the sequel potential.

Madison Springer: She's a mess, inconsistent, dreaded by half the school but without the air of respect that tinges so many others of her ilk. Her only chance is to swing a boost from Connor, but I find it more likely she drags him down unless he cuts the ballast.
Madison Springer (Box of Condoms): It's funny, because Madison strikes me more as the type to be crazy enough to poke holes in these.
Madison Springer: Becoming Nathan's guardian angel does significantly more for his chances than Madison's; she's likely just digging her grave deeper slashed-hand by surrendered-resources by bubbling-tantrum.
Madison Springer: Putting aside the very real chance she dies from the poison, Madison has also just gone out on a limb and been punished severely for it. What happened is going to reinforce all of her worst habits, and her only reliable ally at this point isn't bringing much besides moral support to the table for her.
Madison Springer: Okay, unlike Ramsey I'm pretty solidly sure Madison has gotten over the hump and will not die from the poison. She may keel over from running herself to exhaustion, though, or manage to piss off Nathan just enough that he shoves her off something high by mistake.
Madison Springer: Madison is still a prisoner of her own making, and Nathan is still her deputized jailkeeper.
Madison Springer: Oh dear. While I don't think her intentions were as bad as they'll inevitably be spun, come announcements Madison's reputation is going to be tarnished indeed. And she wasn't in a good spot there to begin with.
Madison Springer: I'm pretty sure she popped up in the background there while Ace and Tirzah were talking, but thought better of it and didn't show her face. Probably a wise choice, all things considered.
Madison Springer: I think we missed her, or nothing too major was happening. Honestly, that's about the best she can hope for.
Madison Springer: Okay, it was nothing major happening yesterday, but does Madison even have water anymore? She must be running on fumes, and I don't know if her mental state will let her approach someone else even if it's the difference between life and death.
Madison Springer: Did it take this long for the starvation and desperation to set in enough to push you over the edge, Madison, or were you waiting until we passed the two-thirds mark specifically to spite me?

Myles Roux: The cleverest and surprisingly most stable of the dysfunctional social center of George Hunter, Myles will probably ultimately be undone by the fact that he's actually got some humanity in him. I think he should be able to navigate the challenges of the game well for a time, but he's liable to be dragged into trouble by someone with less discretion, or else fall afoul of enemies made back before such things really mattered.
Myles Roux (Kiss of Death [lipstick gun]): That strikes me as ever so slightly homophobic.
Myles Roux: I expected more from you, Myles. I know you're better than this. You didn't have to risk all your resources for a sob story. For a time, you weren't just pretending to be reliant on others, and it was entirely self-inflicted. And now, you're on your own again, and that blow to the dignity must be smarting.
Myles Roux: Well, Myles has done better for himself today, slightly, but that doesn't change the fact that it's taken him this long to come to more or less where he should've been from the word go. I want to see what lasting changes that attempted murder produces, too. Will he step it up, or get distracted making out?
Myles Roux: That was an awful lot of sitting on the ground not doing much while your ally gets stabbed. Frankly, had the stabber been anyone but Adonis, Myles would've been in a world of trouble.
Myles Roux: Adonis is a decent minion. Myles has pulled himself together a bit, but not enough to rebuild my confidence.
Myles Roux: Myles and Ivy being reunited leaves a lot of room for both to better their collective lots, but the fact remains they've widely disliked and lacking in tools beyond the spheres of trickery and cowardice. We'll see how that treats them.
Myles Roux: Ivy keeps Myles out of the trash heap for now, but it can only last so long. He's full of talk, but when Julien was menacing them, what did he actually do? And, I believe it bears noting, for all his bluster Julien has been much more interested in provoking others than in actually challenging them. Someone playing for keeps would've had Myles on ice in an instant.
Myles Roux: There's some of the sneakiness and cunning I expected from Myles all game. Unfortunately, it manifests pointlessly once again, and unlike the faux-robbery deception on the first day, there's no ducking the consequences. I don't think a single person truly hated Declyn, and he has friends left who may come calling on his behalf, and who likely have a greater capacity for vengeance than Myles is prepared for.
Myles Roux: You know, in any other group Myles being in the best physical condition would be perfect for him—you only need to run faster than the bear and such. But, unfortunately for him, Ivy will now become what she is to everyone else she latches onto: a ball and chain when you're trying to swim across a river.
Myles Roux: Trust and loyalty have proven two of the most dangerous things to hold onto. Of all people, Myles surely knew that... and yet, he couldn't let go of that one special relationship. And the part that gets me is, that very stubbornness is what got Ivy killed along with him.

Thomas Buckley: Acting chops are nothing to sneeze at, and I suspect that Thomas' deficiencies in other areas will wane as the days go on, or at least everyone will stop caring. And never underestimate the power of the better part of valor.
Thomas Buckley (Vektor SP1): A good draw, but not on someone who's going to be put on par with, say, Connor due to it. Not really much else to say.
Thomas Buckley: Thomas impresses in both his ability to think things through and his willingness to own up to messing up. All positive traits, and I think my confidence in him is not misplaced.
Thomas Buckley: Once again, Thomas proves himself a really reasonable, rounded sort. He was willing to make tough calls to try to keep the group together, but at the same time he was able to recognize a lost cause and avoid rising to the bait he was offered, ultimately choosing the correct action. If he keeps this up, he may well solidify the remainders of his team into something notable.
Thomas Buckley: Congratulations, Thomas, you're group MVP.
Thomas Buckley: I wonder whether Sakurako's injury might bode worse for Thomas than it does for her? It's clear they're close, and I don't think he's going to abandon her.
Thomas Buckley: Thomas has honed his group to a core of allies on the same page, with emotional investment in one another. It won't take them the whole way, and there's a chance they get killed by one of Aditi's schemes, but if that doesn't happen it should keep them intact for a while yet.
Thomas Buckley: I praised Sakurako's diplomacy, but I think it's important to give Thomas credit too. He's come a long way from where he was at the beginning, even if his tendency to resort to threats remains.
Thomas Buckley: No news is good news, or at least not the sort of bad news that gets you killed.
Thomas Buckley: Losing Sean hurts, but Thomas has gained a lesson in trust (namely: don't) and still has Sakurako. At least, I assume as much—there was a little issue with the feed so we left him in a pretty tense standoff, but without the resolution all involved see their rankings remain steady.
Thomas Buckley: Giving up in those circumstances was fair enough, I suppose, but I'm not sure he gave enough thought to how it might play on Sakurako's mental state. Then again, was it ever really about her? If you die thinking you're doing something good, who really cares how it actually turns out? It's not like it matters to the departed.

Tyrell Lahti: A fighter, but one without a cause. Tyrell is, at the end of the day, too good a guy for his own good, whatever he tries to pretend. He thinks trouble follows him, but he invites it in. He knows how to take care of himself, but will probably be screwed over because he usually chooses not to do it.
Tyrell Lahti (Crowbar): Useful both as a weapon and a tool, this plays to all of Tyrell's strengths, whatever path he chooses to pursue.
Tyrell Lahti: Ty has had a busy day, hasn't he? There's a risk of burn-out, certainly, but he's the sort to recover well and I think if he gets a moment to rest he'll be able to reset himself enough to roll into the second day with a fresh attitude and residual momentum.
Tyrell Lahti: Chance giveth, and chance taketh away again. In this case, chance taketh away all the factors that elevated Ty and offered him the momentum to reach his peak potential. Like his guns.
Tyrell Lahti: It's good to see that Ty can still have a passably reasonable interaction where nobody dies. The question is, how often from now on will he get the chance to repeat that?
Tyrell Lahti: Ty has some life left in him. Fight, though, I'm not sure about at all. He may make his way back up if he can shake off his funk, but what I'm seeing right now is someone in pieces, and with the kills around his neck he may well not get the time to put himself back together.
Tyrell Lahti: The depressed slump continues. While Ty has found an unexpected amount of kindness from strangers, he is not necessarily out of the woods yet. It just takes one person making a snap judgment, and he's forced to fight for his life or surrender it again... and this time, I'm not sure which option he'd take.
Tyrell Lahti: Battered, bloodied, and without the greatest purpose that was driving him, Ty is now on borrowed time. His killing of Lorenzo may win him some benefit of the doubt, but it could just as easily be misinterpreted as a return to form. What hope he has left lies in the group he's fallen in with, though he could do far worse than them.
Tyrell Lahti: I half expected Ty to die overnight, but he's proven nothing if not resilient. I feel like he may only have one big fight left in him, if that, but I think with his current group he's likely to avoid picking that fight unless it's to cover for them.
Tyrell Lahti: As it becomes clearer that Ty isn't going to just suddenly keel over and stop breathing, his stock rises bit by bit. He's a survivor, more than anything else, and while the first few days are the proverbial albatross around his neck, he may be able to leverage his killing of Lorenzo into quite a different sort of reputation.
Tyrell Lahti: Despite his demise, Ty's path over his last day actually justifies his elevation in tier in the previous update. He made a lot of headway in his trek across the island, and he took down a formidable opponent despite a serious wound. Had he not been caught on the wrong end of an opening salvo, I think he'd have more gas in the tank even now.

Yuka Hayashibara: For being so distinct, the Hayashibara sisters are awfully indistinct. She's friendly to a point, but when her patience runs out I imagine everyone else will run out of patience with her.
Yuka Hayashibara (Bug-A-Salt Camofly 2.0 Insect Eradication Gun): What can I really say? It's junk, but at least it can be mistaken for something useful in the dark if you squint.
Yuka Hayashibara: She had good enough instincts to control a tense situation she found herself in, and a level enough head not to totally discard a potential ally. Good signs, all around, but not enough on their own.
Yuka Hayashibara: Well, looks like I had things a bit backwards with the twins. I stand by Yuka ultimately having the greater long-term potential, though if she gets picked off before her remaining sister it won't be that large an upset.
Yuka Hayashibara: I'm not sure I agree with Yuka's allies on her behavior. In any event, I'm pretty sure she's reuniting with her surviving sister, which should offer a little more direction; unlike so many of the other reunions we've seen, I doubt they'll be content to wallow. They've lost too much already.
Yuka Hayashibara: Ouch. Yuka sure was quick to ditch the boys who spent so much time helping her pursue her goals. She wasn't wrong to do so, granted—they didn't trust her, she didn't trust them, and Yuki is a stronger and more functional relationship. But that doesn't erase the sting.
Yuka Hayashibara: Alone and broken, Yuka has some hard questions to ask herself. The answers will likely see her move one way or the other.
Yuka Hayashibara: This may come as a surprise, but fingers are pretty useful and losing them hurts one's chances.
Yuka Hayashibara: I think this Teresa alliance will reach its expiration date before too long. They're egging each other on in counterproductive ways, and I won't be surprised if Yuka decides she isn't about that, Teresa gets bored, or one or both get killed.
Yuka Hayashibara: When the biggest win you've had in days is being so pathetic that somebody decided it wasn't really worth the effort to crush your legs into paste, you haven't been doing very much winning.
Yuka Hayashibara: She never stood a chance. It's been clear for days that Yuka was marching to her death, but I suppose there's some faint comfort in being able to prepare your own open-casket funeral.

[Kermit]

[+] Alton Announcement 10

Amelia Fischer: I don't think you need to look to the stars to see how much trouble a weak girl without much personal direction is in.

Amelia Fischer (Arsenal Firearms AF2011-A1 Second Century): What is this thing? Why does a pistol need to be double-barreled? I have to say, though, I sort of like the aesthetic. A shame she's unlikely to get any use from it.

Amelia Fischer: Amelia managing to fluke her way into suffering a fate meant for somebody else is a pretty good microcosm of what I expect from the remainder of her life.

Amelia Fischer: If Amelia was anywhere above this, I'd be moving her down, but I don't think she's especially more doomed than anyone else at this tier. She has little going for her besides Declyn as an ally, though.

Amelia Fischer: Sneaking off after dark? I don't think she's actually been sleeping much. There are trade-offs, but how many people have been killed in their sleep so far? And how many by making stupid mistakes? Those come so much easier if you're tired.

Amelia Fischer: There's a small chance Amelia learns something valuable from being thrown out like yesterday's newspaper, and a much higher one she sulks and wonders how such a thing could've ever happened and what poor innocent Ivy meant by it.

Amelia Fischer: The space case is calming down a little, it seems, but don't let that fool you: those moments of panic and illogical lashing out could come roaring back at any moment, with much more severe consequences.

Amelia Fischer: What I said about Forrest's group using her, that implication about tactics and wheels within wheels? None of that applies to Amelia. The more I see, the more convinced I become that Amelia is clueless and useless and lucky to still be alive.

Amelia Fischer: In terms of her group, Amelia is clearly the most expendable—clueless yet overly-trusting, she can easily be jettisoned by any of her more scheming allies, and without costing them all that much.

Amelia Fischer: Still the most expendable member of the group, but now with fewer others to potentially inadvertently eat the bullets meant for her.

Amelia Fischer: From that conversation I think she may be just about to give up and throw in the towel. Then again, about the only consistent thing about Amelia is that she swerves the moment it seems like a pattern is emerging.

Amelia Fischer: Amelia beat the odds for a long time, despite being one of the most obvious marks for deception and predation. A lot of her longevity can be attributed to sticking with groups who were saving her for later, so to speak; on her own, she was easy pickings for the first one to see value to be found in her demise.



Angie Cortez: She presents herself well. That's the first step to success. The second step is living up to your implicit promises, though, and that one is less certain for her.

Angie Cortez (BR18): That is some serious firepower, and Angie is the sort to make it work for her even if she isn't actually ready to pull the trigger.

Angie Cortez: Angie put on a good show for herself on the first day, avoiding conflict but then cutting ballast the second it became feasible. There's a lot to say about the process, but she played it wonderfully, giving Myles the slip before divesting herself more directly of Adonis, who was unlikely to put up much resistance on his own.

Angie Cortez: Angie didn't seem a natural fit for the quieter, somewhat more passive group she wound up in, so I think her becoming separated from them is unlikely to hurt her—she's shown a constant willingness to keep moving.

Angie Cortez: I'm not knocking her down over it yet, but if Ramsey's condition doesn't improve, he's one of the few who could manage to be a weight on Angie that she won't be willing to cleanly jettison.

Angie Cortez: Angie may drop here soon, but for now she has something approximating a support structure to help her hold together. It won't be a total surprise if she falls apart anyways, though; I wonder if Ramsey could've guessed what effect his passing might have on her.

Angie Cortez: The gun is gone, as is much of Angie's assured stance and options for mental and emotional support. Worse, the entire island knows her as the brother-killer, and there's nobody with her now to back her up on her version of events. She's not the most doomed, but her situation isn't good, that's for sure.

Angie Cortez: Shauna is a pretty good pickup, I think. She's proven herself significantly more than I expected, and I'm seeing signs of a loyal streak that may make her more reliable than certain previous allies of Angie's.

Angie Cortez: A group of Matthew, Shauna, and Angie isn't the worst thing on the island, but it sure isn't the best, either. Odd though it is to say, I don't think Angie has the clear lead over the others she would've a few days back, and that's sure not just because Shauna's been stepping it up.

Angie Cortez: Her group is stable, yes. It's in decent shape. There's a measure of trust. They've come across a potential ally with a lot to offer. But where does Angie herself fit in? Where does she see herself going? Or does she even see herself at all anymore?

Angie Cortez: Angie's onto something by trying to stick to Arizona. All the same, I still have this suspicion that she's become the most fragile point in her group. And if what she said about feeling responsibility over Ace is even partially true, well, it'll be interesting to see how she feels in the morning.

Angie Cortez: Following Shauna was her big mistake. There was no reason for everyone to be involved—no reason for any of them to be involved, at that. Distant, inaccurate gunfire? Go out the back, or force the sniper to come in and find you, hunt you in the twisting turns of a building. Certainly don't conga-line to your doom.



Helena Fury: I don't see much room for success here. They'll most likely end up in a group, but I see few ways in which they have much to offer to such an alliance, and I have this strange hunch they're not quite self-aware in the ways necessary for this situation.

Helena Fury (Luger P08): It's an asset, that's certain, but enough of one to drag Hel up a notch? Nah. Especially since I don't recall any mention of them having any real experience with or interest in guns.

Helena Fury: Let's see, we have one part giving-up to one part getting-shot. Hel would already be dead without their fortune to have a solid support structure and a fortuitous arrival of someone with proper medical knowledge, and those things won't last forever.

Helena Fury: Hel did better today than yesterday, for sure, but still froze up at a crucial moment that could've easily led to their death. If they can shake some of the self-destructive tendencies (and avoid dying from residual effects of that bullet wound) they may make it a bit longer, but there are a number of pitfalls on the way to that end.

Helena Fury: Another good reunion here, and one that may give Hel the buddy buff if it's smooth sailing for another day or two. Their worst tendencies are more likely to be held in check around people they care about, who know them and their ways better than random passers-by.

Helena Fury: This will be an interesting case study. I think Andy's loss is going to hurt, but I can't say quite how much. If I had to guess, I'd say Axel's presence is a stronger factor for Hel, but his reaction may tilt things more into dangerous territory, and I don't think Hel will be as soothing to him.

Helena Fury: Okay, we're well into those bad waters I mentioned before. I think the morale of the group is plummeting, and I think Hel is most likely to suffer strongly from that. Combined with a preexisting wound, and it all may turn ugly in a hurry.

Helena Fury: Hel impressed me quite a bit in the confrontation with Lorenzo. If we see more of that, they may just claw into Average. But for now, I see it as an isolated incident, and it's contextualized by the most vital piece of their support structure being in bad shape indeed.

Helena Fury: While alone and vulnerable, I do think Hel got enough time with a support structure to stabilize beyond what might have been expected had they never linked up with the others. They seem to be holding up pretty well as far as that wound from the very start goes, too. They're up near the top of this category by now, but don't escape its clutches just yet.

Helena Fury: Ooh, I can see it now. Hel would be moving up a notch, were it not for their obvious fatalism and their burgeoning fondness for doing things that explicitly butt up against the rules. As it is, though, I expect them to push too far because they can't imagine any other ending, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy and a brilliant yet brief burn-out.

Helena Fury: The intervention was perhaps the most animated we've seen Hel in days... but that the most enthusiasm they can muster is for hurling themselves bodily into the midst of unknown peril does not suggest their long-term prospects are particularly good.

Helena Fury: There's not too much to say here. Poor situational awareness? Sure. But I'm pretty certain Hel wasn't really trying to survive to begin with, and they made it far further than expected.



Henry Sparks: Our space cadet here just isn't the sort to thrive in these circumstances. He's book smart, but that doesn't matter in a fight, and I doubt he'll be able to magic up any contraptions or concoctions to tip the scales.

Henry Sparks (Punt Gun): He managed to beat the odds by being assigned both a gun and useless rubbish. Then again, if there's anyone who could figure out how to wrest some actual advantage out of such an unwieldy firearm, I suppose the rocket scientist would be it.

Henry Sparks: Good work on the gun. A shame about the group, but he has more ability to rebuild something stronger, thanks to Camilla's parting gift. Now he just has to make sure he doesn't get himself blown up. [Note from the frog: hehehehehe......]

Henry Sparks: Henry's in a holding pattern. Most of what he's attempted has come remotely, and while he's had some success there, I wonder how he'll do when next he has to more directly confront a difficult situation.

Henry Sparks: Henry's current company is better equipped and more driven than what he's had to work with so far, but that also makes them much less malleable. I don't think their alliance will prove long-lived.

Henry Sparks: Henry was so close to moving up, but two things keep him where he is: he set himself as the third wheel by objecting to the group's plan out loud, and Ariana's loss leaves them with less manpower and less of a mediating presence.

Henry Sparks: Henry's motivations seem to have morphed to bring him more in line with his group, at least. The question is: is that just through pragmatic necessity, or is he actually starting to believe?

Henry Sparks: I was going to say that I'd been undervaluing Henry, but apparently I moved him up to this tier days ago. He's proven resilient and flexible, and while I would have never pegged him to be the member of his group in the best shape at the halfway point, it doesn't feel so improbable with how everything played out.

Henry Sparks: In the chaos of the confrontation with Morgan and Michael, Henry acquitted himself among the best. I think the stubborn streak, the demands for a disarming when there's no current risk, were a mistake, but there's room to learn from it, and it didn't cost Henry's group personally, at least.

Henry Sparks: I think Henry may be cruising for some trouble, actually. Not right away, not necessarily, but Morgan's suspicion that he was going to get hurt by Henry speaks to a measure of distrust, and if he does link up with Camilla, he'll be forced to weigh ideology against personal connections with no winning answer.

Henry Sparks: Something's shaken Henry up, and I don't know that he can recover from it. It's hard to say what, but maybe he's finally realizing he's been wasting the last days of his life on a fool's errand. The closer the end comes, the less impact his goals will have even if he does manage to find any success in their pursuit.

Henry Sparks: Henry spent the whole game chasing different goals with varying success, but I really think he missed his true calling as a motivational speaker. After that little pep talk, I quite expect Diego to hit the next day or two with a vengeance.



Juliette Sargent: Juliette is neither as put-together as half the school seems to think nor as much of a ticking time bomb as the other half believes. Unfortunate, as either extreme would leave her in decent shape, while the reality suggests any breakdown will be of the merely personally-disastrous variety.

Juliette Sargent (Straight Razor & Shaving Cream): Sweeney Todd is an appropriate enough touchstone, I suppose, but I don't think she'll manage quite that large a wave of carnage.

Juliette Sargent: Juliette has undeniably done some interesting things, but what has she accomplished? She undercut herself immediately with Kelly, and dipped out of the meeting with Faith pretty easily. Being active is one thing, but being proactive is another.

Juliette Sargent: Sticking to Julien is playing with fire. We've seen what he can do if he takes offense at something, and he's better at reading in between the lines than his general reputation might suggest.

Juliette Sargent: Well, she was one of the only people to manage to do anything about the rain, which is a point in her favor. She spent the day bumming around dangerous, edgy people, though, with nothing to show for it except a vague promise.

Juliette Sargent: Juliette has acquitted herself well in her interactions, and I'm inclined to say there's intent behind it. I've been keeping her down in part because she hasn't been seriously challenged, but that may be looking at it the wrong way; through a number of encounters with seriously dangerous people, she has managed to prevent the situation from escalating.

Juliette Sargent: Getting ditched in her sleep by Connor stings, but on the other hand he didn't rob her or hurt her and she got rest. It's another little moment where things work out alright for her, but while any singular instance may be coincidence, the trend becomes ever-clearer.

Juliette Sargent: Not who I'd expect a peep show from, but I'm not complaining. Juliette is increasingly revealed as something of a one-trick pony, but the novelty of being talked to has been enough to take the fangs from some seriously scary individuals. It will stop working eventually, but maybe not quite as quickly as might be expected.

Juliette Sargent: Always with an angle to work, but where's the payoff? What's the plan?

Juliette Sargent: Quiet, quiet, quiet. You can't really knock it if it works, and by this point it clearly is, but there is a time limit on the waiting game, and it's approaching quickly.

Juliette Sargent: I think she's fully capable of, if not stabbing Roxanne and Marceline in the back, at least dragging them into the line of fire as human shields. But for all she's kept safe and maintained a more or less stable low profile, has Juliette accomplished anything of note or shown herself able to transition to some more practical ultimate plan of action?

Juliette Sargent: The biggest surprise is that this took until now, rather than happening back on the fourth day or so.



Lori Martin: Lori doesn't quit. More than that, when she sets her mind to something she clings to it with a grim tenacity that will see her through what would make lesser wills waver.

Lori Martin (LSD tablets): A so-so pull, really, but I believe that Lori is the sort to derive motivation from life's circumstances conspiring against her.

Lori Martin: Bravo. Lori. Imperfect execution, but that's the sort of spite and resourcefulness I was hoping for. I think she's going places for sure, just as long as nobody pieces everything together and manages to turn it on her. She may not have gained a ton immediately, but this is good practice for the rest of the game.

Lori Martin: Fool me once... Still, Lori actually got something from her games this time, and every step she takes is one closer to justifying an escalation to herself.

Lori Martin: Reuben wore the suit better, but anonymity certainly can't hurt Lori. That said, she's faltering a little. We've had one poisoning death announced, and another one is coming up with the morning. People are going to start becoming extremely suspicious of untested supplies, so I hope she has a backup plan.

Lori Martin: Lori is really starting to show the cracks. She did well with her tricks at the start, but enough people have died from poison now that she's unlikely to have much luck moving on. And teaming with Claudeson might feel good, briefly, but I think it will draw her into danger with little ultimate payoff.

Lori Martin: I'm not going to push Lori back up just yet, but we're seeing her team-up with Claudeson starting to work in her favor and have real impact in the game. And it seems to be doing alright for her stability, too.

Lori Martin: She can't keep getting away with it. Can she? Oh, wait, apparently so.

Lori Martin: Lori's ability to duck any consequences in the immediate aftermath of the revelation of her trickery bodes well for her. I'm pretty sure Claudeson has invested a lot of himself in standing by her, which means she shouldn't have anything to fear from him unless she initiates the betrayal.

Lori Martin: I think Lori gets antsy when things are quiet for too long. We saw it with Manuel and Meka, we saw it at the house at the start of the game, and I will not be surprised if we see it again soon. But what may not be clear right away is that there's a method to her actions, an intent and calculation that may be honed to an ever-finer point as the prize comes closer to her grasp.

Lori Martin: Ditched again, but just in time to miss a bad party. Well, I guess Lori might've had some chance of turning the tables against Ty without it costing Claudeson's life, but I just can't make myself believe in her reliability enough to give that much credit.

Lori Martin: Well well, that was quite a rampage you went on, Lori. But at the end of the day, your propensity for repetition was always liable to get you in trouble, and trying the same trick on someone who already fell for it once was arrogant. That's the sort of move that stops working when the most blatant morons have already been culled.



Paloma Salt: Paloma has the temper and the stubbornness, and can be a bitch but can also hold that in check at least occasionally. She's on the lower edge of this category, but I think sheer force of will should carry her some ways.

Paloma Salt (Night-vision Goggles): I think Paloma's smart enough to make some use of this, and I don't think she'll go out of her way to seek out trouble. I'm not sure of the battery life on these, but if she adopts a more nocturnal approach, she can duck a lot of dangerous competitors entirely. Wait, hang on, just heard—hmm. Interesting. Add one baseball bat to her armament.

Paloma Salt: I didn't really expect her to draw first blood, but she's handled the aftermath well, avoiding doubling down on violence. Well-equipped, and with an ally who's also expendable, I think she's in good shape as long as she doesn't hideously mismanage the reveal come announcement time.

Paloma Salt: I actually think Paloma caved to the robbery a little more easily than she should've, especially with Ron backing her up. There were a lot of smoother ways to play it, or work Ron into throwing away his gear instead, but it is what it is and she's uninjured and has proven able to enhance her supply situation in the past. We'll see.

Paloma Salt: And here we see in action the consequences of gaining a reputation. Paloma's got fight in her yet, but she keeps working her way into bad situations and then failing to improve them or neatly extricate herself.

Paloma Salt: On the one hand, Paloma got nothing from her drawn-out encounter. On the other, she gave pretty well.

Paloma Salt: Paloma seems to have simmered down, but I feel like the second something doesn't go her way or there's a big opportunity to seize, she'll flare right back up and start swinging again. And I think the people near her are catching those vibes too, so she may find less of a surprise advantage than she's banking on.

Paloma Salt: She's scrappy, and she's proven resourceful. Will that hold? Probably not. An interesting aside: Paloma had the misfortune, as the first killer, to receive almost no benefit of the doubt, even compared to more blatantly malicious murderers. Hers was the name associated with the start of the end, and so in some ways she bears the blame for everything that came after, despite the relatively minor scale of her crime. Not that any of that will help her, not if Tony's death is laid on her head.

Paloma Salt: There's a small possibility that Paloma's already effectively dead and just hasn't realized it yet, but I think more likely most of the damage is cosmetic. Still, she's been hurt and shaken, and shallow bunch that they are, I don't think her peers are going to be any more likely to believe her after that makeover.

Paloma Salt: I'm pretty sure she's replacing all her lost blood with distilled spite by this point. But sooner or later she'll realize that there's nothing left for her, and then she'll crumble into dust.

Paloma Salt: If she actually takes a drag from that, maybe she can recreate that one bit from Ichi The Killer. I wonder how badly it would burn.

Paloma Salt: Finally, Paloma's disintegration completes. She kicked everything off, but I don't think she ever fully understood what she was signing up for by doing so. She was ultimately dragged into something other than what she needed to be, and lost the only things she was fighting for.



Princess McQuillan: I get the suspicion that she's actually not holding it together all that well. There's just something about her that screams one serious, early mistake.

Princess McQuillan (Vial of Samandarin + Vial of Antidote): There's so much poison going around here. I feel like the antidote is rather beside the point; I'd certainly hope that if you poisoned anyone, you'd make very sure you wanted them to suffer/die before doing so.

Princess McQuillan: She caught a good partner in Claudeson, and generally she's proven to be a positive sort of adaptable. I think we have a lot left to see from her after all.

Princess McQuillan: Easy come, easy go. Princess has generally downgraded her allies, but might hold more sway in her current group. And yet, her assertiveness has ebbed somewhat as well. She might be flaming out.

Princess McQuillan: Princess, Princess, what happened to your common sense? Your aspirations? What are you doing? That plan was awful when Valerija proposed it and terrible in the hands of Bryan and Ashlynn. You wear it no better.

Princess McQuillan: Is one terrible plan worse than another?

Princess McQuillan: I'm not totally sure Princess deserves to be below Katelynne but I'm also not at all sure she deserves to be higher than where she is.

Princess McQuillan: Princess was just about to move back up, and then she went and dipped out of her group. If she finds her way back to them, maybe she climbs a tier. On her own? Eh. With Megan? No.

Princess McQuillan: Princess bounced around here—almost went down to the bottom, but then Katelynne found her. She's kept a single spot above by virtue of her wound being somewhere generally survivable and her company having a vested interest in keeping her alive.

Princess McQuillan: Not dead yet, but still not doing great. She has at least Katelynne looking out for her, but I think if push comes to shove she'll find just enough energy to roll herself under the bus rather than inconvenience her truest ally.

Princess McQuillan: I wonder if even Princess is getting sick of waiting to figure out if she's going to die or not. I'm afraid her caretakers may be making some major missteps by dissociating her illness from her wound, though; if she's infected and they don't realize, there's very little to be done about it.

Princess McQuillan: There we go, too much time, too little care, and the last of her energy poured into something other than making sure she'd wake up again.


Shauna Cooke: Waffly and spineless, Shauna's only hope is that whoever runs all over her decides she'd be a useful meat shield or minion and decides to keep her around for a while instead of simply robbing her and then killing her or kicking her to the curb.

Shauna Cooke (Pata): Interesting, but overly-specialized. That's the problem with a lot of these exotic melee implements; they're fascinating to look at and learn about but the vast majority of the class is not sophisticated beyond the point of beating on each other with metal sticks, with their shape being generally beside the point.

Shauna Cooke: I don't think Shauna was brain-damaged by hanging upside-down. I think that's how she always is.

Shauna Cooke: I think even Quinn was a little bit surprised that she let Shauna live.

Shauna Cooke: You know, I have to hand it to Shauna, announcing your intention to continue looting corpses to their surviving friends and then doing so and skipping off with your bounty takes some serious chutzpah. It's not enough for me to have real confidence in her yet, untested as she is, but it's more liveliness than I've seen in her to this point.

Shauna Cooke: Shauna's awkward unwillingness to call Nikki out is potentially actually working as a great deescalating factor in this weird little confrontation. Anywhere else, though, it's still going to land her in hot water.

Shauna Cooke: Shauna and Tanisha have to have more impotent firepower than any other duo right now. When someone kills them and takes their guns, it'll be a very interesting redistribution of potential.

Shauna Cooke: Shauna has been dragged kicking and screaming into it, but she's found something of a spine and something of a purpose. With more proactive and useful allies, she has a chance to make me eat my words about her prior uselessness.

Shauna Cooke: Shauna is in adequate company and hasn't made any particularly horrible gaffes lately, which leaves her in pretty solid shape as the final stretch of the game approaches. It's not everything, certainly, but another happy little thing to consider: so many people are gunning for Erika by now that, barring some truly extraordinary skills on her part, they won't all even have to challenge her. Some can shrug when they hear her come up and say, "Oh well, gave it the old college try, time to pay attention to staying alive myself now."

Shauna Cooke: Shauna has perhaps the most potential of her group to see her fortunes change, either as they absorb Arizona or else as Arizona siphons her off into a duo. The latter option is probably best for the basketball girls in isolation; they have more weaponry and intent than either of the others, and I don't think Arizona will have much patience for hesitation or repeated verbal faux pas.

Shauna Cooke: This is light and tentative, but Shauna has done enough to prove her potential, and with Arizona, one of the more reliable figures left in the game, having a vested interest in her continued survival, I think Shauna is if nothing else a notch above the other two she's been traveling with.

Shauna Cooke: Always double-tap. But, more than that, never turn your back. Still, it was a valiant effort.


Teresa Rojas: This girl will at least stir things up. She's near the bottom of this category, certainly—I don't see her making the final stretch—but I think she'll be a very notable figure on the way there.

Teresa Rojas (Chain Whip): It's complicated and fiddly to use, that's for sure, and there's a very major chance that Teresa won't realize that and will get in over her head anyways. Sometimes, having a weapon really isn't better than having nothing.

Teresa Rojas: She managed not to mess herself up with the whip, but I can't help feeling she's actually the weaker link of the pair with Reuben. When Reuben's telling you to man up and get lethal, you know there's something wrong.

Teresa Rojas: Stabbing Reuben apropos of almost nothing is exactly the sort of harebrained shit-stirring that will make it very hard for Teresa to scramble back up to the realm of the Favored. Her stated goals, it must be said, do similarly little to inspire confidence, and if she suffers any major injuries or setbacks her stock will drop like a cinderblock.

Teresa Rojas: Thank you, Teresa, for that clear and detailed explanation of precisely why you will not be coming out of this alive.

Teresa Rojas: A promising opening with the bear trap turns into yet another ball of nothing, with a bonus life-risking to boot.

Teresa Rojas: Who's playing who? I think both Teresa and Michael are working each other over, but I also think Teresa has no appreciation for just how outclassed she is.

Teresa Rojas: Chaos and violence follow Teresa, or maybe she brings them wherever she goes. She's done better than expected so far, but her lack of seriousness has incredible potential to collapse on her at any moment.

Teresa Rojas: Come to think of it, why are they chasing after Michael, anyways? I think there's a warning to be found in how Teresa has treated her last few partners, but I also think she may be biting off more than she can chew with the company she's keeping now.

Teresa Rojas: Someone smarter or less desperate than Yuka would've probably stuck a knife in Teresa's back already. She's actually lucky they lost track of Michael, since he's both.

Teresa Rojas: If she ditched Yuka out of self preservation, I'd be reconsidering this ranking, but since we're talking about Teresa, I strongly suspect she did it mostly because she thought it was funny.

Teresa Rojas: Too much messing around and playing it cute, too little casting a wide net. Teresa had focus, but focus that's overly single-minded is just tunnel vision, and to the end she valued style over substance.


Valerija Bogdanovic: A close social group is worth more than the ability to butter up random people, and she has both. That said, a preexisting group is also only useful if you find them.

Valerija Bogdanovic (Pickelhaube helmet): I suppose there's a tiny hint of use to be found in a helmet, even an old one. It looks cool. Could be much better, could be much worse.

Valerija Bogdanovic: I'm actually very impressed by the level of thought and theory that went into her plan. The catch is, her idea—whether or not it has merit—places her in direct opposition to every single person who wants to survive, which is a substantial portion of the island's population. She may well do what any good radical does and end up assassinated for her beliefs.

Valerija Bogdanovic: The lack of real progress does good things for Valerija's chances of surviving beyond the short term, but probably not for her morale or team cohesion.

Valerija Bogdanovic: I have to hand it to Val, she's showing herself something of a competent leader with an eye for tactics and an appreciation for the nuance of a situation. If she manages to let go of her ridiculous, hopeless mission, she probably belongs higher up. If she clings to it, well, potential without payoff is nothing.

Valerija Bogdanovic: I praised Val's tactical thinking yesterday, so today I get to put her on blast for a horrible leadership decision. Letting Jessica dip out in the state she was in was a blatantly risky move, and now the whole group is potentially going to bear the cost.

Valerija Bogdanovic: Running off on her own is a flipping of the table. The cards and dice are scattered all over the floor, but I do not trust Val to pick them up and put them into better order than before.

Valerija Bogdanovic: As Valerija's hypocrisy and paranoia grow, so too do the chances that she pushes the wrong person. Her bluff paid off once, but if someone calls, she may be in trouble. Though, I do believe there's a good chance her "broken" gun still has a single bullet in the chamber, whether or not she realizes.

Valerija Bogdanovic: Valerija walked close to the line there, whether or not she realized it. For someone ostensibly bent on a path culminating in her death, she's awfully willing to gamble that others aren't self-destructive. Or is she, perhaps, testing them? Is she reasoning that the only way to deal with her threats is by displaying the willingness to die for a cause that she herself feels? If so, it's flawed but fascinating.

Valerija Bogdanovic: She's been quiet and accomplished nothing. What better way to let the numbers dwindle until your plan falls apart and you just have no choice left but to try to come out on top?

Valerija Bogdanovic: Valerija needs to stop playing stupid games. Every time there's the smallest opportunity, she tries some new faux-clever angle to needlessly complicate the situation. And what has it gotten her so far? A broken gun, and crushed to paste beneath Hel and Lori.

Valerija Bogdanovic: What Val never quite realized is sometimes you have to lie to get your way, even or especially if you are a true believer. So many times, she allowed her righteous ideological fury to leak out, but if she'd been willing to play a little dirtier she could've gotten what she wanted. Is it better to fail and die with a clear conscience than to use a little dishonesty and win the day? Why is coddling an ego worse than shooting a friend? Would it have been that terribly difficult to just placate Lori?



Violet Schmidt: The interesting Violet. She's almost otherworldly in a way, and something about that suggests she'll do better than others now that it is a whole new world. There is some room for her to get caught up in her games and fall flat, though, and she's too nice for her own good.

Violet Schmidt (Winchester Model 88): A gun is a gun, and I remember hearing that these are quite reliable. Or maybe it was some other Winchester model? There's not too much to say here.

Violet Schmidt: She's ramping up. The shot on Dante was bad luck, but I think it's set her mentality; she was awfully willing to pull the trigger again when given the opportunity. I count two maimings and an attempted murder, and all without landing on the announcements.

Violet Schmidt: I think it's clear that Violet is to some degree unraveling, but the form it's taking is setting her on a path that should serve her better than quieter sorts of breakdowns.

Violet Schmidt: The double tap sealed it: Violet's one to keep an eye on, one with a whole lot more in store.

Violet Schmidt: Violet's actions and motivations are quite curious. I think she's still in good shape, but I have to say I'm not an expert in her beliefs, and I may be missing significant signs on that front.

Violet Schmidt: A slower, quieter burn is actually probably good for Violet's state of mind and her chances. A couple days ago, she seemed to be considered one of the major threats to watch out for, despite having acted generally in self defense or by request or mistake. Now, time and space give a better chance for others to accurately assess her, and she may be able to turn to diplomacy once more.

Violet Schmidt: Funny, how so many of the players at the cliffs fall so close together. Violet lost a weapon, and likely more than a few of her remaining marbles, but she fared far better than might have been expected, and she does have that backup weapon.

Violet Schmidt: Those were some interesting survival skills on display. Violet has done a good job navigating the game while walking something of a middle path, which leaves her far more options than many of her peers, especially given she still has a weapon on hand.

Violet Schmidt: That was really messy, with Paloma. Violet can come back from it, but should've never gotten into that situation to begin with. You know what they say about wrestling with a pig...

Violet Schmidt: The cool-down is good, but I'll need to see it last longer before I consider returning Violet to her previous spot. She tunnels too easily, I think, locking herself into destructive cycles, and there are fewer and fewer opportunities to recover from such things.

Violet Schmidt: Mm, it wasn't precisely the predicted destructive spiral, but I will say that Violet was thrown off her game and never fully got her groove back. There were ample opportunities to exercise greater awareness, and that her killer immediately fell prey to exactly the same sin only underlines how sloppy she was at the end.

[Maraoone]

Pushing this question on here following a Discord discussion.

What do you guys think makes a villain villainous? Apologies for invoking Tropes, but at what point would you guys consider the Moral Event Horizon to be, in the context of SOTF?